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Noise and bias – some controversies raised by the book ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment’, written by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein 噪音和偏见——由丹尼尔·卡尼曼、奥利维尔·西伯尼、卡斯·r·桑斯坦合著的《噪音:人类判断的缺陷》一书引发了一些争议

Przegląd Statystyczny Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.8792

M. Szreder

{"title":"Noise and bias – some controversies raised by the book ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment’, written by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein","authors":"M. Szreder","doi":"10.5604/01.3001.0015.8792","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0015.8792","url":null,"abstract":"The paper reviews and discusses the statistical aspects of the phenomenon called ‘noise’ which Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Prize winning psychologist, and his colleagues present in their new book entitled ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment’. Noise is understood by the authors as an unexpected and undesirable variation present in people’s judgments. The variability of judgments influences decisions which are made on the basis of those judgments and, consequently, may have a negative impact on the operations of various institutions. This is the main concern presented and analyzed in this book. The objective of this paper is to look at the relationship between bias and noise – the two major components of the mean squared error (MSE) – from a different perspective which is absent in the book. Although the author agrees that each of the two components contributes equally to MSE, he claims that in some circumstances a reduction of noise can make accurate inference not less, but more difficult. It is justified that the actual impact of noise cannot be accurately determined without considering both bias and noise simultaneously.\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":357447,"journal":{"name":"Przegląd Statystyczny","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129619531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Extended Enders and Siklos test for threshold cointegration 阈值协整的扩展Enders和Siklos检验

Przegląd Statystyczny Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.8669

M. Osińska, Maciej Gałecki

引用次数: 1

The minimal-time growth problem and ‘very strong’ turnpike theorem 最小时间增长问题和“极强”收费公路定理

Przegląd Statystyczny Pub Date : 2022-03-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.7799

E. Panek

{"title":"The minimal-time growth problem and ‘very strong’ turnpike theorem","authors":"E. Panek","doi":"10.5604/01.3001.0015.7799","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0015.7799","url":null,"abstract":"This paper refers to the author's previous work, in which the ‘weak’ turnpike theorem in the stationary Gale economy was proved. This theorem states that each optimal growth process {y*(t)}t*1t=0 that leads the economy in the shortest possible time t*1 from the (initial) state of y0 to the set of target/postulated states Y1 almost always runs in the neighbourhood of the production turnpike, where the economy remains in a specific dynamic equilibrium (peak growth equilibrium). This paper presents a proof of the ‘very strong’ turnpike theorem in the stationary Gale economy, which states that if the optimal process (the solution to the minimaltime growth problem) reaches a turnpike in a certain period of time tˇ < t*1 - 1, then it stays on it everywhere else, except for, at most, final period t*1. The obtained result confirms the wellknown Samuelson hypothesis about the specific turnpike stability of optimal growth paths in multiproduct/multisectoral von Neumann-Leontief-Gale-type models, also in the case where the growth criterion is not the (normally assumed) utility of production but the time needed by the economy to achieve the postulated target level or volume of production.\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":357447,"journal":{"name":"Przegląd Statystyczny","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129519886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparison of methods used for filling partially unobserved contingency tables 用于填写部分未观察到的列联表的方法比较

Przegląd Statystyczny Pub Date : 2022-03-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.7797

M. Kot, B. Kamiński

引用次数: 0

Influence of previous experience and socioeconomic characteristics on willingness to pay for physiotherapy in Poland 波兰以前的经验和社会经济特征对支付物理治疗意愿的影响

Przegląd Statystyczny Pub Date : 2022-03-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.7798

Justyna Proniewicz

引用次数: 0

A genetic algorithm for vehicle routing in logistic networks with practical constraints 具有实际约束的物流网络中车辆路径的遗传算法

Przegląd Statystyczny Pub Date : 2021-12-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.5584

Grzegorz Koloch, Michał Lewandowski, Marcin Zientara, Grzegorz Grodecki, Piotr Matuszak, Igor Kantorski, Adam Nowacki

