{"title":"Forecasting Energy Commodities Prices with Bayesian Model Combination Schemes","authors":"Krzysztof Drachal","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2018.8469881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469881","url":null,"abstract":"The biggest advantage of Bayesian approach is that it allows to use data-rich models in a reasonable way. The conventional approach is not suitable when the number of variables exceeds the number of observations. Bayesian formulas remain reasonable in such a case. Researchers usually deal with numerous potentially important variables in forecasting. Newly methods like Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA), Dynamic Model Selection (DMS) and Median Probability Model nicely deal with model uncertainty. The study discusses energy commodity prices development. FRED-MD large macroeconomic database is applied. Forecasting commodities prices is a hard task. Therefore, it seems interesting to check the novel methodology. It allows both explanatory variables and regression coefficients to vary in time. Thus in different periods, different factors can be treated as the important ones.","PeriodicalId":334674,"journal":{"name":"2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129056362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Asymmetric Impact of Economic Growth on CO2Emissions: Evidence from the EU Countries","authors":"M. Piłatowska, Andrzej Geise, A. Włodarczyk","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2018.8469773","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469773","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines asymmetric responses of CO2emissions to changes in GDP through the use of the VAR model considered for two specifications: linear and asymmetric in the EU countries divided into three groups with regard to the Knowledge Economy Index. Granger causality tests, the impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition suggest that the GDP shocks have asymmetric effects on CO2emissions in Belgium and Spain. Some weaker evidence are also found for France, Portugal and Germany. The evidence that the response of CO2emissions to GDP shocks is procyclical or even asymmetric for some EU countries indicates that policy makers should also respond to this by altering the stringency of a policy.","PeriodicalId":334674,"journal":{"name":"2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129162561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Līga Sadoviča, Valentīns Lavrinovičs, A. Sauhats, Oatis Junghans, Karin Maria Lehtmets
{"title":"Estimating Energy Reduction Amount in the Event of Demand Response Activation: Baseline Model Comparison for the Baltic States","authors":"Līga Sadoviča, Valentīns Lavrinovičs, A. Sauhats, Oatis Junghans, Karin Maria Lehtmets","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2018.8469796","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469796","url":null,"abstract":"Demand response integration in energy markets can provide significant financial saving for grid operators and market participants and promote optimal resource allocation. An important step towards the integration is the introduction of methodology estimating energy transferred via demand response activation event. In essence, a consumption baseline model is a mathematical forecast of the energy consumption pattern that would have occurred in the absence of demand response event. These calculations are then used as the basis for the financial settlement among different market parties - consumers, aggregators, system operators and balance responsible parties. Currently there is no universal consensus on the best consumption baseline model and approaches used, differ wildly even among countries with relatively high demand response commercial activity. The objective of this paper is to compare different consumption baseline methodologies in terms of accuracy and robustness while taking into account the unique challenges within the Baltic region. For the comparative analysis we use hourly consumption patterns of one year for 40 different types of consumers. The analysis suggest that from the consumption baseline models reviewed, UK model performs the best in terms of accuracy and robustness.","PeriodicalId":334674,"journal":{"name":"2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133638734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jouni Haapaniemi, J. Haakana, N. Belonogova, J. Lassila, J. Partanen
{"title":"Changing to Power-Based Grid Pricing - An Incentive for Grid Defections in Nordic Conditions?","authors":"Jouni Haapaniemi, J. Haakana, N. Belonogova, J. Lassila, J. Partanen","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2018.8469929","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469929","url":null,"abstract":"Distribution system operators' (DSO) operating environment is changing significantly since customers' distributed production, electric vehicles, heat pump systems and battery energy storage systems (BESS) are becoming more common. In this paper, the proportion of rural area customers in Nordic conditions who could go off-grid and operate independently by investing in solar photovoltaics (PV) and BESS is studied. Further, the effects on these customers' electricity bill is studied, and thereby to grid defection profitability, if DSO changes tariff system towards power-based tariff (PBT) is examined. Analyses are conducted with real customers' hourly load data from four different case areas, covering a total of 10808 customers. The study shows that the number of possible customers in the studied rural case areas is 8-19 %. If DSO changes the tariff structure from energy-based tariffs to power-based tariffs, it has significant effects on grid defection profitability whether the tariff structure includes minimum charged power or not.","PeriodicalId":334674,"journal":{"name":"2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130735788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Narayanan, Jouni Haapaniemi, T. Kaipia, J. Partanen
{"title":"Economic Impacts of Power-Based Tariffs on Peer-to-Peer Electricity Exchange in Community Microgrids","authors":"A. Narayanan, Jouni Haapaniemi, T. Kaipia, J. Partanen","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2018.8469778","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469778","url":null,"abstract":"Due to the proliferation of renewables-based distributed energy resources, many electricity customers today consume and produce electricity. Since prosumers can benefit from supplying surplus electricity to consumers with electricity deficits, (p2p) peer-to-peer electricity exchange has been proposed for low-voltage (LV) microgrids forming “community microgrids.” The distribution system operator (DSO), who is an important stakeholder in LV networks, has an income that is largely energy dependent. However, energy-based tariffs (EBT) do not reflect the true cost of a DSO's network investment that is highly dependent on the peak power in the network. A power-based distribution tariff (PBT) scheme where customers pay for their peak load (€/kW) instead of consumed energy (€/kWh) has been proposed. