PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Russian Industry in H2 2017: Hovering between Pessimism and Optimism","authors":"S. Tsukhlo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3102941","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3102941","url":null,"abstract":"The second half of 2017 was a tough period for Russian enterprises; in particular, in the middle of the year industrial enterprises saw the demand for their products expand at slower pace. In November, however, a representative indicator set of Gaidar Institute’s business survey statistics exhibited positive changes in key indicators. Demand and output, including forecasts, and finished goods inventory were led by upward dynamics that continued into December.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"112 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128045645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Granular Origins of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Europe","authors":"C. Ebeke, Kodjovi M. Eklou","doi":"10.5089/9781484324806.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484324806.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations in Europe. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (the granular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper also assesses the strength of spillovers from large firms onto SMEs. Using firm-level data covering over 14 million firms and eight european countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain), we find that: (i) 40 percent of the variance in GDP in the sample can be explained by idiosyncratic shocks at large firms; (ii) positive granular shocks at large firms spill over to domestic SMEs’ output, especially if SMEs’ balance sheets are healthy and if SMEs belong to the services and manufacturing sectors.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"260 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117112140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Collective Action and Representation in Autocracies: Evidence from Russia's Great Reforms","authors":"Paul Castañeda Dower, E. Finkel, Scott Gehlbach, Steven Nafziger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2851111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2851111","url":null,"abstract":"We explore the relationship between capacity for collective action and representation in autocracies with data from Imperial Russia. Our primary empirical exercise relates peasant representation in new institutions of local self-government to the frequency of peasant unrest in the decade prior to reform. To correct for measurement error in the unrest data and other sources of endogeneity, we exploit idiosyncratic variation in two determinants of peasant unrest: the historical incidence of serfdom and religious polarization. We find that peasants were granted less representation in districts with more frequent unrest in preceding years — a relationship consistent with the Acemoglu-Robinson model of political transitions and inconsistent with numerous other theories of institutional change. At the same time, we observe patterns of redistribution in subsequent years that are inconsistent with the commitment mechanism central to the Acemoglu-Robinson model. Building on these results, we discuss possible directions for future theoretical work.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116538513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Household Sector: Income, Consumer and Labor Markets","authors":"E. Avraamova, A. Burdyak, E. Grishina, D. Loginov, V. Lyashok, T. Maleva, N. Mkrtchyan, A. Polyakova, Y. Florinskaya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2998549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2998549","url":null,"abstract":"Household real disposable income and real pensions decelerated by 6.1% and 2.5% in December 2016 in comparison with the same period of 2015 (Fig. 1). In contrast, real wage went up by 2.4% in December 2016 compared to the same period of the previous year.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131937257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding Sovereign Rating Movements in Euro Area Countries","authors":"J. Br̊uha, M. Karber, Beatrice Pierluigi, Ralph Setzer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2911004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2911004","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit model, to understand how the decisions of rating agencies can be explained by economic developments. The estimated model re-produces historical ratings by using a small number of economic and institutional variables, which seem to effectively summarize the large number of criteria used by Moody JEL Classification: C25, G24, H63, H68","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"325 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115762014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Resilience of ‘Bad Ideas’ in Eurozone Crisis Discourse, Even as Rival Ideas Inform Changing Practices","authors":"V. Schmidt","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2907701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2907701","url":null,"abstract":"In the Eurozone Crisis, ‘bad ideas’ were initially resilient not just in the discourse but also in practice, as neo-liberal ideas focused on austerity and structural reform were embedded in the legislative packages and intergovernmental pacts (Six Pack, Two Pack, and Fiscal Compact). Later, however, the bad ideas continued to be resilient in the discourse while the practices incrementally changed for the better as rival ideas gain influence. This paper explains why such discursive resilience through an empirical examination of EU political actors’ discourse first in their initial response to the crisis that reinforced the ‘stability’ rules and then in their shift first to a discourse of growth and then of flexibility, all the while insisting that they were sticking by the rules. The paper argues, in essence, that leaders chose to reinterpret the rules ‘by stealth,’ that is, by not admitting to their national constituencies—or even to one another—that their ideas weren’t working, and that the rules therefore needed to change. Theoretically, the paper explains this according to five possible reasons for the resilience of neo-liberal ideas, including the adaptability of the concepts, their lack of actual implementation, their strength in the discourse compared to alternatives, the role of interests in benefiting from those ideas, and their embedding in institutions.