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Reputation aspects in investment decision making: contribution to corporate security 投资决策中的声誉方面：对公司安全的贡献
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management Pub Date : 2018-03-09 DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011310
M. Bakumenko, A. Sigal
{"title":"Reputation aspects in investment decision making: contribution to corporate security","authors":"M. Bakumenko, A. Sigal","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011310","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with a substantial threat for corporate security - decline in corporate reputation. Corporate reputation is regarded as the most important intangible asset of corporations. Investment project implementation may greatly affect corporate reputation, both positively and negatively. Therefore, investment decision-making requires consideration of how project implementation affects corporate reputation and application of ethics and social responsibility. We suggest an index to consider the impact of investment project implementation on corporate reputation at the pre-investment phase – reputation improvement index. To evaluate weight numbers, which are part of reputation improvement index, the analytic hierarchy process is recommended. Also, we propose a model to evaluate weight numbers, based on solution of a respective matrix game, and give a case study. We conclude that reputation improvement index, along with traditional methods of investment decision making and risk consideration, lowers ...","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"111"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45000528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Hybrid logical and probabilistic models for management of socioeconomic safety 社会经济安全管理的混合逻辑和概率模型
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management Pub Date : 2018-03-09 DOI: 10.1504/ijram.2018.10011309
V. Karasev, E. Solozhentsev
{"title":"Hybrid logical and probabilistic models for management of socioeconomic safety","authors":"V. Karasev, E. Solozhentsev","doi":"10.1504/ijram.2018.10011309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijram.2018.10011309","url":null,"abstract":"Hybrid logical and probabilistic (LP) models and software based on 'top-economics' are presented. Hybrid LP risk models contain the following subjects in problem decisions: government, legislative authorities, businesses, scientists, public opinion and objects (tasks), which are the sense of the problem. Statements of 'top-economics', its features and advantages are stated. The concept 'invalidity' in economics is discussed by analogy with reliability and safety in engineering. New Boolean events-propositions and new LP risk models for economic safety management are described.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"88"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45488804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Logical and probabilistic analysis of the reliability of the metallurgical complex electric supply 冶金综合供电可靠性的逻辑概率分析
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management Pub Date : 2018-03-09 DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011303
Vadim A. Alexeev
{"title":"Logical and probabilistic analysis of the reliability of the metallurgical complex electric supply","authors":"Vadim A. Alexeev","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011303","url":null,"abstract":"The paper deals with the problem of choosing the preferable electric supply scheme of the metallurgical complex from the reliability problem of view. The algorithm of solving this problem using the logical probabilistic approach is presented. The structural, logical and probabilistic models of the system's reliability have been developed for three power supply connection options. Computational studies have been conducted, and the contributions of the elements into the reliability of the system have been determined.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41946113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Top-economics: management of socioeconomic safety 顶层经济学:社会经济安全管理
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management Pub Date : 2018-03-09 DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011308
E. Solozhentsev
{"title":"Top-economics: management of socioeconomic safety","authors":"E. Solozhentsev","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011308","url":null,"abstract":"This paper suggests and develops a new scientific discipline 'top-economics' and introduces invalidity in economy by analogy with failure in reliability in engineering. We adduce definitions of top-economics and invalidity in economics. We call advantages and features of top-economics. The paper describes the components of top-economics: methods, models, technologies, problems, objects and special software. New types of Boolean events-propositions are introduced and new types of logical and probabilistic risk models for management of socioeconomic safety of social and economic systems are proposed. The synthesis method of events probabilities in logical and probabilistic risk models is discussed. An example of managing of socioeconomic safety in Russia is provided. It illustrates the methods of risk analysis and management, as well as the management of the economic war with sanctions.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"65"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49049550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Mathematics for management of socio-economic system safety 社会经济系统安全管理数学
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management Pub Date : 2018-03-09 DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011307
E. Karaseva
{"title":"Mathematics for management of socio-economic system safety","authors":"E. Karaseva","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011307","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we are considering that mathematics is useful for economists to manage the safety of socio-economic systems. Logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models, new mathematics, complex calculations and specialised software are considered. The concepts of invalidity in economics and top-economics are presented. New Boolean events-propositions and LP risk models are described. Techniques of synthesis of casual event probability by one or several experts are stated. Specialised softwares Arbiter and Expa are described.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"50"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45190367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mathematical modelling of grain production profitability in Ukraine taking into account risks 考虑风险的乌克兰粮食生产盈利能力数学模型
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management Pub Date : 2017-11-09 DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008738
P. Hrytsiuk, T. Babych
