{"title":"Chapter Nine: Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/04597222.2022.2022935","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2022.2022935","url":null,"abstract":"France is reshaping its military posture in Africa but will retain its significant role in operations in the Sahel, as well as in security assistance more broadly. The long-running Barkhane operation will draw down, with emphasis instead on the special forces-focused Takuba mission which will feature significant French components as well as troops from European partners. Sweden took over command of Takuba, from France, in November 2021 and will command the mission until early 2022.","PeriodicalId":35165,"journal":{"name":"The Military Balance","volume":"21 1","pages":"436 - 506"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75286430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Chapter Five: Russia and Eurasia","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/04597222.2022.2022930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2022.2022930","url":null,"abstract":"Russia’s core defence budget saw a mild nominal increase in 2021 but fell by 1.8% in real terms as the inflation rate reached 5.9%. Similarly, while total military expenditure is estimated to have reached RUB4.59 trillion (USD62.2 billion) in 2021, up from RUB4.46trn (USD61.6bn) the year before, this also constitutes a reduction in real terms of 5.2% down to USD55.7bn (constant 2015 USD). In late 2021, attention was again focused on Russia’s build-up of forces on the border with Ukraine and in Crimea. Russia’s April 2021 deployments in the same areas, under the pretext of conducting surprise exercises, involved between 25% and 33% of Russia’s total deployable ground forces. The November buildup again highlighted not just the resources Moscow could mobilise as part of its deployments, but also the supporting civilian – as well as military – infrastructure that enabled it to do so. Against the background of the continuing delay in developing and delivering armoured vehicles based on the new Armata, Kurganets-25 and Bumerang platforms, the MoD continues to modernise the current armouredvehicle fleet. The MoD signed an additional contract for an undeclared quantity of T-90M main battle tanks; some of these will be again upgraded from T-90As. There was particular attention on the Airborne Forces (VDV) in exercise Zapad 2021. For the first time, the VDV practised a full battalion landing with BMD-4M airborne combat vehicles. During the same exercise a full battalion also carried out a night airborne assault. The navy continued testing sea-launched 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic missiles, including the first surface and submerged firings from a submarine, the Yasen (Project 885) vessel Severodvinsk, in October. The first serial-production Tsirkon weapons are scheduled to go into service in 2022. The Aerospace Forces has begun taking delivery of the first of up to 24 upgraded Su-34 Fullback bombers, which include a broader set of weapons and the ability to be fitted with expanded weapons and reconnaissance pods. The first aircraft are assigned to the 2nd Regiment at Chelyabinsk in the Central Military District, with the type likely replacing the Su-24MR Fencer E.","PeriodicalId":35165,"journal":{"name":"The Military Balance","volume":"88 1","pages":"164 - 217"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88618372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Index of countries and territories","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/04597222.2022.2022941","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2022.2022941","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35165,"journal":{"name":"The Military Balance","volume":"43 1","pages":"528 - 528"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81718432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Chapter One: Domain trends","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/04597222.2022.2022926","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2022.2022926","url":null,"abstract":" Global defence expenditure reached USD1.92 billion in 2021, 3.4% higher than 2020 levels. However, surging inflation in all regions meant this amounted to a 1.8% reduction in real terms. If inflation continues to increase, this will put pressure on defence budgets as factor-input costs increase, while military personnel may call for higher wages to keep pace with cost-of-living increases. In 2020, the United States was the primary driver of global defence-spending growth. However, US defence-budget authority fell to USD754bn in 2021, from USD775bn in 2020. Inflation rose from 3.1% to 6.4% in 2021, which meant that the budget contracted by 6% in real terms. High inflation rates also resulted in real spending contractions in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and Russia and Eurasia, even though nominal increases were evident across most regions. In real terms, Latin American spending is at the same level as in 2009. Meanwhile, economic constraints in sub-Saharan Africa have continued to subdue defence expenditure. In real terms, the region’s spending in 2021 is the same as it was in 2012. Middle Eastern regional defence spending has been relatively stable in nominal terms, but with rates of inflation averaging 6.9% annually (and in some countries exceeding 30%), there have been sizeable real-terms reductions, with cuts averaging 3.6% annually in the four years to 2021.","PeriodicalId":35165,"journal":{"name":"The Military Balance","volume":"17 1","pages":"7 - 13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82177374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Chapter Three: North America","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/04597222.2022.2022928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2022.2022928","url":null,"abstract":"While the US defence budget’s USD715 billion top line constitutes an USD11.27bn increase on the enacted FY2021 US defence budget, the FY2022 budget request is essentially flat in real terms when adjusted for inflation. Reflecting the Pentagon’s focus on the Indo-Pacific, the air force and navy budgets are set to increase, making up 52% of the top-line DoD budget in FY2022, up from 48% in the enacted FY21 budget. The US conducted its Global Posture Review during 2021. The Review was anticipated to reshape global United