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DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic)最新文献

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Benefiting from Additive Manufacturing for Mass Customization across the Product Life Cycle 受益于整个产品生命周期内大规模定制的增材制造
DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-07-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3719793
Rachel Lacroix, Ralf W. Seifert, Anna Timonina-Farkas
{"title":"Benefiting from Additive Manufacturing for Mass Customization across the Product Life Cycle","authors":"Rachel Lacroix, Ralf W. Seifert, Anna Timonina-Farkas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3719793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3719793","url":null,"abstract":"Additive manufacturing (AM) was initially designed for prototyping and product personalization, where high production quantities were not required. Now, it is also implemented for final part production to achieve cost-effective mass customization (MC). Thanks to its tool-less production and extreme flexibility, AM has the potential to address individual customer preferences with custom final parts. Nevertheless, despite its increased competitiveness, AM is not yet likely to replace traditional MC systems, but it can complement them, improving manufacturing efficiency. To broaden our understanding of how AM can complement traditional manufacturing systems, we develop an exploratory quantitative model. First, we leverage customer-centricity in a novel time-varying locational choice model of heterogeneous customers, coupling the Bass and the Hotelling-Lancaster models. Then, we investigate customer-centric marketing and operations decisions, exploring technology-switching scenarios that interchange AM with MC across the product life cycle (PLC). We formulate and solve an optimization problem by jointly deciding on technology-switching times, pricing, and product variety strategies to maximize a manufacturer’s profit and meet individual customers’ diverse and evolving needs. We use a validated Sample Average Approximation approach for the numerical solution of our non-convex optimization problem. Testing different pricing strategies, we show that decreasing and flexible trajectories are optimal. We derive analytical properties for the optimal pricing policy and demonstrate that a manufacturer can benefit from interchanging AM and MC across the PLC, in particular by adopting an AM-MC-AM scenario.","PeriodicalId":342152,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116845400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
The Effect of Formal Control Justification on Dysfunctional Behavior 形式控制正当化对功能失调行为的影响
DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-05-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3616529
Yun-Jung Cha, Bernard Wong-On-Wing
{"title":"The Effect of Formal Control Justification on Dysfunctional Behavior","authors":"Yun-Jung Cha, Bernard Wong-On-Wing","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3616529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3616529","url":null,"abstract":"Prior studies in management control find that formal controls can engender employees’ negative responses toward the organization because they not only restrict employees’ autonomy, but they also signal distrust. The present study examines whether control justification (deterrence justification versus just deserts justification) can mitigate employees’ feelings of distrust and the adverse consequences of control. Using an experiment, we find that employees are more likely to feel distrusted when an organization imposes a formal control with a deterrence justification than with a just deserts justification. We further find that employees who feel more distrusted decrease the amount of misreporting more when they have high loss aversion than when they have low loss aversion. This difference is not significant among employees who feel less distrusted. Results of our study contribute to the literature on the effect of formal controls, and have implications for organizations as they consider ways to mitigate employees’ negative reactions to formal controls.","PeriodicalId":342152,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic)","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127498431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal Demand for Index Insurance Under Basis Ambiguity 基准模糊条件下指数保险的最优需求
DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-03-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3561406
Fujii Yoichiro, Y. Osaki
{"title":"Optimal Demand for Index Insurance Under Basis Ambiguity","authors":"Fujii Yoichiro, Y. Osaki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3561406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3561406","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines how basis ambiguity influences the demand for index insurance. Ambiguity is introduced into the statistical relationship between the loss and the index because they are more difficult to guess than the occurrence of the loss and the index individually. Basis ambiguity lowers the demand for index insurance and increases the threshold to hold the index insurance. This is a possible explanation for the very low demand and participation in index insurance. Further, we consider how changes in ambiguity and ambiguity aversion influence the demand.","PeriodicalId":342152,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic)","volume":"266 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133274819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reconciling Behavioral Finance and Rational Finance 调和行为金融学与理性金融学
DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-03-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3552403
Abootaleb Shirvani, F. Fabozzi, Borjana Racheva-Iotova
{"title":"Reconciling Behavioral Finance and Rational Finance","authors":"Abootaleb Shirvani, F. Fabozzi, Borjana Racheva-Iotova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3552403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3552403","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we explain main concepts of Prospect Theory and Cumulative Prospect Theory within the rational dynamic asset pricing framework. We derive option pricing formulas when asset returns are altered by a generalized Prospect Theory value function or a modified Prelec’s weighting probability function. We introduce new parametric classes for Prospect Theory value functions and probability weighting functions consistent with rational dynamic pricing theory. After the behavioral finance notion of “greed and fear” is studied from the perspective of rational dynamic asset pricing theory, we derive the corresponding option pricing formulas when asset returns follow continuous diffusions or discrete binomial trees. We define mixed subordinated variance gamma process to model asset return and derive the corresponding option pricing formula. Finally, we apply the proposed probability weighting functions to study the greedy or fearful disposition of option traders when asset returns follow a mixed subordinated variance gamma process. The results indicate availability bias and diminishing sensitivity of option traders.","PeriodicalId":342152,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic)","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131025672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Need for Discontinuous Probability Weighting Functions: How Cumulative Prospect Theory is Torn Between the Allais Paradox and the St. Petersburg Paradox 对不连续概率加权函数的需要:累积前景理论如何在阿莱悖论和圣彼得堡悖论之间撕裂
DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-10-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3465830
Maik Dierkes, Vulnet Sejdiu
{"title":"The Need for Discontinuous Probability Weighting Functions: How Cumulative Prospect Theory is Torn Between the Allais Paradox and the St. Petersburg Paradox","authors":"Maik Dierkes, Vulnet Sejdiu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3465830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3465830","url":null,"abstract":"Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) must embrace probability weighting functions with a discontinuity at probability zero to pass the two most prominent litmus tests for descriptive decision theories under risk: the Allais paradox and the St. Petersburg paradox. We prove in a nonparametric framework that, with continuous preference functions, CPT cannot explain both paradoxes simultaneously. Thus, Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) originally proposed discontinuous probability weighting function has - when applied in a rank-dependent framework, of course - much more predictive power compared to all other popular, but continuous weighting functions, including e.g. Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) proposal. Neo-additive weighting functions constitute another parsimonious, yet promising class of discontinuous weighting functions. In other words, if we rashly restricted CPT to continuous preference functions we might erroneously jump to the conclusion that risk preferences are not stable over similar tasks or even reject CPT.","PeriodicalId":342152,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic)","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129985487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Identification and Estimation of Discrete Choice Models with Unobserved Choice Sets 具有未观察选择集的离散选择模型的辨识与估计
DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-07-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3869963
Victor H. Aguiar, N. Kashaev
{"title":"Identification and Estimation of Discrete Choice Models with Unobserved Choice Sets","authors":"Victor H. Aguiar, N. Kashaev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3869963","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3869963","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a framework for nonparametric identification and estimation of discrete choice models with unobserved choice sets. We recover the joint distribution of choice sets and preferences from a panel dataset on choices. We assume that either the latent choice sets are sparse or that the panel is sufficiently long. Sparsity requires the number of possible choice sets to be relatively small. It is satisfied, for instance, when the choice sets are nested, or when they form a partition.<br><br>Our estimation procedure is computationally fast and uses mixed-integer optimization to recover the sparse support of choice sets. Analyzing the ready-to-eat cereal industry using a household scanner dataset, we find that ignoring the unobservability of choice sets can lead to biased estimates of preferences due to significant latent heterogeneity in choice sets.","PeriodicalId":342152,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121168781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Loss Aversion and the Demand for Index Insurance 损失厌恶与指数保险需求
DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-06-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3406641
