{"title":"Reexamining the Evidence on Gun Ownership and Homicide Using Proxy Measures of Ownership","authors":"Karim Chalak, Daniel Kim, Megan Miller, J. Pepper","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3694050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3694050","url":null,"abstract":"Limited by the lack of data on gun ownership in the United States, ecological research linking firearms ownership rates to homicide often relies on proxy measures of ownership. Although the variable of interest is the gun ownership rate, not the proxy, the existing research does not formally account for the fact that the proxy is an error-ridden measure of the ownership rate. In this paper, we reexamine the ecological association between state-level gun ownership rates and homicide explicitly accounting for the measurement error in the proxy measure of ownership. To do this, we apply the results in Chalak and Kim (2020) to provide informative bounds on the mean association between rates of homicide and firearms ownership. In this setting, the estimated lower bound on the magnitude of the association corresponds to the conventional linear regression model estimate whereas the upper bound depends on prior information about the measurement error process. Our preferred model yields an upper bound on the gun homicide elasticity that is nearly three times larger than the fixed effects regression estimates that do not account for measurement error. Moreover, we consider two point-identified models that rely on earlier validation studies and on instrumental variables respectively, and find that the gun homicide elasticity equals this upper bound. Thus, our results suggest that the association between gun homicide and ownership rates is substantially larger than found in the earlier literature.","PeriodicalId":346205,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Multiple Equation Models (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126233344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What Everyone Should Know: About Univariate Normality and Bivariate Normality, and How They are Co-Related with Correlation and Independence","authors":"T. Crack","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3292639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3292639","url":null,"abstract":"I have collected together 10 results concerning marginal distributions, joint distributions, univariate normality, bivariate normality, correlation and independence. Some of these results are well known, but some are relatively unknown. My experience has been that no single source presents more than a few of these results simultaneously, and whenever I see one or two of these results, I am always left wanting more. <br><br>For example, must uncorrelated normally distributed random variables be independent? (No, I give some counterexamples.) Is independence *necessary* for the sum of two normally distributed random variables to be normally distributed? (No, but it is *sufficient*.) Is the weaker assumption of bivariate normality *necessary* for the sum of two normally distributed random variables to be normally distributed? (No, but it is *sufficient*.) If two normally distributed random variables are uncorrelated, are they automatically jointly bivariate normally distributed? (No, I give some counterexamples.) Etcetera.","PeriodicalId":346205,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Multiple Equation Models (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121905774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kjartan Kloster Osmundsen, T. S. Kleppe, R. Liesenfeld, Atle Oglend
{"title":"Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Stochastic Trends in Commodity Prices","authors":"Kjartan Kloster Osmundsen, T. S. Kleppe, R. Liesenfeld, Atle Oglend","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3518402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3518402","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a State-Space Model (SSM) for commodity prices that combines the competitive storage model with a stochastic trend. This approach fits into the economic rationality of storage decisions and adds to previous deterministic trend specifications of the storage model. For a Bayesian posterior analysis of the SSM, which is nonlinear in the latent states, we used a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm based on the particle marginal Metropolis–Hastings approach. An empirical application to four commodity markets showed that the stochastic trend SSM is favored over deterministic trend specifications. The stochastic trend SSM identifies structural parameters that differ from those for deterministic trend specifications. In particular, the estimated price elasticities of demand are typically larger under the stochastic trend SSM.","PeriodicalId":346205,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Multiple Equation Models (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133115663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Progress Report on Marxian Economic Theory: On the Controversies in Exploitation Theory Since Okishio (1963)","authors":"N. Yoshihara","doi":"10.1111/joes.12253","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12253","url":null,"abstract":"This report explores the development of exploitation theory in mathematical Marxian economics by reviewing the main controversies surrounding the proper definition of exploitation since the contribution of Okishio. The report first examines the debates on the Fundamental Marxian Theorem and Class‐Exploitation Correspondence Principle, developed mainly in the 1970s and 1980s, followed by the property relation theory of exploitation by Roemer. Then, the more recent exploitation theory proposed by Vrousalis and Wright is introduced. Finally, the report introduces and comments on recent axiomatic studies of exploitation by focusing on the work of Veneziani and Yoshihara.","PeriodicalId":346205,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Multiple Equation Models (Topic)","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114854098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"South–South and North–South Economic Exchanges: Does it Matter Who is Exchanging What and with Whom?","authors":"Omar S. Dahi, Firat Demir","doi":"10.1111/joes.12225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12225","url":null,"abstract":"This paper surveys the literature on costs and benefits of South–South versus North–South economic exchanges. Unlike the case for North–South exchanges, academic work on South–South economic relations has been historically limited given their marginal importance in the global economy. After the 1990s, the literature has changed in two main ways. First, South–South trade and finance since then has increased dramatically, leading to a bourgeoning literature on the topic. Second, the rise of the Emerging South has opened up new lines of inquiry to include not just the traditional topics of trade and preferential trading agreements, but also cover technology transfer, capital flows, labor migration, institutions, and environment. We discuss how this literature has evolved to take into account the greater complexity of South–South relations with a focus on China in Africa as well as the blurring of the lines between heterodox and mainstream analysis of South–South relations. We end the review by showing how the empirical and theoretical literature is exploring the increasing divergence within the global South between what we refer to as the Emerging South and the Rest of South.","PeriodicalId":346205,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Multiple Equation Models (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129181779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Agent‐Based