{"title":"A genetic algorithm for vehicle routing in logistic networks with practical constraints","authors":"Grzegorz Koloch, Michał Lewandowski, Marcin Zientara, Grzegorz Grodecki, Piotr Matuszak, Igor Kantorski, Adam Nowacki","doi":"10.5604/01.3001.0015.5584","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0015.5584","url":null,"abstract":"We optimise a postal delivery problem with time and capacity constraints imposed on vehicles and nodes of the logistic network. Time constraints relate to the duration of routes, whereas capacity constraints concern technical characteristics of vehicles and postal operation outlets. We consider a method which can be applied to a brownfield scenario, in which capacities of outlets can be relaxed and prospective hubs identified. As a solution, we apply a genetic algorithm and test its properties both in small case studies and in a simulated problem instance of a larger (i.e. comparable with real-world instances) size. We show that the genetic operators we employ are capable of switching between solutions based on direct origin-to-destination routes and solutions based on transfer connections, depending on what is more beneficial in a given problem instance. Moreover, the algorithm correctly identifies cases in which volumes should be shipped directly, and those in which it is optimal to use transfer connections within a single problem instance, if an instance in question requires such a selection for optimality. The algorithm is thus suitable for determining hubs and satellite locations. All considerations presented in this paper are motivated by real-life problem instances experienced by the Polish Post, the largest postal service provider in Poland, in its daily plans of delivering postal packages, letters and pallets.\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":357447,"journal":{"name":"Przegląd Statystyczny","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116474350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Forecasting currency covariances using machine learning tree-based algorithms with low and high prices 使用基于机器学习树的算法预测低、高价格的货币协方差

Przegląd Statystyczny Pub Date : 2021-12-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.5582

Sylwester Bejger, P. Fiszeder

引用次数: 1

Estimation of Value-at-Risk using Weibull distribution – portfolio analysis on the precious metals market 用威布尔分布-组合分析估算贵金属市场的风险价值

Przegląd Statystyczny Pub Date : 2021-10-18 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.2731

Dominik Krężołek

引用次数: 0

Substitution between production factors and intermediate inputs in the light of KLEMS growth accounting for Poland 波兰KLEMS增长核算中生产要素与中间投入之间的替代

Przegląd Statystyczny Pub Date : 2021-10-18 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.2729

D. Kotlewski, Mirosław Błażej

{"title":"Substitution between production factors and intermediate inputs in the light of KLEMS growth accounting for Poland","authors":"D. Kotlewski, Mirosław Błażej","doi":"10.5604/01.3001.0015.2729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0015.2729","url":null,"abstract":"The generally adopted view is that the gross-output-based MFP is the most correct in terms of methodology, and the value-added-based MFP is its imperfect substitute performed when some data are missing. In this paper, however, performing both of them and comparing their results is proposed as a valuable means to studying the development of outsourcing in the economy. The paper presents the elaboration of the methodology for the latter, which is its main contribution to the field. The case of the Polish economy is used as an applicative example (covering the period between 2005 and 2016), as KLEMS growth accounting has recently been implemented in Poland. The results demonstrate that around the year 2011, the expansion of outsourcing ceased. Since outsourcing was one of the main processes of the Polish transition, this observation can be considered as an indication of the maturing of the market economy in Poland. Moreover, KLEMS growth accounting makes it possible to study this issue through NACE activities, i.e. at the industry level. It shows that manufacturing (section C of NACE) is predominantly responsible for the situation described above, which is the main empirical finding of the study. The dominant role of manufacturing is also confirmed by some other sectoral observations of lesser importance. The methodology developed in this paper can potentially be applied to other countries for which both kinds of MFP are performed.\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":357447,"journal":{"name":"Przegląd Statystyczny","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124225364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How the shadow economy can be detected in National Accounts 如何在国民经济核算中发现影子经济

Przegląd Statystyczny Pub Date : 2021-10-18 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.2730

S. Oinonen, M. Virén

引用次数: 0