States military deployments, likely heralding reductions in all regions bar Europe and the IndoPacific, where there were to be increased infrastructure developments with a focus on survivability. The US army is recapitalising its mobile air defence. The first prototype M-SHORAD Increment 1 vehicles arrived in Germany in early 2021. Meanwhile, M-SHORAD Increment 2 is a directed-energy variant. Another project, the Indirect Fire Protection Capability (IFPC) Increment 2, is designed to tackle threats including from uninhabited aerial systems and cruise missiles. While uncertainty remains over plans to increase the size of the US navy’s fleet, there has been consistent focus on an eventual fleet that is more distributed, with a shift in balance to smaller surface combatants and with significant numbers of uninhabited surface and underwater vehicles. The US air force’s stated acquisition target of 1,763 F-35As is coming under scrutiny. F-15EX Eagle IIs are being bought to replace F-15Cs, and there was talk of restarting F-16 acquisition or even building a new successor. Meanwhile, a demonstrator for elements of the Next-Generation Air Dominance programme reportedly flew in 2021. In September, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said that five B-21 bombers were in various states of production. Air transport and air refuelling remain essential to US expeditionary operations, as the evacuation from Afghanistan showed. This also highlighted the importance of overseas bases for logistical support. There are as yet no identified replacements for the C-17 or C-5M; a C-17 sustainment contract was awarded in late 2021. Canada and the US are building more icebreakers. Three new heavy icebreakers are being procured for the US Coast Guard, to be followed by three medium icebreakers. In June 2021, the Royal Canadian Navy commissioned the first of its six planned Harry DeWolfclass Arctic Offshore Patrol Ships.","PeriodicalId":35165,"journal":{"name":"The Military Balance","volume":"20 1","pages":"26 - 63"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87562301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Chapter Two: Defence and military analysis","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/04597222.2022.2022927","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2022.2022927","url":null,"abstract":"value will be questioned and it may be sidelined and have its level of funding reviewed (perhaps under the guise of an administrative reorganisation). At any time, but perhaps more so today than before, such organisations are faced with competing sources of information, ranging from domestic and foreign newspapers, magazines and journals and the output of think tanks to personal contacts, special advisers and meetings with foreign leaders. Accordingly, it may be tempting for ministers, senior civilian officials and military officers to question what extra value their intelligence organisation can offer. However, ‘open source’ (often referred to as ‘publicly available’) information is nothing new. At the turn of the nineteenth century, Vice Admiral Nelson’s multilingual chaplain, and effectively his intelligence officer, would go through and summarise foreign newspapers and pamphlets. More recently, in the UK, a key conclusion of the Franks Report on the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982 focused on open-source material:","PeriodicalId":35165,"journal":{"name":"The Military Balance","volume":"27 1","pages":"14 - 25"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82720225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Chapter Seven: Middle East and North Africa","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/04597222.2022.2022932","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2022.2022932","url":null,"abstract":" Regional defence spending declined in real terms for the fourth consecutive year. While spending is the same as in 2017, in nominal terms, inflation rates averaging 6.9% annually mean that real-terms reductions have been sizeable, with cuts averaging 3.6% annually in the four years to 2021. The US Global Posture Review was expected to set out Washington’s thinking on its future dispositions in the region, though little change was announced on release and the review called for further study of regional requirements. In July 2021, the US announced that its combat mission in Iraq would come to a close by the end of the year, though some US forces would continue to operate in an advisory role. NATO had earlier announced that it was expanding its NATO Mission Iraq. The Abraham Accords normalised relations between Israel, Bahrain and the UAE, presaged increased security and defence cooperation and appeared to unlock important arms deals. In January, letters of agreement were signed concerning a proposed UAE purchase of F-35A Lightning II combat aircraft. There have been bilateral meetings between defence officials and, in November, a small maritime-security exercise in the Red Sea involving the US and the three states. There is growing defence cooperation with extraregional states. Cyprus, France, Greece, Israel and the UAE increased diplomatic coordination and took part in the Iniochos air exercise in April. In late year France secured a major sale of 80 Rafale combat aircraft to the UAE. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also sent combat aircraft to Greece to take part in exercises. Egypt’s naval capabilities are growing. In 2021 a new naval base was opened at Ras Gargoub, while a fourth Type-209/1400 submarine and a second FREMM frigate (built by Italy’s Fincantieri) was commissioned. In October it was announced that Egypt would buy the UK’s two decommissioned Fort Rosalie-class logistics ships.","PeriodicalId":35165,"journal":{"name":"The Military Balance","volume":"13 1","pages":"318 - 377"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91056048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Index of country/territory abbreviations","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/04597222.2022.2022940","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2022.2022940","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35165,"journal":{"name":"The Military Balance","volume":"1 1","pages":"527 - 527"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76182814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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