Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR最新文献

{"title":"Data Ecology and Accurate Portrait: Optimization of Credit Risk System for SMEs in Supply Chain Finance Based on Big Data Technology","authors":"Chenyang Wu, Jinyue Liu, Hongmei Zhang","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v11i4.310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v11i4.310","url":null,"abstract":"Big data technology can collect data, store it, mine it, and create an accurate portrait. It can assist financial institutions in resolving information asymmetry between banks and enterprises, as well as lowering the likelihood of default of small and medium-sized financing enterprises (SMEs). The credit risk system for SMEs in supply chain finance can realize “visualization” management of credit risk with the help of open public data in government affairs, collaborative development of various technologies, and the establishment of an ecological platform with transparent and accurate data portraits. The platform with accurate risk warning capability can reduce the risk monitoring cost and improve the risk management efficiency of financial institutions. The core enterprises are more willing to grant credit to SMEs through the big data technology supervision platform, which significantly improves the financing efficiency of SMEs. Moreover, a better financing credit circumstance also could improve transaction efficiency of enterprises and deeply connect the business relationship between enterprises. The main conclusion of this research: big data technology has a significant impact on supply chain in the digital economy era. Firstly, big data technology can identify credit risks accurately, which narrows the \"information gap\" between financial institutions and supply chain financing enterprises, and lower the likelihood of credit default. Secondly, financial institutions can allocate funds accurately based on the “visualization” information provided by the big data platform, and strengthen supervision of the use of funds. Lastly, the supply chain finance credit risk supervision system based on big data technology promotes the deep integration of big data and real economy. Therefore, in order to ensure the sustainable development of supply chain finance and financing risk management, it is necessary to create a digital ecosystem of supply chain finance with supply chain finance control tower as its core, as well as a supply chain finance credit risk control system based on big data in the context of the continuous development of big data technology.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82407152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Systematic Literature Review on the Credit Risk Management of Big Tech Lending","authors":"Mu Zhang, Cheng-Fu Cao","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v11i3.303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v11i3.303","url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews the relevant research of Big Tech Lending credit risk management in order to promote the research on the theory and method of credit risk management of Big Tech Lending. At present, relevant research results at home and abroad mainly concentrated on internet finance, credit risk analysis and control of digital inclusive finance and financial technology, and large-tech credit risk management framework research. Under the background of financial technology, the research on the theory and method of credit risk management of Big Tech Lending is in its infancy at home and abroad. The explanatory nature of the risk control methods of large-scale technology credit is relatively low, resulting in the fact that government supervision department cannot well identify the stability of such loans, which is a key issue that needs to be solved urgently in the credit risk management of large-scale technology credit. The research directions of Big Tech Lending credit risk management in the future include: Big Tech Lending credit risk perception and its influencing factors, Big Tech Lending credit risk control mechanism research and Big Tech Lending credit risk early warning model research.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87528684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of COVID-19 Epidemic Control Efficiency Based on SIRS Model","authors":"Kai Xu, Xiaofeng Xie, X. Hang, Fengying Zhang, Qian Qian, Zongfang Zhou, D. Li, Yu Jiang","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v11i3.302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v11i3.302","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the SIRS epidemic model embedded in complex network theory and the COVID-19 spreading characteristics, the influence of prevention & control and treatment on the ontagion of COVID-19 and the stability of social network is analyzed separately in this paper. The results show that the contagion of COVID-19 leads to the risk stability of social network. The number of infected persons is decreased by prevention & control and treatment which drives social network to risk-free stability. The treatment is more effective than prevention & control against COVID-19. Compared with prevention & control, treatment can make social network more risk-free and stable faster.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86713242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Access Risk Management for Arabian IT Company for Investing Based on Prediction of Supervised Learning","authors":"Bhupinder Singh, Santosh Kumar Henge","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v11i3.300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v11i3.300","url":null,"abstract":"The study focuses on chances of profit from Saudi IT company to increase with few losing trade and a less margin winning investing decisions. Fear and greed are two psychological points that dominates the investing decisions. The main objective of the research to study the risk management related to Al Moammar Information Systems that is listing on Saudi Share market. Previous Research relied on limited methods for prediction of accurate price for investing in the current bullish Markets. The research also emphasizes on predicting the right price for investing on the basis of Supervised Learning methods involving Support Vector Machine, Random Forest Regression, XGBoost, Auto Arima and Quasi Poisson Regression. Research has found that the right price to investing in this company comes out to be 106.945 on the prediction of previous 6 months period data. Data is sourced though Yahoo Finance api in form of Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Volume, Dividends and Stock Splits. This solution can be fruitful for newly trained investors who are willing to invest for long term basis.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90091798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Old Lessons of Risk Assessment and Management from the COVID-19 Pandemics and Individual Infections Dynamics","authors":"R. Duffey, E. Zio","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v11i3.301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v11i3.301","url":null,"abstract":"“Certainty creates strength…Uncertainty creates weakness” (John M Barry “The Great Influenza”, 2005, Penguin Books, p261.). “The theory is this, that it would be appropriate to believe in a proposition until there is a founded reason to suppose its truth. If this view were to become commonly agreed upon, our social lives and our political system would turn out completely changed.” (Bertrand Russell, Sceptical Essays, 1928). “The best way to prevent becoming infected is to avoid being exposed to the virus” (Source: www.astho.org/COVID-19/Q-and-A/). The recent and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is confirming that our society is vulnerable to global risk and that science and politics are challenged by the associated high uncertainties. This makes a number of old, foundational questions on risk and its management re-emerge. In this paper, specifically for the risk posed by the current pandemic and the infection spreading phenomena driving it, we observe from data and show from theory that there are four characteristic and very human-determined timescales for infection-spread rates. Then, we conclude on the need of putting the humans in the middle/focus of risk, as they are the ones that ultimately take decisions (almost rationally) and live their outcomes. So, we argue the obvious: that is, that for managing risk, it is necessary to realize and accept rationally that risk is not absolute- it is relative and in the uncertainty of the occurrence of different events, some just have more chance of occurring than others (i.e. high versus low chance). To evaluate and compare risks, as a society we should weigh, rank and decide the intertwined balances and resulting inequalities.