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Analysing the Armey curve based on the Fourier cointegration approach for Turkey 基于傅里叶协整方法的土耳其陆军曲线分析
Economic Annals Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/eka2336139k
Süleyman Kasal
{"title":"Analysing the Armey curve based on the Fourier cointegration approach for Turkey","authors":"Süleyman Kasal","doi":"10.2298/eka2336139k","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2336139k","url":null,"abstract":"One major theoretical and empirical issue that has dominated fiscal policy for many years concerns the optimal size of government. Armey (1995) believes that the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth is an inverted U-shape, arguing that there is an optimal point where government expenditures maximise economic growth. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the validity of the Armey curve for Turkey in the period 1998:Q1-2020:Q4 using the Fourier cointegration method. The study has found that the Armey curve is valid for Turkey. The evidence indicates that the optimal size of government in Turkey is equal to approximately 18.5% of GDP. This paper highlights that the notion that government expenditure increases economic growth should not be seen as the only policy option. A key policy priority should therefore be to design fiscal policies that take into account this non-linear relationship.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Religious and social group diversity in borrowing and spending behaviour: Analysis of survey results from rural West Bengal, India 借贷和消费行为中的宗教和社会群体多样性:印度西孟加拉邦农村调查结果分析
Economic Annals Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/eka2336051p
Rana Poddar, Tanmoyee Banerjee, Ajitava Raychaudhuri
{"title":"Religious and social group diversity in borrowing and spending behaviour: Analysis of survey results from rural West Bengal, India","authors":"Rana Poddar, Tanmoyee Banerjee, Ajitava Raychaudhuri","doi":"10.2298/eka2336051p","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2336051p","url":null,"abstract":"India is a nation characterised by diversity in religion and caste. This paper attempts to determine whether diversity among religious and social groups has any impact on the borrowing and spending behaviour of households in West Bengal, India. We conduct a Fairlie decomposition analysis to evaluate the religious and caste differences in the socio-economic variables that mostly contribute to the disparity in institutional borrowing, use of institutional loans, and use of banking services using a household-level primary survey in two districts of West Bengal, India. The results of the decomposition analysis in terms of social group differences and religious group differences show that households belonging to the unreserved category and the Hindu population are more likely to hold savings bank accounts, make use of institutional borrowing, and use loans for production purposes than different reserved categories and the Muslim population, respectively. The gap between the reserved and unreserved populations and the Hindu and Muslim populations in terms of institutional borrowing and the use of loans for production purposes widens for regular wage earners and casual labourers in nonagriculture. To reduce the gap between social and religious groups, occupation categories play a major role. The implication is that wider access to financial services should be provided to all sections of the population.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Parenthood and labour market outcomes in Serbia 塞尔维亚的生育和劳动力市场结果
Economic Annals Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/eka2232007l
Lara Lebedinski, Marko Vladisavljević
{"title":"Parenthood and labour market outcomes in Serbia","authors":"Lara Lebedinski, Marko Vladisavljević","doi":"10.2298/eka2232007l","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2232007l","url":null,"abstract":"Using the Labour Force Survey data for the period 2014 to 2018 for Serbia, this paper explores the effect of parenthood on the labour market trajectories of parents, the so-called ?parenthood penalty?. We find that mothers are less likely than non-mothers to be active in the labour market when their children are very young, but this effect is transitory, and mothers of older children are actually more likely to be active than non-mothers. Similarly, we observe that mothers of small children are less likely to work overtime than non-mothers, but also that both parents of older children are more likely to engage in overtime work than men and women without children. We find a motherhood penalty in terms of hourly wages for mothers with younger children, but the penalty is not significant as children become older. By contrast, fathers are more likely to be active than non-fathers. We do not find an effect of fatherhood on hours worked or hourly wages. Overall, our results suggest that the motherhood penalty is present in Serbia in the early stages when children are young, but motherhood does not seem to have lasting effects on the labour market participation, hours worked, or wage rates of mothers. We do not find evidence of a fatherhood bonus, but we find that fathers are more likely to be active than non-fathers.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68476709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The quality of budgetary institutions in Africa: Exploring the drivers 非洲预算制度的质量:探索其驱动因素
Economic Annals Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/eka2232127a
A. Adeniran, M. Ekeruche, Chimere O. Iheonu
