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African Journal of Applied Statistics最新文献

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Using Markov assumption with covariates to assess the Plasmodium falciparum malaria serological markers evolution 用带协变量的马尔可夫假设评价恶性疟原虫疟疾血清学标志物的进化
African Journal of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2020.913.247
Oumy Niass, A. Diongue, Philippe Saint-Pierre, A. Touré
{"title":"Using Markov assumption with covariates to assess the Plasmodium falciparum malaria serological markers evolution","authors":"Oumy Niass, A. Diongue, Philippe Saint-Pierre, A. Touré","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2020.913.247","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2020.913.247","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we develop Three Markov models which are continuous time-homogeneous Model, time piecewise constant intensities Markov model and semi-Markov model with \u0000Weibull distribution as the waiting time distribution to evaluate malaria serology evolution. We consider two-state model describing antibody reactivity defined by immunologists. \u0000We discuss in detail the application of these models to identify relationships between malaria control program and serological measurements of malaria transmission","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133739732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analyzing the impact of external debt on industrialization : the African franc zone case 外债对工业化的影响分析:非洲法郎区案例
African Journal of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2020.883.246
D. Fogang, Jean Tchitchoua
{"title":"Analyzing the impact of external debt on industrialization : the African franc zone case","authors":"D. Fogang, Jean Tchitchoua","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2020.883.246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2020.883.246","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses data from 10 countries of the African franc zone from 1996 to 2017, to gauge the effect of external debt on industrialization in the presence of non-linearity. Our analyzes are done based on two aspects. Firstly, using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR), our results show that there is a non-linear relationship between external debt and industrialization in the African franc zone, which depends on the level of the external debt stock, the threshold is $58.91 %$ of GDP. While before this threshold, external debt has no direct effect on industrialization, after this threshold it is harmful to it. Secondly, an analysis in two periods (1996-2006 and 2007-2017) by the GLS and SUR methods shows that before 2006, the external debt was an asset for industrialization but after, it gave way to domestic credit. Thus, the external debt has become obsolete after reaching the completion point of the HIPC initiative, and would be a danger for the industrialization of the franc zone in the event of excess.","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115613350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Time Series Modelling of Monthly average Temperature in Gaborone-Botswana 哈博罗内-博茨瓦纳月平均气温的时间序列模拟
African Journal of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.689.237
K. Sediakgotla, W. Molefe, D. K. Shangodoyin
{"title":"Time Series Modelling of Monthly average Temperature in Gaborone-Botswana","authors":"K. Sediakgotla, W. Molefe, D. K. Shangodoyin","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.689.237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.689.237","url":null,"abstract":"The seasonal series on the average maximum temperatures in Gaborone (Botswana) is used to identify the best time series model that can be used for forecasting. The series was found to be highly seasonal. Seasonally adjusting the series prior to applying the Box and Jenkins procedure did not average out the seasonal effects, despite giving a fairly good ARIMA(1,1,1). We also fitted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q) with seasonality effects at lags s=12,24,36. Correlograms, Dickey Fuller tests and other model comparison methods led to an ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)[12]. The seasonal multiplicative SARIMA was found to be parsimonious as compared to an additive seasonal SARIMA.","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121126657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Plagiarism and Examination Malpractice: Persistent Examples of Academic Dishonesty 抄袭和考试舞弊:学术不诚实的持续例子
African Journal of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.723.239
O. Adebola, O. Ewemooje, F. B. Adebola
{"title":"Plagiarism and Examination Malpractice: Persistent Examples of Academic Dishonesty","authors":"O. Adebola, O. Ewemooje, F. B. Adebola","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.723.239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.723.239","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130360349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Corrective Measures in Linear Regression Model Plagued with Heteroscedasticity: A Monte Carlo 异方差线性回归模型的修正措施:蒙特卡罗方法
African Journal of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.741.240
Oluwayemisi O Alaba, C. Godwin, A. Lawal
