Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute最新文献

Heterogeneous Districts, Interests, and Trade Policy 异质地区、利益和贸易政策

Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.21144/wp23-12

Kishore Gawande, Pablo Pinto, Santiago Pinto

引用次数: 0

Disincentive Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits 失业保险福利的抑制效应

Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.21144/wp23-11

Andreas Hornstein, Marios Karabarbounis, André Kurmann, Etienne Lalé, Lien Ta

引用次数: 0

An Alternative Measure of Core Inflation: The Trimmed Persistence PCE Price Index 核心通胀的另一种衡量标准:削减后的持续个人消费支出价格指数

Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.21144/wp23-10

John O'Trakoun

引用次数: 0

Charting the Course: How Does Information about Sea Level Rise Affect the Willingness to Migrate? 绘制路线:关于海平面上升的信息如何影响移民意愿?

Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI: 10.21144/wp23-09

Laura Bakkensen, Quynh Nguyen, Toan Phan, Paul Schuler

{"title":"Charting the Course: How Does Information about Sea Level Rise Affect the Willingness to Migrate?","authors":"Laura Bakkensen, Quynh Nguyen, Toan Phan, Paul Schuler","doi":"10.21144/wp23-09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/wp23-09","url":null,"abstract":"An important yet less studied factor in determining the extent of adaptation to climate change is information: are people adequately informed about their vulnerability to future climate-related risks, and does their willingness to adapt depend on this knowledge? Focusing on how communication about projected sea level rise (SLR) affects the willingness to migrate, we implemented a large randomized control survey experiment with a nationally representative sample of more than 7,000 respondents across all provinces in Vietnam. We randomly assign respondents to different information treatments. We find that providing a simple text-based information treatment about the general extent of Vietnam's exposure to projected SLR increases all respondents' willingness to migrate (including respondents living in areas not vulnerable to SLR). However, a more spatially precise map information treatment—providing the general text along with a map showing Vietnam's projected SLR exposure—leads to a more targeted effect: it only significantly increases the willingness to migrate of respondents currently residing in vulnerable areas. Finally, adding doubt to the information treatments—mentioning an official repudiation of the scientific projection of SLR—does not reduce the treatments' impact. Our findings are inconsistent with the commonly used perfect information benchmark, which assumes that people are fully informed about future climate-related risks. They also highlight the importance of providing spatially precise information in facilitating climate adaptation.","PeriodicalId":35806,"journal":{"name":"Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136062009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring country characteristics that encourage emissions reduction 探索鼓励减排的国别特色

Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.52903/wp2023323

P. Andreou, Sofia Anyfantaki, C. Cabolis, Konstantinos Dellis

引用次数: 0

Forecasting VIX: the illusion of forecast evaluation criteria 预测VIX:预测评价标准的假象

Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.52903/wp2023322

Stavros Degiannakis, Eleftheria Kafousaki

引用次数: 1

Do Costly Internal Equity Injections Reveal Bank Expectations about Post-Crisis Real Outcomes? 昂贵的内部股权注入是否揭示了银行对危机后实际结果的预期?

Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.21144/wp23-03

Arun Gupta, Horacio Sapriza

{"title":"Do Costly Internal Equity Injections Reveal Bank Expectations about Post-Crisis Real Outcomes?","authors":"Arun Gupta, Horacio Sapriza","doi":"10.21144/wp23-03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/wp23-03","url":null,"abstract":"We construct a novel signal of bank expectations utilizing confidential data and a regulatory constraint imposed on bank internal capital markets during the 2008 crisis that made internal equity injections to commercial bank subsidiaries difficult to reverse. When the US government initiated a $176 billion recapitalization program during the crisis, this constraint made it costly ex-ante for multi-bank holding companies (MBHC) to use these funds for the purpose of recapitalizing subsidiaries against future anticipated losses; in contrast, lending the funds to subsidiaries was exempt from the constraint and thus carried an option value for future reallocations across sibling subsidiaries. Several findings emerge. First, we show that MBHCs treated internal equity injections as a scarce resource when emergency funds arrived, whereas single-bank holding companies did not because the constraint was not costly for them. Second, we find that excess internal equity injections by MBHCs form a signal of their expectations for post-crisis subsidiary outlook—i.e., future profitability, supervisory ratings, and credit originations. Third, the geographical aggregation of these individual bank signals predicts the long-run real effects of the 2008 crisis on small businesses across US states—i.e., post-crisis growth in small business revenues, employment, establishments, payroll, and wages. Our study provides a more direct test of \"banks as efficient information producers\" (e.g., Diamond (1984), Fama (1985)), and is the first to show that credible signals of this bank knowledge can be extracted from the internal capital markets, allowing regulators to forecast in real time a geographical rank-order for post-crisis real outcomes at small firms. This new policy tool can be seen as a potential side benefit of government-sponsored bank recapitalization programs, of which there have been 33 in the past 40 years worldwide.","PeriodicalId":35806,"journal":{"name":"Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135301350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public and private liquidity during crises times: evidence from Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to Greek banks 危机时期的公共和私人流动性:来自希腊银行的紧急流动性援助(ELA)的证据

Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.52903/wp2022304

Antonis Kotidis, Dimitris Malliaropulos, E. Papaioannou

引用次数: 9

Banking union: state of play and proposals for the way forward 银行业联盟:现状和未来的建议

Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute Pub Date : 2022-07-20 DOI: 10.52903/wp2022303

Kornilia Vikelidou, Athanasios Tagkalakis

引用次数: 1

Forecasting actuarial time series: a practical study of the effect of statistical pre-adjustments 预测精算时间序列:统计预调整效果的实际研究

Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute Pub Date : 2022-06-17 DOI: 10.52903/wp2022297

A. Milionis, N. Galanopoulos, P. Hatzopoulos, Aliki Sagianou

{"title":"Forecasting actuarial time series: a practical study of the effect of statistical pre-adjustments","authors":"A. Milionis, N. Galanopoulos, P. Hatzopoulos, Aliki Sagianou","doi":"10.52903/wp2022297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52903/wp2022297","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most important risks in the actuarial industry is the longevity risk. The accurate prediction of mortality rates plays a crucial role in the management of the aforementioned risk. Such predictions are performed by modelling the mortality rates using mortality models. Aiming at possible improvements in such forecasts, in this work we examine the effect of data transformation and “linearization” on the quality of time series forecasts of mortality rate data. By the term time series “linearization” is meant the treatment of causes that disrupt the underlying stochastic process measured by a time series. The dataset consists of the time series of the period indices uncovering the mortality trend for England-Wales according to published mortality models. Results indicate a clear improvement in interval forecasts. However, the result on point forecasts is not as clear as is the case of interval forecasts. The documented improvement in interval forecasts can significantly affect the Solvency Capital Requirement, and subsequently the Solvency Ratio for a pension fund. Such an improvement might put some pension providers at a competitive advantage as they have less capital locked in their liabilities. In addition, it was confirmed that the transformed-linearized time series of mortality rates satisfy to a higher extent the need for normality as compared to the original series.","PeriodicalId":35806,"journal":{"name":"Working Paper - Chr. Michelson Institute","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91379039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0