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of revising the tariff structure from EBT to PBT on customers participating in p2p community microgrids with photovoltaic (PV) installations. We consider four different Finnish customer types and compare the benefits obtained by 36 customers of each type after their EBT was replaced by PBT. We apply PBT also to the power supplied by prosumers to their peers. Nearly all the customers (expectedly) benefited from electricity exchange especially for the typical PV system size of 5 kWp. When the PV system Sizes were increased, the benefits decreased and became negative at PV system size ≥ 17.5 kWp,. In particular, the savings in EBT and PBT cases were similar-the tariff change from EBT to PBT did not significantly affect the customers' benefits from electricity exchange.","PeriodicalId":334674,"journal":{"name":"2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117020801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impact Assessment of Power-to-X Options in the German Residential Sector","authors":"Michael Haendel, Rainer Eisiand","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2018.8469968","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469968","url":null,"abstract":"Driven by climate protection objectives, the energy system is becoming increasingly electrified and Power-to-X (PtX) options are becoming more widespread. Promising PtX options can be found in particular with electric vehicles and heat pumps in the residential sector. In order to consider their potential and possible influences on the energy system in planning and decision-making processes, it is important to know their local impact. Firstly, a methodology is proposed that forecasts the annual local demand at a NUTS-3 level using a bottom-up model. Secondly, the local demands of selected regions are mapped in an agent-based simulation model to derive annual load shift potentials by comparing uncontrolled and price-controlled operating modes. The methodology is demonstrated in a case study for Germany, which points out that local analyses can deviate significantly from cross-regional studies with regard to the medium-term effects on demand.","PeriodicalId":334674,"journal":{"name":"2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131261014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Viability Analysis of a Decentralized Energy Market Based on Blockchain","authors":"M. Foti, Dimitrios Greasidis, M. Vavalis","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2018.8469906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469906","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the design, the development and the experimental evaluation, of a blockchain based smart contract specifying the operating rules of a real time, uniform-price double auction energy market. Producers and consumers interact with this contract sending their offers and bids accordingly and the contract clears the market based on a double auction model. We propose four different approaches for implementing, through the Ethereum platform, both the P2P network as well as the smart contract. We systematically compare the above approaches on the basis of their decentralization nature, operating costs, computational costs, effectiveness, security, privacy and beyond. This comparison is achieved through large scale, real time simulations based on the GridLAB-D platform.","PeriodicalId":334674,"journal":{"name":"2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132829454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modeling Large Electric Vehicle Fleets in Power System Simulations","authors":"L. Skiba, A. Moser","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2018.8469820","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469820","url":null,"abstract":"The need to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions leads to an increase in suitable efforts in all sectors. Therefore, in the transportation sector, a growing number of electric vehicles is expected. A rising number of electric vehicles also increases the electric load, which in turn increases demand on electricity markets. Depending on the time of charging processes, higher peak loads and a rising demand for flexibility could be the consequence. At the same time, electric vehicles and the possibility to shift their charging processes could counter this rising demand for flexibility or even enable the vehicules to provide flexibility for the grid. In order to study problems like this, market simulations are frequently used. In that context or for other types of power system simulations, adequate modeling of electric vehicles becomes indispensable. Therefore, firstly, this paper discusses implications of modeling large numbers of individual electric vehicles in power system simulations. Subsequently, we propose a way to model aggregated vehicle classes to circumvent possible problems adequately considering relevant restrictions. We use exemplary investigations in a market simulation to validate our model. The results indicate that the proposed model is suitable to represent large fleets of electric vehicles in power system simulations.","PeriodicalId":334674,"journal":{"name":"2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132261350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I. Marjanović, D. V. Stein, N. van Bracht, A. Moser
{"title":"Impact of an Enlargement of the Flow Based Region in Continental Europe","authors":"I. Marjanović, D. V. Stein, N. van Bracht, A. Moser","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2018.8470008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8470008","url":null,"abstract":"In the CWE region, flow based market coupling went live in May, 2015. However, a foreseen broader flow based region triggers additional questions from various perspectives. On the one hand, market participants wonder how flow based mechanisms affect the market clearing. On the other hand, TSOs deal with the issues of redispatch and the future development of the respective volumes. Policy makers, as another stakeholder, ask about the potential increase of the overall market efficiency. To contribute to these questions, we propose a tool chain in this paper, which consists of three main steps: Capacity Calculation Methodology, hybrid flow based market coupling and a redispatch simulation. In exemplary investigations, we apply the developed tool chain on two use cases with a different scope of the flow based region. The main results indicate, more overall converging prices in Europe and a significant increase of trade restricting network elements, also located within bidding zones, in case of a broader flow based region. Additionally, the overall fundamental system efficiency increases by 150 million Euros per year in our exemplary investigation.","PeriodicalId":334674,"journal":{"name":"2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","volume":"100 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129121081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Designing An Electrical Network Configuration to Improve the Efficiency of Electricity Market","authors":"T. Lomane, A. Mahņitko, K. Berzina, I. Zicmane","doi":"10.1109/EEM.2018.8469907","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469907","url":null,"abstract":"To improve the efficiency of the electricity market the problem of choosing the optimal configuration of an electrical network is considered in this paper. To solve this problem the new approach of computational scheme on the base of the using the statistical tests method and the linear equations systems solution is proposed. The object function of the unit costs for the transmission lines construction on the transmitted power, based on a quadratic dependence is represented. This provides more trustworthy optimization results in comparison with the object function approximation of these costs by linear functions.","PeriodicalId":334674,"journal":{"name":"2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)","volume":"186 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116380729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}