{"title":"Mathematical modelling of grain production profitability in Ukraine taking into account risks","authors":"P. Hrytsiuk, T. Babych","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008738","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008738","url":null,"abstract":"Ukraine is an agrarian state. One of the most important branches of agriculture sector is grain production. High yield of grain is a basis of Ukrainian food security. Therefore the task of developing a reliable mathematical model forecasting the grain production profitability is urgent. Regression analysis and fuzzy simulation principles have been used for building a grain production profitability depending model from crop production in the last two years, average price of grain in the country and grain production costs. The values of profitability forecasting for 2015 obtained by three different methods are convergent to each other. Contribution of factors' changes such as yield, the price of grain and the cost of grain production into fluctuation of grain production profitability have been also analysed.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":"307"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46216863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Strategic supply risk: Exploring the risks deriving from a buying firm being of low importance for its suppliers 战略供应风险：探讨采购公司对其供应商重要性较低的风险
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management Pub Date : 2017-11-09 DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2017.087904
M. Reichenbachs, Holger Schiele, Petra Hoffmann
{"title":"Strategic supply risk: Exploring the risks deriving from a buying firm being of low importance for its suppliers","authors":"M. Reichenbachs, Holger Schiele, Petra Hoffmann","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2017.087904","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2017.087904","url":null,"abstract":"This paper merges two important concepts: preferred customer and supply risk. As not all customers are of the same strategic importance to a supplier, some customers are treated preferentially. Strategic supply risk describes the risk for buyers of not being a preferred customer. This qualitative study explores the concept of strategic supply risk, its sources, indicators and mitigation tactics as well as its connection to social exchange theory. The findings suggest that strategic supply risk is likely to be present when among others the buyer accounts for a minor portion of supplier turnover. One important strategic supply risk indicator seems to be changes in the supplier's attitude toward the buyer. Aligning strategies, for example, can be a useful tactic for reducing strategic supply risk, whereas finding alternative sources of supply supports the mitigation of a buyer's strategic supply risk. The research enhances supply risk management research and adds a risk component to the literature on customer attractiveness and preferred customers. Additionally, this research presents initial guidelines for managers on how to set up an effective strategic supply risk management system.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":"350-373"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/IJRAM.2017.087904","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46298001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
Current volatility as a measure of market risk 当前波动率是衡量市场风险的指标
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management Pub Date : 2017-11-09 DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008741
M. Kussy
{"title":"Current volatility as a measure of market risk","authors":"M. Kussy","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008741","url":null,"abstract":"The article offers the author's approach to the definition of market risk and specifies its differences from the economic and financial risks. The necessity of taking into account the social component in the analysis of market risk is shown. Two different types of market risk are identified. Convincingly, the article shows the inconsistency of the use of the existing methods for measuring volatility as a measure of market risk, as defined in the article. The article puts forward a new kind of market volatility, which is qualitatively different from the types of volatility considered in the article. By means of the Grassberger-Procaccia entropy, we prove that the measure of current volatility proposed by the author can be adequately used as a measure of market risk. The algorithms of the current volatility measure's use as a quantitative measure of market risk of both types are offered.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":"333"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48080778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Economic and mathematical modelling of food security in Ukraine 乌克兰粮食安全的经济和数学模型
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management Pub Date : 2017-11-09 DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008736
O. Kardash, L. Hladun
{"title":"Economic and mathematical modelling of food security in Ukraine","authors":"O. Kardash, L. Hladun","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008736","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008736","url":null,"abstract":"The economic and mathematical model of food security in Ukraine was made in the form of regressive dependence of the integral index of food security on the singled out factors: provision, independence, physical accessibility, quality and safety. For this, a set of indicators of food security was replaced by fewer numbers of the most significant uncorrelated components (factors). A component analysis was taken as a scientific and methodological basis of this replacement. The results obtained from the verification of the model indicate its adequacy to statistical data, the significance of the model as a whole and its parameters, the close direct linear relationship between the factors and the integral index of food security. Validation of the constructed food security model was based on the method of element-by-element cross-validation.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":"285"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44106061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
General physical principle in dynamic model of reliability 可靠性动态模型中的一般物理原理
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management Pub Date : 2017-11-09 DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008740
V. A. Prourzin
{"title":"General physical principle in dynamic model of reliability","authors":"V. A. Prourzin","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2017.10008740","url":null,"abstract":"The general approach to the description of dynamic models of reliability is offered for variable loads. The approach is based on a general physical principle of reliability offered by us for dynamic systems. The dynamic system presents a change of vector of state variables of a system, depending on initial states and loads. The physical principle of reliability postulates existence of such set of state variables for which reliability of an engineering system at current time is determined only by current values of these variables and does not depend on their previous history. As consequence, the non-negative hazard of failure function is defined in the state system space. As a result, examination of reliability of an engineering system with variable loads is reduced to solution of ordinary differential equation system. Expressions for reliability indexes are obtained. Results of the work can have applications in the reliability, safety and risk theory, in accelerated tests, in the area of fatigue damage accumulations at variable loads, in diagnostics, in medicine.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":"322"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47217967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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