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A Medium-Scale Bayesian DSGE Model for Kazakhstan with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through 哈萨克斯坦汇率不完全传递的中尺度贝叶斯DSGE模型
IF 1.1
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2021.1999298
N. Abilov
{"title":"A Medium-Scale Bayesian DSGE Model for Kazakhstan with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through","authors":"N. Abilov","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2021.1999298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2021.1999298","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Kazakhstan and the relevance of various frictions in the economy using a medium-scale DSGE model with imperfect exchange rate pass-through. We estimate the model via Bayesian methods and present estimates of structural parameters of the model and highlight the role of various shocks in explaining the actual dynamics of observed variables. In the absence of quality and deseasonalized data, we show that the DSGE model with time-varying markups possesses a reasonable level of accuracy as the one-sided Kalman filter predictions match the dynamics of the observable variables. Posterior estimates of the model show that the long-run growth rate of output is 4.5% per annum and the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices is between 21% and 35% within a quarter. We also find that risk premium shocks have played an important role in determining the inflation rate, the interest rate and the real exchange rate in the economy since 2015.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48733028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Official Visits and Democracy 官方访问与民主
IF 1.1
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2021-09-23 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2021.1977837
Oasis Kodila‐Tedika, S. Khalifa
{"title":"Official Visits and Democracy","authors":"Oasis Kodila‐Tedika, S. Khalifa","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2021.1977837","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2021.1977837","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines whether the number of official visits to and from the U.S. allows the country to adopt a more democratic system of governance. To achieve its objective, the paper develops a model that derives the conditions under which a host invites a guest to persuade or pressure for democratic improvement, and the conditions under which the guest accepts an invitation to visit and decides to improve the quality of democratic governance after the visit. To test our hypothesis, we introduce novel variables that indicate the number of leader’s trips to the U.S., and the number of visits of U.S. Presidents and Secretaries of State to the country, from 1960 to 2015. The estimation results show that the official visits have a statistically significant positive effect on democracy. These results are robust. The paper also uses 3SLS to deal with potential endogeneity. The estimation confirms our previous findings that the official visits have a statistically significant positive effect on democracy. Finally, we explore the channels of transmission and find that American administrations use bilateral trade flows and U.S. aid as an incentive for countries to democratize. This supports our model predictions.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43950695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Offshoring, Welfare, and Flexibility in the Context of US Protectionism 美国保护主义背景下的离岸、福利和灵活性
IF 1.1
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2021-09-10 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2021.1971281
Pablo Agnese, J. Hromcová
{"title":"Offshoring, Welfare, and Flexibility in the Context of US Protectionism","authors":"Pablo Agnese, J. Hromcová","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2021.1971281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2021.1971281","url":null,"abstract":"We reexamine the effects of offshoring in the US economy in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. We use a matching model with endogenous adjustment of educational skills while distinguishing between offshoring of high and low-skill activities. We first show that offshoring leads to a restructuring of the economy through a change in the wage premium where overall welfare is improved. Moreover, in a policy exercise, we show that, if offshoring were to be opposed by a protectionist agenda, the resulting welfare losses could be counterbalanced by increased labor flexibility.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43736216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic Complexity, Economic Growth, and CO2 Emissions: A Panel Data Analysis 经济复杂性、经济增长和二氧化碳排放：面板数据分析
IF 1.1
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2021-09-10 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2021.1975303
Henry Laverde-Rojas, J.C. Correa
{"title":"Economic Complexity, Economic Growth, and CO2 Emissions: A Panel Data Analysis","authors":"Henry Laverde-Rojas, J.C. Correa","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2021.1975303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2021.1975303","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Reducing global warming effects without jeopardizing economic prosperity demands the analysis of the link between these factors. Environmental degradation and economic growth are thought to be related in a non-linear manner, following an inverted-U pattern called the ‘Environmental Kuznets Curve’ (EKC). Despite the many studies seeking empirical support for this relationship, the literature does not provide conclusive findings. By presenting the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) as an explanatory variable, this paper aims at providing a comprehensive analysis of EKC from 86 countries with different development levels, covering the period between 1971 and 2014. Different statistical estimation techniques were used, including an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model, dynamic panel data techniques, and the Sasabuchi–Lind–Mehlum (SLM) test. The results show no clear evidence supporting the idea of EKC, neither for production volumes nor for production sophistication, as captured by ECI. Nonetheless, when ECI increases, pollution levels drop monotonously only for developed countries.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44747646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Voting in a Pandemic: Lessons From the 2020 South Korean Legislative Election 流行病中的投票:从2020年韩国立法选举中吸取的教训
IF 1.1
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2021-09-04 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2022.2090593
I. Kim, Kyoo il Kim
{"title":"Voting in a Pandemic: Lessons From the 2020 South Korean Legislative Election","authors":"I. Kim, Kyoo il Kim","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2022.2090593","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2022.2090593","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we examine the extent to which a government's response to a pandemic affects election outcomes. Using detailed data on South Korea's 21st legislative election, held in April 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that a candidate of the ruling Democratic Party was less preferred in electoral districts where the COVID-19 infection rate was higher. We also find that the South Korean government's successful control of the disease contributed significantly to the overwhelming victory of the ruling party against the leading opposition party. Specifically, our counterfactual analysis predicts that each party would have taken 129 and 102 of the 231 constituency seats considered in the analysis, respectively, had the COVID infection rate been the same as the OECD average during the election period. Given that the observed result was 147 to 84, this implies that 18 electees of the ruling party would have lost to the candidates of the leading opposition party, which in turn would have granted the opposition party the ability to block any attempt by the ruling party to fast-track debatable bills.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45829846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Drivers of Global Trade: A Product-Level Investigation 全球贸易的驱动因素：产品层面的调查
