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Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies最新文献

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Does Central Bank Independence in Arab Oil Exporters Matter? 阿拉伯石油出口国的央行独立性重要吗?
Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies Pub Date : 2019-05-16 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0005
Hoda Selim
{"title":"Does Central Bank Independence in Arab Oil Exporters Matter?","authors":"Hoda Selim","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0005","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter shows that central banks in Arab oil exporters are not independent. Low independence reflects institutional arrangements that allow the executive branch to influence, interfere, even dominate central bank operations. In a context of weak institutions, central bank independence (CBI) has not always mattered for macroeconomic policy outcomes. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) central banks delivered a better macroeconomic policy performance than those of the populous group because the credible peg discouraged discretion. Soft peg arrangements in the populous economies, in a context of weak institutions and discretionary policymaking and no de facto independent central bank, led to disappointing monetary policy outcomes. As oil exporters adapt to a new normal of low oil prices, the sustainability of fixed exchange rate regimes may not be guaranteed without sound macroeconomic institutions. Stronger institutions and effective accountability mechanisms are needed to insulate central banks from political pressures. In the short term, a rules-based framework could help.","PeriodicalId":310065,"journal":{"name":"Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115428497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Objectives, Issues, and Findings 目标、问题和发现
Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies Pub Date : 2019-05-16 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0001
Kamiar Mohaddes, J. Nugent, Hoda Selim
{"title":"Objectives, Issues, and Findings","authors":"Kamiar Mohaddes, J. Nugent, Hoda Selim","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0001","url":null,"abstract":"This volume aims to improve our understanding of the problems of macroeconomic management in oil-rich Arab economies. In doing so, it emphasizes the role of institutions and the political economy environment underlying them. Most importantly, it attempts to assess the effectiveness of these institutions in delivering macroeconomic stability and growth in the face of commodity price volatility, comparing actual practice in the Arab region with the budgeting procedures and countercyclical fiscal policies and rules shown to be successful in other parts of the world. The analysis here, however, goes considerably beyond that. It utilizes a political economy perspective to explain how budgeting and other fiscal policies are designed and implemented by political and administrative actors in ways that distinguish budget surpluses from deficits and pro-cyclicality from counter-cyclicality. Second, it includes monetary institutions and exchange rate regimes, and the interactions between both of these and both fiscal and political institutions.","PeriodicalId":310065,"journal":{"name":"Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127609547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Currency-plus-Commodity Basket 货币加商品篮子
Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies Pub Date : 2019-05-16 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0006
J. Frankel
{"title":"The Currency-plus-Commodity Basket","authors":"J. Frankel","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0006","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter proposes an exchange rate regime for oil-exporting countries, designed to deliver monetary policy that accommodates rather than exacerbates the effects of oil market swings, yet offers the transparency and predictability of a currency peg. The proposal is called currency-plus-commodity basket (CCB). The plan is to peg the national currency to a basket that includes not only the currencies of major trading partners but also the export commodity (oil). The chapter provides evidence from six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that times when their currencies were “undervalued” relative to the CCB alternative were periods of overheating, as reflected in high inflation, and external imbalance, as reflected in high balance-of-payments surpluses. Conversely, periods when the currencies were “overvalued” featured unusually low inflation and low balance of payments. This suggests the economy would have been more stable under CCB. Finally, the chapter offers a practical blueprint for implementation of the proposal.","PeriodicalId":310065,"journal":{"name":"Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127573617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Fiscal Outcomes in Bahrain 巴林的财政结果
Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies Pub Date : 2019-05-16 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0011
Hoda El Enbaby, Hoda Selim