Approach to Post Keynesian Macro‐Modeling","authors":"C. Di Guilmi","doi":"10.1111/joes.12244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12244","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents a survey of Post Keynesian (PK) agent‐based (AB) models and AB models with PK features. It is argued that AB modeling is fully consistent with the PK approach and that the cross‐fertilization can benefit both areas of research. The survey focuses on how the various models have faced the issues implied by adopting a bottom–up approach in a traditionally aggregative structure and highlights the additional insights coming from this modeling strategy. Particular attention is devoted to stock‐flow consistent AB models for their potential in defining a new benchmark for this type of research.","PeriodicalId":346205,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Multiple Equation Models (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123753510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Kernel-Based Inference in Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegrating Regression","authors":"Degui Li, P. Phillips, Jiti Gao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3004232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3004232","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper studies nonlinear cointegrating models with time-varying coefficients and multiple nonstationary regressors using classic kernel smoothing methods to estimate the coefficient functions. Extending earlier work on nonstationary kernel regression to take account of practical features of the data, we allow the regressors to be cointegrated and to embody a mixture of stochastic and deterministic trends, complications which result in asymptotic degeneracy of the kernel-weighted signal matrix. To address these complications new local and global rotation techniques are introduced to transform the covariate space to accommodate multiple scenarios of induced degeneracy. Under regularity conditions we derive asymptotic results that differ substantially from existing kernel regression asymptotics, leading to new limit theory under multiple convergence rates. For the practically important case of endogenous nonstationary regressors we propose a fully-modified kernel estimator whose limit distribution theory corresponds to the prototypical pure cointegration case (i.e., with exogenous covariates), thereby facilitating inference using a generalized Wald-type test statistic. These results substantially generalize econometric estimation and testing techniques in the cointegration literature to accommodate time variation and complications of co-moving regressors. Finally, Monte-Carlo simulation studies as well as an empirical illustration to aggregate US data on consumption, income, and interest rates are provided to illustrate the methodology and evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed methods in finite samples.","PeriodicalId":346205,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Multiple Equation Models (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130967457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Multiple Regression and Marketing-Mix Models","authors":"R. Venkatesan, Shea Gibbs","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2974720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2974720","url":null,"abstract":"In this technical note, the concept of regression using a single independent variable is first introduced and then some of the practical challenges associated with it, including multiple independent variables in a regression, are discussed. Particular attention is paid to bias in the regression coefficients in the presence of omitted variables. The concept of the economic significance of a model is introduced and is contrasted with statistical significance. At Darden, this note is used in the course elective \"Big Data in Marketing.\" \u0000Excerpt \u0000UVA-M-0855 \u0000Rev. Jun. 20, 2014 \u0000Multiple Regression In Marketing-Mix Models \u0000The movie Moneyball has a lot to teach us about optimizing a company's marketing mix. In the movie, the management of the Oakland Athletics discovers that the baseball team can get ahead by changing its perspective and looking at data differently than its competitors. \u0000The A's know most major-league teams use batting average (hits over real opportunities) as the prevailing metric for determining the worth of a hitter. Traditional baseball wisdom says, “You hit more, you win more.” So the players who have more hits per at bat are generally the most sought after and are paid the most money. But by examining the outcome of decades of baseball games, the A's manager finds a variable he believes to be more predictive of success. It is not only hits that help a baseball team win; walks count too. Getting on base and not making outs is more closely correlated with winning games than hits alone. \u0000The team's management takes the analysis of the data and uses it to buy undervalued players—players who don't necessarily have the highest batting averages but who do have high on-base percentages. For a small-market team such as the A's, which has less money to spend on players than other franchises, this strategy changes the game. \u0000. . .","PeriodicalId":346205,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Multiple Equation Models (Topic)","volume":"27 9‐10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120860829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling Supply Response and Investment in Agriculture in Developing Countries - A View from the Cloister","authors":"L. Pandey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2890848","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2890848","url":null,"abstract":"Modeling aggregate supply response of agriculture in developing economies may be effectively pursued both at micro and meso-levels in a profit maximizing framework, choice of technique and household decision theoretical system of neo-classical tradition. The system of equations consisting of aggregate output supply, input demand, and private investment functions can be estimated taking into account of imperfections in land, labor, capital and public infrastructure and market access across ago-ecosystems and production systems.","PeriodicalId":346205,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Multiple Equation Models (Topic)","volume":"133 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123493644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Inference in Partially Identified Heteroskedastic Simultaneous Equations Models","authors":"H. Luetkepohl, George Milunovich, Minxian Yang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2900111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2900111","url":null,"abstract":"Identification through heteroskedasticity in heteroskedastic simultaneous equations models (HSEMs) is considered. The possibility that heteroskedasticity identifies the structural parameters only partially is explicitly allowed for. The asymptoticproperties of the identified parameters are derived. Moreover, tests for identification through heteroskedasticity are developed and their asymptotic distributions are derived. Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the small sample properties of the asymptotically valid methods. Finally, the approach is applied to investigate the relation between the extent of economic openness and inflation.","PeriodicalId":346205,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Multiple Equation Models (Topic)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134159140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}