{"title":"The quality of budgetary institutions in Africa: Exploring the drivers","authors":"A. Adeniran, M. Ekeruche, Chimere O. Iheonu","doi":"10.2298/eka2232127a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2232127a","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the economic and political determinants of the observed variations in the quality of budgetary institutions in 31 selected African countries from 2005 to 2017. The quality of budgetary institutions is measured using the World Bank?s Country Policy and Institution Assessment score. The empirical analysis utilises Ordinary Least Squares, two-stage least squares, two-step generalized method of moment, and the random effects probit and mixed effects models. The most significant and robust determinants of budgetary institution quality were found to be the level of external debt, foreign aid, the extent of control of corruption, and the level of voice and accountability. The results also reveal that foreign aid, control of corruption, and voice/accountability increase the probability of an improved quality of budgetary institutions. These findings resonate with the broader discussion on the role of political will and the need for the preferences of domestic actors to be aligned in order to deliver institutional reform in Africa.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68476839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Testing the validity of the BARS curve for Turkey 检验土耳其BARS曲线的有效性
Economic Annals Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/eka2232153d
A. Durucan
{"title":"Testing the validity of the BARS curve for Turkey","authors":"A. Durucan","doi":"10.2298/eka2232153d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2232153d","url":null,"abstract":"This study has two main aims: to test the validity of the BARS curve in Turkey for the period 1974-2016 and to estimate the optimal government size for that period and compare it with the current situation. It uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test and quadratic equation methods. The empirical findings of the study confirm the validity of the BARS curve by providing strong evidence for the existence of an inverted U-shaped long-run relationship between government size and economic growth. Unlike many previous studies that use a single proxy measure for government size, this study uses all available fundamental indicators and their sub-components. The empirical results show that for the period studied all proxy measures of government size exceed the optimal except for total central government budget expenditure and defence expenditure. Therefore, decreasing the size of the government, other than for these two indicators, will increase economic growth in the long run.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68476853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer savings and retail sales: Evidence from a postcommunist transition economy COVID-19大流行对消费者储蓄和零售销售的影响:来自后共产主义转型经济的证据
Economic Annals Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/eka2233039h
Ardian Harri, D. Imami, E. Zhllima
{"title":"The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer savings and retail sales: Evidence from a postcommunist transition economy","authors":"Ardian Harri, D. Imami, E. Zhllima","doi":"10.2298/eka2233039h","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2233039h","url":null,"abstract":"When coupled with strong external shocks such as COVID-19, the high levels of uncertainty that characterise fragile economies can have a strong impact on household consumption and saving behaviour. This paper analyses household consumption and saving behaviour in conjunction with COVID-19 in the context of a post-communist economy. Models and intervention analysis are used to identify the effect of catastrophic events such as the COVID-19 pandemic on two key macroeconomic measures for the Albanian economy. The findings show that the pandemic period caused a significant contraction of consumer spending and a significant increase in savings. Higher uncertainty appears to have been a key driver of such household behaviour. The effect on savings will endure in the long run, while retail trade is expected to recover. These findings call for a more astute use of fiscal and monetary policies to address the harmful emerging short-run effect of reduced household spending.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does foreign direct investment spur economic growth? New empirical evidence from sub-Saharan African countries 外国直接投资刺激经济增长吗?来自撒哈拉以南非洲国家的新经验证据
Economic Annals Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/eka2233061o
N. Odhiambo
{"title":"Does foreign direct investment spur economic growth? New empirical evidence from sub-Saharan African countries","authors":"N. Odhiambo","doi":"10.2298/eka2233061o","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2233061o","url":null,"abstract":"In this study we re-examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in 27 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period 1990-2019. Unlike some previous studies, we clustered SSA countries into two groups, namely low-income and middle-income countries. We also employed three panel data techniques in a stepwise fashion, namely the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and heterogeneous Granger non-causality approaches. Our results show that while the positive impact of FDI on economic growth is supported by both DOLS and FMOLS techniques in low-income countries, in middle-income countries only the DOLS technique supports this finding. This shows that the impact of FDI may be sensitive to the level of income of the recipient country. Overall, the results show that FDI inflows play a larger role in stimulating economic growth in low-income SSA countries than in middle-income SSA countries. These findings are also corroborated by heterogeneous Granger non-causality results. However, these findings are not surprising, given that many low-income countries tend to be more dependent on inward FDI inflows to stimulate their economic growth than middle- income countries. Policy recommendations are discussed.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Sustainable lean implementation: A study of Serbian companies 可持续精益实施:塞尔维亚公司的研究
