Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics最新文献_第2页

PERBANDINGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA PERAMALAN NILAI EKSPOR DI INDONESIA

Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15590

Rindang Ndaru Puspita

引用次数: 2

PEMODELAN SPASIAL PRODUKSI IKAN PADA INDUSTRI BUDIDAYA PERIKANAN DI KOTA CILEGON 对西勒贡渔业渔业的空间生产模型

Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i2.16753

Atia Sonda, Faula Arina, Ade Sri Mariawati, Asep Ridwan, D. L. Trenggonowati

引用次数: 0

PEMODELAN STRUKTURAL EQUATION MODEL- PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE (SEM-PLS) PADA MINAT BERTRANSAKSI MENGGUNAKAN APLIKASI OVO

Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i2.16882

Setia Ningsih, Hendra H. Dukalang, A. Arsal

引用次数: 0

STOCHASTIC MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MEDIA CAMPAIGN ON TRANSMISSION OF COVID – 19 EPIDEMIC. 媒体宣传对covid - 19疫情传播影响的随机模型分析。

Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15878

K. Bashiru, T. Ojurongbe, M. L. Olaosebikan, N. Adeboye, H. A. Afolabi, Ife Olukotun

{"title":"STOCHASTIC MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MEDIA CAMPAIGN ON TRANSMISSION OF COVID – 19 EPIDEMIC.","authors":"K. Bashiru, T. Ojurongbe, M. L. Olaosebikan, N. Adeboye, H. A. Afolabi, Ife Olukotun","doi":"10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15878","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15878","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID - 19 pandemic is currently causing authorities and public health officials more concern. The goal of the project is to convert a deterministic model for COVID-19 transmissions to a stochastic model, and then analyze the results to see how media-driven awareness campaigns have an impact on the disease's spread. The dynamic COVID-19 model was converted to a stochastic model, which was then examined. The model includes the following categories: Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected class (I), Isolated class ( ), Aware class and Recovered class (R), as well as the Cumulative density of awareness programs by media denoted by . With the help of MATLAB, the converted model is then numerically solved using the Eula Maruyama approach, allowing the existence and uniqueness of the model to be examined. The implementation of awareness programs has been found to have a significant positive impact on the spread of COVID-19. As the rate of implementation of these programs rises, the population that is exposed to the virus and those who are infected with it declines, and it has been hypothesized that this will eventually cause COVID-19 to become extinct. According to the report, putting awareness campaigns into place can help stop the COVID-19 epidemic from spreading.","PeriodicalId":315674,"journal":{"name":"Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128243648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

PERAMALAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLLAR AMERIKA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA)

Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15469

Gelbi Ardesfira, Hazulil Fitriah Zedha, Iin Fazana, Julia Rahmadhiyanti, Siti Rahima, Samsul Anwar

{"title":"PERAMALAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLLAR AMERIKA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA)","authors":"Gelbi Ardesfira, Hazulil Fitriah Zedha, Iin Fazana, Julia Rahmadhiyanti, Siti Rahima, Samsul Anwar","doi":"10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15469","url":null,"abstract":"The Rupiah exchange rate was immensely influential in maintaining the stability of the country's economy. The weakening of the rupiah exchange rate would have an impact on the national economy. Therefore, a forecast was needed to determine the exchange rate of the Rupiah in the future, especially against the US Dollar (USD). This study aimed to predict the rupiah exchange rate against the USD in 2022 and 2023. The data employed were the rupiah exchange rate data against the USD from January 2001 to December 2021. The forecasting method utilized in this study was the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The most suitable ARIMA model in forecasting the Rupiah exchange rate against USD was ARIMA (3,1,1). Forecasting results showed the Rupiah exchange rate weakened more significantly in 2022 and 2023, reaching IDR 14,484.5 and IDR 14,704.7 per USD, respectively, with the highest forecast limit reaching IDR 16,691.6 at the end of 2022 and IDR 17,781.8 at the end of 2023. The government needed preparing special policies in an effort to maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate in the future.","PeriodicalId":315674,"journal":{"name":"Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133600830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

PERBANDINGAN METODE ANN BACKPROPAGATION DAN ARMA UNTUK PERAMALAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA

Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15440

M. Amaly, Ristu Haiban Hirzi, B. Basirun

{"title":"PERBANDINGAN METODE ANN BACKPROPAGATION DAN ARMA UNTUK PERAMALAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA","authors":"M. Amaly, Ristu Haiban Hirzi, B. Basirun","doi":"10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15440","url":null,"abstract":"A country's development progress can be measured by good economic growth. If economic growth experiences rapid growth, it will usually trigger price increases. The occurrence of an uncontrolled increase in the price of goods or services for the needs of the community can cause inflation. inflation rate for a country is an inflation rate that has a low and stable value. One alternative is to provide an overview of the inflation in Indonesia by using forecasting analysis techniques. In this study, inflation forecasting analysis in Indonesia was carried out using the ANN Backpropagation and ARMA methods. The purpose of this research is to compare the performance results of the two methods and look at the best method for forecasting results. Based on the results of the analysis with the ANN Backpropagation method, the best network architecture model was ANN(7-4-1) using an epoch value of 400 and a learning rate of 0,1 with a value of MSE = 0,0112 and RMSE = 0,1065. While the results of the analysis using the ARMA method, the best model was obtained, namely ARMA(2,0,1) with the value MSE = 0,0648 and RMSE = 0,2545. So that the most optimal method used to predict inflation for the next period is the ANN Backpropagation method because it has a smaller error value. From this model, the results of forecasting inflation rates for the months of May to December 2022 are also obtained with a range of 0,01% to 0,5%. ","PeriodicalId":315674,"journal":{"name":"Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114580840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