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"547 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86971699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Infection Waves in Pandemics and Risk Prediction: Physical Diffusion Theory and Data Comparisons","authors":"R. Duffey","doi":"10.2991/JRACR.K.210609.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/JRACR.K.210609.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87164467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Food Security Risks of Countries along the Belt and Road in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Chao Zhang, Yanzhao Yang, Zhi-ming Feng, Tingting Lang, Xiufen Wang, Ying Liu","doi":"10.2991/JRACR.K.210503.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/JRACR.K.210503.001","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered concerns about the global food crisis, thus identification of food security risks constitutes an important basis for responding to the influence of the pandemic. In this study, the influence path of the pandemic on food security was analyzed first. Then, the risk nodes of the trade network of countries along the Belt and Road were identified by complex network analysis. Further, food security risks were comprehensively assessed, and dominant risk types were systematically determined by using a four-dimensional integrated food security risk assessment model. According to the results: (1) The COVID-19 pandemic adds to the uncertainty of food security, lowers the efficiency and stability of international trade, highlights the importance of domestic supply, and exposes the vulnerability of external dependence. (2) The Main Cereals Trade Network (MCTN) presents typical scale-free features in the Belt and Road, and core countries significantly affect the stable service of the network. However, as spreading of COVID-19, these countries may pose potential risks to the global food market in the future, by disrupting MCTN. (3) The possession of cereals less","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82214443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-Scale Climate Change and Its Influencing Factors in Northern Shaanxi during 1960–2020","authors":"S. Xue, Zhou Qi","doi":"10.2991/JRACR.K.210430.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/JRACR.K.210430.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84103510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk Perception Biases and the Resilience of Ethics for Complying with COVID-19-Pandemic-Related Safety Measures","authors":"B. Rajaonah, E. Zio","doi":"10.2991/jracr.k.210707.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/jracr.k.210707.001","url":null,"abstract":"This perspective paper presents factors that bias COVID-19-related risk judgments and risks decisions, such as cognitive biases, affect heuristic, mental models of risk and trust. The goal is to raise the debate about the difficulty of risk communication in inducing attitudinal and behavioral change regarding protective measures. Talking about morality and ethics seems to be less than ever obsolete and more than ever necessary, it may even be seen like a ‘spare tire’ after one and a half year of risk communication and almost four million deaths. Maybe it is time to think in terms of resilience at all levels, from the citizen of humanity to the highest institutions.","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86653570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on Information Channel of Climate Change Risk Perception of Shaanxi People","authors":"S. Xue, Qi Zhou","doi":"10.2991/JRACR.K.210331.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/JRACR.K.210331.001","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of global climate change, major natural disasters happen frequently, and risks of climate change has further increased. The public are not only the most extensive and direct disaster bearers of climate change risk events, but also the most specific executors of disaster prevention and mitigation policies [1,2]. People’s ability to perceive climate change risks greatly influences their response ability. In other words, perception determines action [3]. An in-depth study of public climate change risk perception is an effective way to improve the public’s ability to cope with climate change risks and reduce their vulnerability [4,5]. It also has certain practical significance for the research on national climate change risk perception and response. As scholars continue to deepen their research on climate change risk perception [6], climate change that attracts worldwide concern has gradually transformed into a scientific topic concerning the public. In this process, due to differences in climate change risk perception and knowledge between scientists and the public, the dissemination of climate change information has become an important platform for communication between scientists and the public, which directly influences whether the public can achieve favorable communication with governments and scientists. The dissemination channels and sources of climate change risk information determine whether people can accurately recognize climate change as a macro-abstract natural phenomenon, thereby influencing their attitudes and behaviors toward climate change risks. Smith [7] held that media culture, technology and practice create the opportunity to enhance public’s understanding and identification of climate change risks. Studies, such as by Maria Carmen Lemos, indicated that there is a gap between useful information understood by scientists and useful information recognized by users [8]. Hmielowski [9] also found through several studies that trust in scientists influences the use of news media, which in turn influences the understanding of global warming. Lack of information was repeatedly identified by Archie [10], among others, as an obstacle to climate change adaptation planning and implementation. Lynch [11], among others, suggested that the multiple utilization of communication tools will facilitate climate change science, as well as mitigation and adaptation policy formulation. Carmichael and Brulle [12] using structural equation models showed that although media reports play an important role, they are largely the result of elite suggestion and economic factors [12]. Julia et al. [13] noted that similar to six inter-American studies of global warming, different attitudes (the five Germanys of global warming) result in differences in understanding climate change, media use, and communication behavior. John Wiley & Sons believed that key aspects of the communication process (including the purpose and scope of communication, the aud","PeriodicalId":31887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response JRACR","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87452666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}