Economic Annals Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/eka2234081t
M. Todorović, Milan Čupić, D. Jovanović
{"title":"Sustainable lean implementation: A study of Serbian companies","authors":"M. Todorović, Milan Čupić, D. Jovanović","doi":"10.2298/eka2234081t","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2234081t","url":null,"abstract":"We aim to identify and analyse the key success factors of sustainable lean implementation and investigate the changes in management accounting and performance measurement systems after lean implementation. We analyse four large, publicly traded Serbian companies that have implemented lean. To introduce diversity into our sample we choose companies from different industries and with different competitive and organizational characteristics. We use a multiple case study method to analyse the motives behind, barriers to, and implications of lean implementation and to examine the management accounting and performance measurement systems of companies implementing lean. Our results suggest that the key factors of sustainable lean implementation are continuous communication of the objectives and importance of the lean project, continuous improvement of soft skills, development of teamwork and employee motivation, dedicated management, a supportive work environment, and continuous monitoring of the implemented changes and results. Our results also point to the importance of changes and improvements in the management accounting and performance measurement systems during and after lean implementation.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How regional integration agreements can foster inclusive growth: lessons from exporting SMEs in the Western Balkans 区域一体化协议如何促进包容性增长:西巴尔干地区出口中小企业的经验教训
Economic Annals Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/eka2235067a
Sonja Avlijaš
{"title":"How regional integration agreements can foster inclusive growth: lessons from exporting SMEs in the Western Balkans","authors":"Sonja Avlijaš","doi":"10.2298/eka2235067a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2235067a","url":null,"abstract":"Empirical evidence on regional integration indicates that CEFTA?s Common Regional Market (CRM) could have spatially unequalising effects across the Western Balkans. Such an outcome would be in conflict with CEFTA?s goal of inclusive regional economic integration. This article offers a roadmap to avoid that pitfall. Literature on the changing global economy in the digital era and ICT-led growth and literature on the political economy of trust and cooperation between smaller economic agents are brought into a conversation with bottom-up empirical insights from small and medium enterprises (SME) from the region. Empirical data are collected from in-depth interviews with 58 export-oriented SMEs in Bosnia & Herzegovina and Serbia. I find that smaller firms are immensely interdependent with the environments within which they operate and that their competitiveness also stems from their ability to successfully leverage on these communal resources and local public goods. Finding ways to preserve and enhance this collective infrastructure is often more of a priority for them than market expansion and technological progress. The paper concludes by arguing that designing (supranational) institutions which can facilitate local and translocal cooperation among competitive exporting SMEs would mobilise greater democratic support for the CRM project.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The effects of FDI net inflow on the current account of southeast Europe countries - a panel causality analysis 外商直接投资净流入对东南欧国家经常账户的影响——一种面板因果分析
Economic Annals Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/eka2235095k
Radovan Kovacevic
{"title":"The effects of FDI net inflow on the current account of southeast Europe countries - a panel causality analysis","authors":"Radovan Kovacevic","doi":"10.2298/eka2235095k","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/eka2235095k","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between the current account (CA) and the foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflow in the Southeast Europe (SEE) countries. The panel data framework of five SEE countries for the period 2000- 2020 are used. Our research has three main findings. First, using the vector autoregressive VAR(2) model, a long-run relationship between the CA and the net FDI inflow is identified (a 1% increase in the net FDI inflow leads to a 1.011% increase in the CA deficit). This suggests that FDI stock will put upward pressure on the CA of the SEE countries in the long run. Second, applying the panel VAR model Granger causality test, we found that there is a two-way directional Granger causality. Third, our results from the vector error correction (VEC) model suggest that about 26% of the dynamics of the CA deficit adjusts to the long-run equilibrium path with the net FDI inflow each year.","PeriodicalId":35023,"journal":{"name":"Economic Annals","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68477331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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