{"title":"Corrective Measures in Linear Regression Model Plagued with Heteroscedasticity: A Monte Carlo","authors":"Oluwayemisi O Alaba, C. Godwin, A. Lawal","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.741.240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.741.240","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117112963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intervention time series modeling with parametric and nonparametric approach: comparative study on Corporation tax in Togo 参数与非参数方法的干预时间序列建模:多哥公司税的比较研究
African Journal of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.711.238
Dodema Biteniwe, K. Gneyou
{"title":"Intervention time series modeling with parametric and nonparametric approach: comparative study on Corporation tax in Togo","authors":"Dodema Biteniwe, K. Gneyou","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.711.238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.711.238","url":null,"abstract":"Time series are often subject to structural changes caused by external events such as strikes, new fiscal measures, or policy changes. In the current paper, we conduct a comparative study of a parametric and nonparametric approach to intervention time series modeling to model the impact, on corporate tax, of the important tax reform in December 2012 in Togo (the establishment of a Togolese Revenue Office).The comparison of the two models has led us to conclude that the non-parametric approach is superior in terms of predictive quality as well as the measurement of the effect of the reform.","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132821560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the Determinants of Trust in Public Institutions in Botswana : A Multilevel Linear Model Approach 评估博茨瓦纳公共机构信任的决定因素:多层次线性模型方法
African Journal of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.663.236
G. D. Manyeagae, W. Molefe, B. Seabo
{"title":"Assessing the Determinants of Trust in Public Institutions in Botswana : A Multilevel Linear Model Approach","authors":"G. D. Manyeagae, W. Molefe, B. Seabo","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.663.236","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.663.236","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines factors that explain trust in public institutions in Botswana and factors that explain trust in public institutions. The Afrobarometer surveys from 2008 to 2014 show a decline in public institutional trust in Botswana even though the country is considered a hub for good governance in Africa. Using Afrobarometer survey data, the article employs multilevel analysis to assess factors that explain trust in public institutions. The findings indicate that education, satisfaction with democracy and perceptions of corruption are significant factors in explaining trust in public institutions. The article argues that while Botswana’s democratic credentials are undisputed, citizens are increasingly becoming too critical of public institutions.","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129791641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting Optimum Utilization of Antenatal Health Services Among Women of Reproductive Age in Nigeria 影响尼日利亚育龄妇女最佳利用产前保健服务的因素的定量分析
African Journal of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.16929/AJAS/2019.537.229
A. Adetokunbo, A. Adeniran
{"title":"Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting Optimum Utilization of Antenatal Health Services Among Women of Reproductive Age in Nigeria","authors":"A. Adetokunbo, A. Adeniran","doi":"10.16929/AJAS/2019.537.229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/AJAS/2019.537.229","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126689146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
On Adverse Consequences of Malaria Drugs taken during Pregnancy on Babies' Malformation in Nigeria 尼日利亚怀孕期间服用抗疟疾药物对婴儿畸形的不良影响
African Journal of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.617.234
R. O. Olanrewaju
{"title":"On Adverse Consequences of Malaria Drugs taken during Pregnancy on Babies' Malformation in Nigeria","authors":"R. O. Olanrewaju","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.617.234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.617.234","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133472878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Prediction Model for the Africa Cup of Nations 2019 via Nested Poisson Regression 基于嵌套泊松回归的2019年非洲国家杯预测模型
African Journal of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2019.599.233
Lorenz A. Gilch
{"title":"Prediction Model for the Africa Cup of Nations 2019 via Nested Poisson Regression","authors":"Lorenz A. Gilch","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2019.599.233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2019.599.233","url":null,"abstract":"This article is devoted to the forecast of the Africa Cup of Nations 2019 football tournament. It is based on a Poisson regression model that includes the Elo points of the participating teams as covariates and incorporates differences of team-specific skills. The proposed model allows predictions in terms of probabilities in order to quantify the chances for each team to reach a certain stage of the tournament. Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate the outcome of each single match of the tournament and hence to simulate the whole tournament itself. The model is fitted on all football games on neutral ground of the participating teams since 2010.","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127701519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
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