发布求助
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
When is the Use of Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate? 何时适合使用高斯逆 Wishart-Haar Priors？
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2404
Atsushi Inoue, Lutz Kilian
{"title":"When is the Use of Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate?","authors":"Atsushi Inoue, Lutz Kilian","doi":"10.24149/wp2404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2404","url":null,"abstract":"Several recent studies have expressed concern that the Haar prior typically employed in estimating sign-identified VAR models is driving the prior about the structural impulse responses and hence their posterior. In this paper, we provide evidence that the quantitative importance of the Haar prior for posterior inference has been overstated. How sensitive posterior inference is to the Haar prior depends on the width of the identified set of a given impulse response. We demonstrate that this width depends not only on how much the identified set is narrowed by the identifying restrictions imposed on the model, but also depends on the data through the reduced-form model parameters. Hence, the role of the Haar prior can only be assessed on a case-by-case basis. We show by example that, when the identification is sufficiently tight, posterior inference based on a Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar prior provides a reasonably accurate approximation.","PeriodicalId":322311,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers","volume":"60 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141691048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Online Appendix to Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks 估算宏观经济新闻和意外冲击的在线附录
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2304app
Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante, Alexander W. Richter
{"title":"Online Appendix to Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks","authors":"Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante, Alexander W. Richter","doi":"10.24149/wp2304app","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2304app","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":322311,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers","volume":"21 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140269364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Narrative Analysis of Federal Appropriations for Research and Development 对联邦研发拨款的叙述性分析
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2316
Andrew J. Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens
{"title":"A Narrative Analysis of Federal Appropriations for Research and Development","authors":"Andrew J. Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens","doi":"10.24149/wp2316","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2316","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":322311,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers","volume":"68 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139020922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Oil Price Shocks and Inflation 油价冲击与通货膨胀
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2312
L. Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou
{"title":"Oil Price Shocks and Inflation","authors":"L. Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou","doi":"10.24149/wp2312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2312","url":null,"abstract":",","PeriodicalId":322311,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126835061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy 不确定经济中的金融冲击
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2308
Chiara Scotti
{"title":"Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy","authors":"Chiara Scotti","doi":"10.24149/wp2308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2308","url":null,"abstract":",","PeriodicalId":322311,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128815326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global Transportation Decarbonization 全球运输脱碳
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2309
D. Rapson, E. Muehlegger
{"title":"Global Transportation Decarbonization","authors":"D. Rapson, E. Muehlegger","doi":"10.24149/wp2309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2309","url":null,"abstract":"Replacing fossil fuels in the name of decarbonization is necessary but will be particularly difficult due to their as-yet unrivaled bundle of attributes: abundance, ubiquity, energy density, transportability and cost. There is a growing commitment to electrification as the dominant decarbonization pathway. While deep electrification is promising for road transportation in wealthy countries, it will face steep obstacles. In other sectors and in the developing world, it’s not even in pole position. Global transportation decarbonization will require decoupling emissions from economic growth, and decoupling emissions from growth will require not only new technologies, but cooperation in governance. The menu of policy options is replete with grim tradeoffs, particularly as the primacy of energy security and reliability (over emissions abatement) has once again been demonstrated in Europe and elsewhere.","PeriodicalId":322311,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115802453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises 如何基于每日期货市场惊喜构建月度VAR代理
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2310
L. Kilian
{"title":"How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises","authors":"L. Kilian","doi":"10.24149/wp2310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2310","url":null,"abstract":",","PeriodicalId":322311,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124897806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Complementary Currencies and Liquidity: The Case of Coca-Based Money 互补货币与流动性:以古柯币为例
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2307
Cristian Frasser, Lucie Lebeau
{"title":"Complementary Currencies and Liquidity: The Case of Coca-Based Money","authors":"Cristian Frasser, Lucie Lebeau","doi":"10.24149/wp2307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2307","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":322311,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers","volume":"428 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115999561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Online Appendix to The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks 《政府研发回报:来自美国拨款冲击的证据》在线附录
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2305app
Andrew J. Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens
{"title":"Online Appendix to The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks","authors":"Andrew J. Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens","doi":"10.24149/wp2305app","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2305app","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the causal impact of government-funded R&D on business-sector productivity growth. Identification is based on a novel narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in appropriations for R&D funded by five major federal agencies. Using long-horizon local projections and the narrative measures, we find that an increase in appropriations for nondefense R&D leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity, and higher productivity in the long run. We structurally estimate the production function elasticity of nondefense government R&D capital using the SP-IV methodology of Lewis and Mertens (2023)","PeriodicalId":322311,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122125752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession 货币问题:广义货币与名义GDP从2019冠状病毒病衰退中复苏
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp2306
Michael D. Bordo, John V. Duca
{"title":"Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession","authors":"Michael D. Bordo, John V. Duca","doi":"10.24149/wp2306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2306","url":null,"abstract":"The rise of inflation in 2021 and 2022 surprised many macroeconomists who ignored the earlier surge in money growth because past instability in the demand for simple-sum monetary aggregates had made these aggregates unreliable indicators. We find that the demand for more theoretically-based Divisia aggregates can be modeled and that their growth rates provide useful information for future nominal GDP growth. Unlike M2 and Divisia-M2, whose velocities do not internalize shifts in liabilities across commercial and shadow banks, the velocities of broader Divisia monetary aggregates are more stable and can be reasonably empirically modeled in both the short run and the long run through the COVID-19 pandemic and to date. In the long run, these velocities depend on regulatory changes and mutual fund costs that affect the substitutability of money for other financial assets. In the short run, we control for swings in mortgage activity and use vaccination rates and an index of the stringency of government pandemic restrictions to control for the unusual effects of the pandemic. The velocity of broad Divisia money temporarily declines during crises like the Great and COVID Recessions, but later rebounds. In each recession monetary policy lowered short-term interest rates to zero and engaged in quantitative easing of about $4 trillion. Nevertheless, broad money growth was more robust in the COVID Recession, likely reflecting that the banking system was less impaired and could promote rather than hinder multiple deposit creation. Partly as a result, our framework implies that nominal GDP growth and inflationary pressures rebounded much more quickly from the COVID Recession versus the Great Recession. We consider different scenarios for future Divisia money growth and the unwinding of the pandemic that have different implications for medium-term nominal GDP growth and inflationary pressures as monetary policy tightening seeks to restore low inflation.","PeriodicalId":322311,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Papers","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126815325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
下一页 尾页
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整，为了账户安全，请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们：info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务，方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号：481959085
Book学术官方微信