IF 1.1
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2021-08-17 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2021.1983631
H. Yilmazkuday
{"title":"Drivers of Global Trade: A Product-Level Investigation","authors":"H. Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2021.1983631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2021.1983631","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the drivers of global trade at the six-digit product level. The identification is achieved first by estimating the log-linear product-level bilateral trade implications of a model and second by aggregating the fitted estimation results across bilateral countries using Taylor series to obtain global measures in levels for each product. The empirical results suggest that supply-side effects (capturing production or exporting costs in source countries) contribute to changes in global trade more than six times the demand-side effects (capturing economic activity or preferences in destination countries) and more than ten times the effects of bilateral trade costs (capturing bilateral protectionism measures). Several product-level implications follow.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44729994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Decreased Emergency Department Use Following Medicaid Expansion: Evidence from Oregon's Health Insurance Experiment 医疗补助扩大后急诊科使用率下降:来自俄勒冈州健康保险实验的证据
IF 1.1
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2021.1958246
Md Fourkan, Myoung-Jin Keay, Na Kyeong Lee
{"title":"Decreased Emergency Department Use Following Medicaid Expansion: Evidence from Oregon's Health Insurance Experiment","authors":"Md Fourkan, Myoung-Jin Keay, Na Kyeong Lee","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2021.1958246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2021.1958246","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this study, we identify the relationship between Medicaid expansion and emergency department use based on the data from Oregon Health Program. Among the relevant studies, Taubman et al. (2014) provide the positive relationship between two objects with a rather limited approach that leads to the under-identification problem. To avoid the problem, we incorporate a copula regression analysis with an additional endogenous variable. As a result, we find that Medicaid expansion leads to a decrease in emergency department use, which is the opposite result of Taubman et al. (2014).","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44428268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
On the Regulation of Checked Baggage in the Airline Industry 论航空业托运行李的管理
IF 1.1
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2021.1962949
Fernando Barros Jr, R. Castilho, Daniel Galvêas
{"title":"On the Regulation of Checked Baggage in the Airline Industry","authors":"Fernando Barros Jr, R. Castilho, Daniel Galvêas","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2021.1962949","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2021.1962949","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In 2017, the Brazilian civil aviation agency changed the checkedbaggage policy, and airline companies would no longer be required to offer free baggage for its passengers. This paper builds a model to study the effects on the market equilibrium of this change in regulation. We suppose that firms operate in an oligopoly market and compete by choosing tickets and baggage quantity as in a Cournot model. Firms had to offer a free quota of baggage, which was set to zero with the deregulation. Both products enter in the firm's cost function. First, we show that the firm's profits do not change with the liberalization policy. Then, we calibrate the model's parameters using Brazilian data. Backed up by numerical simulations, we show that allowing firms to charge baggage separately from tickets results in a decrease in ticket prices (but an increase in total prices) and an increase in the amount of tickets sold in the market. Consumers are expected to have a larger surplus, hence increasing the market welfare. Our results are robust to variations in the parameters of the model. Highlights The Brazilian civil aviation agency changed the checked baggage policy; Companies are no longer be required to offer free baggage for its passengers; We set a model where firms operate in an oligopoly and study airline industry deregulation; Firm's profits do not change with the liberalization policy; There is a decrease in ticket prices (but an increase in total prices) and an increase in amount of tickets sold in the market.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46728404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Entrepreneurs, Managers, and the Firm Size Distribution 企业家、管理者和企业规模分布
IF 1.1
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2021.1958896
Yang-Seung Lee
{"title":"Entrepreneurs, Managers, and the Firm Size Distribution","authors":"Yang-Seung Lee","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2021.1958896","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2021.1958896","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Small firms can contribute to job creation and aggregate income. However, small firms are volatile and only a fraction of those can transition into larger firms, which create high-paying jobs. Entrepreneurs self-select for the transition. This study examines the pattern of entrepreneur self-selection. The main determinants of the self-selection are ability distribution of entrepreneurs and business environment, which represents skill distribution of laborers and social capital. This study predicts that firm-size distribution is truncated with the entrepreneur self-selection and aggregate income is larger when the business environment is better. This study contributes to the literature on firm-size distribution.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47422270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Aggregate Productivity Growth and Firm Dynamics in Korean Manufacturing 2007–2017 2007-2017年韩国制造业总生产率增长与企业动态
IF 1.1
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2021.1952641
Kyoo il Kim, J. Park, Kyung Ho Song
{"title":"Aggregate Productivity Growth and Firm Dynamics in Korean Manufacturing 2007–2017","authors":"Kyoo il Kim, J. Park, Kyung Ho Song","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2021.1952641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2021.1952641","url":null,"abstract":"We study aggregate productivity growth of the Korean manufacturing industry for the 2007–2017 period after the Great Recession. We find the nature of such growth was quite different for two measures of productivity. For labor productivity, most of growth comes from productivity changes among surviving firms while, for TFP, most of the productivity growth comes from that of new entrants. We observe interesting industry dynamics, as exiting firms contributed positively to aggregate productivity growth, which suggests that the market had gradually eliminated firms of lower productivity in this period. Using the dynamic Olley and Pakes (1996. The dynamics of productivity in the telecommunications equipment industry. Econometrica, 64, 1263–1298.) decomposition, we find that a substantial productivity growth after the Great Recession was due to market share reallocations between firms, but this between-firm contribution has reduced since the recovery. Our industry sector level analysis also demonstrates that there has been heterogeneous productivity growth patterns and components across manufacturing sectors. Finally, we speculate that the wage level also plays a role as a moderating or accelerating factor for different productivity growth paths among surviving, entering, and exiting firms.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10168737.2021.1952641","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48556088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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