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Bitcoin’s Decentralized Decision Structure 比特币的去中心化决策结构
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2019-07-16 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201912
Ben R. Craig, Joseph Kachovec
{"title":"Bitcoin’s Decentralized Decision Structure","authors":"Ben R. Craig, Joseph Kachovec","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201912","url":null,"abstract":"With the introduction of bitcoin, the world got not just a new currency, it also got evidence that a decentralized control structure could work in practice for institutional governance. This Commentary discusses the advantages and disadvantages of centralized and decentralized control structures by examining the features of the bitcoin payment system. We show that while the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin network \"democratizes\" payments, it is not obvious that the approach increases the equity or efficiency of markets or that the costs of the decentralized control structure won’t outweigh the benefits in the long run.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117180372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Policy Implications Depend on the Cause 菲利普斯曲线趋平:政策含义取决于原因
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2019-07-10 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201911
Filippo Occhino
{"title":"The Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Policy Implications Depend on the Cause","authors":"Filippo Occhino","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201911","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201911","url":null,"abstract":"According to the historical relationship known as the Phillips curve, strengthening of the economy is commonly associated with increasing inflation. With inflation having only modestly picked up in the past few years as the economy has become more robust, many believe the Phillips curve relationship has weakened, with the curve becoming flatter. I show that the flattening can be due to very different types of structural changes and that knowing the type of change that has occurred is crucial for choosing the appropriate monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125407991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Behavior of a New Median PCE Measure: A Tale of Tails 一种新的个人消费支出中值测量的行为:一个反面的故事
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2019-07-09 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201910
Daniel R. Carroll, Randal J. Verbrugge
{"title":"Behavior of a New Median PCE Measure: A Tale of Tails","authors":"Daniel R. Carroll, Randal J. Verbrugge","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201910","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201910","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce two new measures of trend inflation, a median PCE inflation rate and a median PCE excluding OER inflation rate, and investigate their performance. Our analysis indicates that both perform comparably to other simple trend inflation estimators such as the trimmed-mean PCE. Furthermore, we find that the performance of the median PCE is related to skewness in the distribution of cross-sectional growth rates across categories in the PCE, and our results suggest that the Bowley skewness statistic may be useful in forecasting.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128821905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Changes in the Occupational Structure of the United States: 1860 to 2015 美国职业结构的变化:1860年至2015年
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2019-06-26 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201909
Joel A. Elvery
{"title":"Changes in the Occupational Structure of the United States: 1860 to 2015","authors":"Joel A. Elvery","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201909","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201909","url":null,"abstract":"This Commentary describes how the mix of occupations in which people have been employed in the United States has evolved over time. After 100 years of dramatic change, the mix of occupations has been more stable since 1970. This trend adds occupational structure to the growing list of ways our nation’s economy has become less dynamic in recent decades.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126816828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Population, Migration, and Generations in Urban Neighborhoods 城市社区的人口、移民和世代
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2019-05-14 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201908
S. Whitaker
{"title":"Population, Migration, and Generations in Urban Neighborhoods","authors":"S. Whitaker","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201908","url":null,"abstract":"The number of people living in urban neighborhoods has been rising in recent decades. This Commentary investigates changes in the number, ages, and financial status of those who have been moving into and out of urban neighborhoods, using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel. I find that since 2000, the increase in urban populations is the result of young adults migrating into urban neighborhoods and senior citizens aging in place. Urban populations have also become more educated and well to do. While declining urban neighborhoods may still outnumber growing urban neighborhoods within some regions, urban leaders there can work toward population or tax base growth knowing that consumer tastes and national trends are favorable to those goals.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"381 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129011597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
12 Facts about Temporary Urbanists 关于临时城市规划师的12个事实
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2019-05-14 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201907
S. Whitaker
{"title":"12 Facts about Temporary Urbanists","authors":"S. Whitaker","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201907","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201907","url":null,"abstract":"Urban areas seem to be enjoying a renaissance of sorts due in part to the many young professionals who have moved into central neighborhoods since the 2000s. Many of these young professionals are thought to move back out after they have started families, but the details of these migration patterns are not well-known. I analyze data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel to answer 12 questions about these temporary urbanists—those who choose to move into an urban neighborhood and spend part of their early adulthood there.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134258618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Changing Policy Rule Parameters Implied by the Median SEP Paths 改变SEP路径中位数所隐含的策略规则参数
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2019-04-15 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201906
Edward S. Knotek
{"title":"Changing Policy Rule Parameters Implied by the Median SEP Paths","authors":"Edward S. Knotek","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201906","url":null,"abstract":"This Commentary estimates the implied parameters of simple monetary policy rules using the median paths for the federal funds rate and other economic variables provided in the Federal Open Market Committee's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The implied policy rule parameters appear to have changed over time, as the federal funds rate projections have become less responsive to the unemployment gap. This finding could reflect changes in policymakers' preferences, uncertainty over other aspects of the policy rule, or limitations of estimating simple monetary policy rules from the median SEP paths.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124385666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth Remains after Latest BEA Improvements 在最新的东亚经济指数改善后，GDP增长的剩余季节性仍然存在
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2019-04-11 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201905
Victoria N. Consolvo, Kurt G. Lunsford
{"title":"Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth Remains after Latest BEA Improvements","authors":"Victoria N. Consolvo, Kurt G. Lunsford","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201905","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201905","url":null,"abstract":"Measuring economic growth is complicated by seasonality, the regular fluctuation in economic activity that depends on the season of the year. The BEA uses statistical techniques to remove seasonality from its estimates of GDP, but some research has indicated that seasonality remains. As a result, the BEA began a three-phase plan in 2015 to improve its seasonal-adjustment techniques, and in July 2018, it completed phase 3. Our analysis indicates that even after these latest improvements by the BEA, residual seasonality in GDP growth remains. On average, this residual seasonality makes GDP growth appear to be slower in the first quarter of the year and more rapid in the second quarter of the year. Rapid second-quarter growth is particularly noticeable in recent years. As a result, business economists and policymakers may want to take seasonality into account when using GDP to assess the health of the economy.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114615003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Custom Comparison Groups in the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System 高等教育综合数据系统中的自定义比较组
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2019-03-04 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201904
Peter L. Hinrichs
{"title":"Custom Comparison Groups in the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System","authors":"Peter L. Hinrichs","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201904","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201904","url":null,"abstract":": This Economic Commentary studies the behavior of colleges when they are asked to list a set of comparison group colleges in annual data reporting for the US Department of Education but are given little direction on how to do so. I find that, relative to themselves, colleges tend to list for comparison colleges that are more selective, are larger, and have better resources. One possible interpretation of these findings is that colleges overestimate where they stand relative to others, although an alternative interpretation is that colleges have accurate views but list comparison institutions based on aspirations.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128824485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 33
Do Longer Expansions Lead to More Severe Recessions? 更长时间的扩张会导致更严重的衰退吗?
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2019-01-14 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201902
Murat Tasci, Nicholas Zevanove
{"title":"Do Longer Expansions Lead to More Severe Recessions?","authors":"Murat Tasci, Nicholas Zevanove","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201902","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201902","url":null,"abstract":"We are now in one of the longest expansions on record. The recession that preceded that expansion was one of the worst in history. Are those two facts related? Some economists suggest they are, while others suggest it’s the other way around: Longer expansions lead to more severe recessions. We assess the evidence for these two hypotheses. We find clear evidence for the former and little for the latter. Deeper recessions are often followed by stronger recoveries, while longer and stronger expansions are not followed by deeper recessions.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114831196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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