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121886498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy Implementation in ASEAN and the European Union: The Problem of Asymmetric Compliance","authors":"Giulio Napolitano","doi":"10.1017/cbo9781316340653.009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781316340653.009","url":null,"abstract":"The paper highlights the problem of asymmetric compliance in the context of international regulatory cooperation, with specific reference to the case of ASEAN. The asymmetry may be across countries, when some of the stipulating parties are compliant and others are not; and between different policies covered by the same ‘multi-purpose’ treaty. Administrative capacity may differ from one country to another and from one policy to another. Countries have different administrative traditions and performance. However, bureaucratic quality is not homogeneous, and varies in the different countries. Furthermore, strategies of compliance and non-compliance in a multi-party and multi-game setting are also more complex. Some countries might be tempted to free-ride on other countries loyal cooperation; or to adopt a strategy of selective cooperation according to the kind of policy. Moreover, private stakeholders influence in different ways implementation and compliance; but not with the same intensity in all policies. Their pressure is supposed to be stronger in market areas, where they can benefit from the removal of national barriers, than in non-market ones.In such a context, the existence of a truly supranational organization with an administrative infrastructure might limit agency losses: partly because it can directly perform some implementation tasks; and partly because it is better equipped to monitor effective compliance by member states and national administrations. Promoting administrative convergence and regulating national administrations can reduce ineffective implementation and non-compliance too. This is why that the role of the ASEAN Secretariat and other supranational bodies could be usefully extended in a pragmatic way, without any formal change of the ASEAN Charter. Specific agreements and directives can delegate implementation and supervisory tasks to the ASEAN Secretariat or other instrumental bodies, on a case by case basis. The strengthening of a supranational administrative system could take place without any general and explicit rejection of the ‘ASEAN way’ to common policy implementation. In principle, member states could continue to deny any conferral of general authority to the ASEAN Secretariat or other related bodies. In practice, however, they could recognize, through specific agreements, that giving limited executive and supervising powers to supranational administrations could be the best way to pursue a proper and coherent implementation of common rules and policies.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123963431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russian Real Sector of the Economy in May 2015: Factors and Trends","authors":"O. Izryadnova","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2640052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2640052","url":null,"abstract":"The decline in economic growth rates in 2015 is determined by contraction in both investment and consumer demand. Fixed investment in May 2015 decreased by 7.6 % and retail turnover by 9.2% compared to May 2014. The narrowing of domestic demand increased the downtrend in industrial production. On a year-over-year basis, the manufacturing output index in May 2015 stood at 91.7% and the mineral extraction index was 99.1%.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127935119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russian Financial Markets in May 2015","authors":"E. Gorbatikov, E. Khudko","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2640038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2640038","url":null,"abstract":"The dynamics of the MICEX Index saw no drastic movements last month1, avaraging 1650 index points, with a 1.2% fall at month’s end. The rest of the MICEX Sector Indices, except the MICEX Telecommunications Index, de monstrated negative dynamics too. The MICEX daily average turnover kept shrinking and amounted to Rb 30.4bn. The situation in the Russian domestic corporate bond market in June was relatively normalized. The key market indicators such as the market volume and the corporate bond market index saw moderately positive dynamics; investors’ activity remained high in the primary and secondary markets (particularly in the fi nancial segment). Growth in the weighted average yield rate of bond issuances was an adverse trend. The problem with the failure to meet obligations to bondholders is still there.","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114388632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Political and Economic Results of May 2015","authors":"S. Zhavoronkov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2620683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2620683","url":null,"abstract":"As far as Russia is concerned, the main news of May 2015 was the celebration of the 70th anniversary of VE day. Inside Russia, this country’s victory in WW2 was celebrated with true enthusiasm on a massive scale. However, an overwhelming majority of foreign heads of state had chosen to ignore the VE day celebration in Moscow, and so it was attended by the head of state of only one major power, China. At the subsequent negotiations with the Chinese leader, Russia managed to get some fi nancing from China, but its volume amounted to just several billion USD, which clearly indicates that, at least for now, Russia cannot rely on China as an adequate substitute for international fi nancial markets. According to available information, Angela Merkel’s and John Kerry’s visits to Moscow yielded only meager results. No details leaked out, but apparently these results were limited to the parties to the talks reaffi rming their support to the current truce in Ukraine. In a separate development, United Russia came up with a proposal to move Russia’s next parliamentary elections up three months to September 2016, a shift that will relegate the electoral campaign to vacati on season. As this initiative appears to be constitutionally contradictory, its future, for the time being, remains unclear","PeriodicalId":326599,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Europe & Eurasia (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131272248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}