Immanuel Lampe, Daniel Würtenberger
{"title":"Loss Aversion and the Demand for Index Insurance","authors":"Immanuel Lampe, Daniel Würtenberger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3406641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3406641","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This work analyzes if reference dependence and loss aversion can explain the puzzling low adoption rates of rainfall index insurance. We present a model that predicts the impact of loss aversion on index insurance demand to vary with different levels of insurance understanding. Index insurance demand of farmers who are unaware of the loss-hedging benefit that insurance provides decreases with loss aversion. In contrast, insurance demand of farmers who are aware of the loss-hedging benefit increases with loss aversion. The model further predicts that farmers who are unaware of the loss-hedging benefit will not demand an even highly subsidized index insurance. Using data from a randomized controlled trial involving a sample of Indian farmers we provide empirical support for our core conjecture that insurance understanding mitigates the negative impact of loss aversion on index insurance adoption.","PeriodicalId":342152,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132164898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
Worst- and Best-Case Expected Utility and Ordinal Metautility 最坏情况和最佳情况下的预期效用和有序变效用
DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-04-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3369078
S. Grant, Patricia Rich, J. Stecher
{"title":"Worst- and Best-Case Expected Utility and Ordinal Metautility","authors":"S. Grant, Patricia Rich, J. Stecher","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3369078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3369078","url":null,"abstract":"We provide a theory of decision under ambiguity in which the worst-case and best-case expected utility representations are sufficient statistics for a decision maker’s preferences; we refer to the new utility functions as meta-utilities. Our approach, which generalizes many of the commonly used models, provides an ordinal value of these worst- and best-case expected utilities, mirroring the familiar ordinal utility functions over commodity baskets. Ambiguity attitude is simply the marginal rate of substitution in the meta-utility between worst-and best-case expected utilities.","PeriodicalId":342152,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic)","volume":"206 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128723075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Ambiguity Aversion in Competitive Insurance Markets with Asymmetric Information 信息不对称条件下竞争性保险市场的歧义规避
DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-03-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3351930
R. Peter, Andreas Richter, P. Thistle
{"title":"Ambiguity Aversion in Competitive Insurance Markets with Asymmetric Information","authors":"R. Peter, Andreas Richter, P. Thistle","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3351930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3351930","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the effect of ambiguous loss probabilities on competitive insurance markets with asymmetric information. We characterize equilibria under actuarially fair pricing with preferences that are second-order ambiguity averse (have smooth indifference curves). We also show existence of uniqueness of the second-best contracts and provide a characterization. Non-increasing absolute ambiguity aversion is sufficient for adverse selection in the smooth model. We then determine the effect of ambiguity on equilibrium under ambiguity aversion. There is a coverage effect because ambiguity relaxes the self-selection constraint and raises the available coverage for the low risks, and an ambiguity effect because ambiguity makes ambiguity averse agents worse off. Both effects are conflicting when it comes to their impact on the critical pro-portion of high risks required for a Rothschild-Stiglitz equilibrium to exist and social welfare. We derive conditions that allow to resolve the indeterminate social welfare effect.","PeriodicalId":342152,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127652710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sorting and filtering as effective rational choice procedures 排序和筛选作为有效的理性选择程序
DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-09-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3252653
Philipp Zahn, Paulo Oliva
{"title":"Sorting and filtering as effective rational choice procedures","authors":"Philipp Zahn, Paulo Oliva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3252653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3252653","url":null,"abstract":"Many online shops offer functionality that help their customers navigate the available alternatives. For instance, options to filter and to sort goods are wide-spread. In this paper we show that sorting and filtering can be used by rational consumers to find their most preferred choice -- quickly. We characterize the preferences which can be expressed through filtering and sorting and show that these preferences exhibit a simple and intuitive logical structure.","PeriodicalId":342152,"journal":{"name":"DecisionSciRN: Rational Decision-Making (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128605395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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