THE OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS CURVE OF THE ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING OF TYPE-A BASED ON OUTGOING PERCENT DEFECTIVE LOT 基于出库不合格品百分比的a型验收抽样的工作特性曲线

Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2022-11-08 DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15965

Bahagia Rafika Dewi, F. Gunawan, F. Alamsjah

{"title":"THE OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS CURVE OF THE ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING OF TYPE-A BASED ON OUTGOING PERCENT DEFECTIVE LOT","authors":"Bahagia Rafika Dewi, F. Gunawan, F. Alamsjah","doi":"10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15965","url":null,"abstract":"The common type-A of Operating Characteristics (OC) curve measures the consumer’s risk through the incoming quality. However, the proportion of defective can alter after the sampling process; hence, the measure of consumer’s risk is better described by the outgoing quality or lot quality of post sampling inspection. A modified OC curve is developed based on the outgoing quality for two applicable cases; returned samples to the lot and non-returned or destructive samples. This research aims to develop the algorithm and evaluate the alternative acceptance sampling plan for isolated lots by outgoing percent defective. For the returned samples, the acceptance sampling requires less sample than that based on the common OC-curve and is seen as an opportunity for sampling size reduction. The number of reduced samples varies depending on the input parameters: Acceptance Quality Level (AQL), Rejectable Quality Limit (RQL), producer’s risk (α), consumer’s risk (β), and lot size (N). For the non-returned sample, more sample size (n) is required, even more than that of using the Binomial distribution’s sample size, which has been considered conservative.","PeriodicalId":315674,"journal":{"name":"Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123235780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL PENGARUH JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE KOYCK DAN ALMON 按照KOYCK和ALMON的方法，货币供应滞后影响美元汇率

Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i1.11805

Srirapi H Lihawa, Resmawan Resmawan, Dewi rahmawaty Isa, La Ode Nashar

引用次数: 0

PENERAPAN MODEL SPASIAL DURBIN DENGAN UJI LANJUTAN LOCAL INDICATOR OF SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION UNTUK MELIHAT PENYEBARAN STUNTING DI KABUPATEN BONE BOLANGO

Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i1.13083

Lisa Syahria Hasiru, Ismail Djakaria, Isran K. Hasan

{"title":"PENERAPAN MODEL SPASIAL DURBIN DENGAN UJI LANJUTAN LOCAL INDICATOR OF SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION UNTUK MELIHAT PENYEBARAN STUNTING DI KABUPATEN BONE BOLANGO","authors":"Lisa Syahria Hasiru, Ismail Djakaria, Isran K. Hasan","doi":"10.34312/jjps.v3i1.13083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34312/jjps.v3i1.13083","url":null,"abstract":"One of the spatial regression analysis used is the spatial durbin model (SDM). This model can be applied to obtain the relationship between X and Y variables and their spatial effects. This research was continued by testing the local spatial autocorrelation, namely the local indicator of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) which aims to provide information on the pattern of spatial relationships of each observation area in Bone Bolango regency. Stunting cases in Gorontalo province, especially in Bone Bolango regency, are in a status that needs to be addressed immediately due to the prevalence rate in Bone Bolango regency in 2019 above 20% based on the WHO standard. The results showed that the factors that significantly affected stunting in 2019 in Bone Bolango regency were exclusive breastfeeding, the proper sanitation and poverty. Meanwhile, based on the spatial effect, the factors that significantly affected stunting in 2019 in Bone Bolango regency were the percentage of exclusive breastfeeding, the percentage of LBW, the number of children with CBI and poverty. Based on result from the LISA, the observation areas of stunting cases showed that the percentage of exclusive breastfeeding, the number of children with CBI and povertu had a spatial autocorrelation or forming a grouping on the distribution of the stunting cases, the number of children with IDL and poverty, there are sub-districts that have spatial autocorrelation.","PeriodicalId":315674,"journal":{"name":"Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125466929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

PERBANDINGAN METODE LIFE TABLE DAN METODE KAPLAN MEIER PADA ANALISIS SURVIVAL PENDERITA STROKE DI RSUD ALOEI SABOE KOTA GORONTALO PADA AGUSTUS SAMPAI DENGAN DESEMBER 2019 2011年8月至2019年12月，在GORONTALO镇，抑郁症患者生存分析与卡普兰迈耶的方法比较

Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i1.14178

Dewi Zulyani Pomalingo, Ismail Djakaria, B. R. Payu

引用次数: 0