{"title":"Fiscal Outcomes in Bahrain","authors":"Hoda El Enbaby, Hoda Selim","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0011","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter argues that political economy factors, rather than oil wealth, shape the budgetary process and outcomes in Bahrain. Fiscal volatility and excessive current spending (in the form of wages, social welfare, and subsidies) leading to unsustainable non-oil deficits are not fully derived from oil price volatility. Weak institutions, including those underlying the budgetary process, have contributed to some fiscal laxity. These have allowed rulers to use current spending as a channel for the redistribution of oil rents and to secure political stability and allegiance to the regime in a turbulent sociopolitical environment. The budgetary process has been undermined by the structure of the bicameral parliament, while the absence of restrictions on parliament to amend the budget weakens the position of the executive. In the general context of limited transparency and accountability, the government may also be exercising its discretionary powers over the budget execution but this cannot be known.","PeriodicalId":310065,"journal":{"name":"Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131796796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Oil, Volatility, and Institutions 石油、波动性和机构
Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies Pub Date : 2019-05-16 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0003
Amany El-Anshasy, Kamiar Mohaddes, J. Nugent
{"title":"Oil, Volatility, and Institutions","authors":"Amany El-Anshasy, Kamiar Mohaddes, J. Nugent","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0003","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter examines the long-run effects of oil revenue and its volatility on economic growth, as well as the role of institutions in this relationship. We collect annual and monthly data on 17 major oil producers between 1961 and 2013, and use the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach as well as its cross-sectionally augmented version (CS-ARDL) for estimation. Therefore, in contrast to earlier literature on the resource curse, we take into account all three key features of the panel: dynamics, heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence. The results suggest that: (i) oil revenue volatility has a significant negative effect on output growth; (ii) a higher growth rate of oil revenue significantly raises economic growth; and (iii) better fiscal policy can offset some of the negative effects of oil revenue volatility. We therefore argue that volatility in oil revenues combined with poor governmental responses to this volatility drives the resource curse paradox.","PeriodicalId":310065,"journal":{"name":"Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123701052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policy in Resource-Rich Arab Economies 资源丰富的阿拉伯经济体宏观经济政策的政治经济学
Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies Pub Date : 2019-05-16 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0002
A. Malik
{"title":"The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policy in Resource-Rich Arab Economies","authors":"A. Malik","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0002","url":null,"abstract":"Revisiting the macroeconomic policies and outcomes of Arab resource-rich economies (RREs), this chapter synthesizes the political economy considerations that underpin policy choices. It argues that, in the context of Arab RREs, fiscal policies play a particularly important role in absorbing natural resource rents. Even where monetary policy has greater room to operate, existing policy frameworks are not geared toward domestic targets, such as inflation and unemployment. I argue that the political objective function is essential for understanding these macroeconomic arrangements. With weak productive constituencies and few institutional constraints, macroeconomic policy involves limited feedback from the private sector and upholds the interest of the sovereign. In this milieu, institutional constraints on fiscal policy are more important than central bank independence (CBI). The chapter also discusses the stability implications of current macroeconomic arrangements, arguing that such stability is almost entirely predicated on the uninterrupted flow of oil rents rather than resilient institutional structures.","PeriodicalId":310065,"journal":{"name":"Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134406038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal Institutions and Macroeconomic Management in the United Arab Emirates 阿拉伯联合酋长国的财政制度和宏观经济管理
Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies Pub Date : 2019-05-16 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0012
Raimundo Soto
{"title":"Fiscal Institutions and Macroeconomic Management in the United Arab Emirates","authors":"Raimundo Soto","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0012","url":null,"abstract":"The UAE has seemingly escaped “the natural resource curse”: it is one of the richest countries in the world and ranks comparatively highly on business environment, infrastructure, and institutional development. Symptoms of the curse can nevertheless be found in the very low growth in labor productivity, massive public sector overemployment, and the inability to counteract instability induced by oil price cycles. This chapter shows that fiscal policy is highly ineffective as a countercyclical tool due to the absence of income and ad-valorem taxes. Stabilizing instruments—such as open-budgeting procedures or fiscal rules—are notoriously absent. Why would a country design its fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies so that they allow for high levels of pro-cyclicality, thereby hampering efficiency and long-run growth? A political economy explanation is developed whereby weak fiscal institutions are an agreed-upon mechanism to secure political stability and transfer oil wealth among emiratis and to future generations.","PeriodicalId":310065,"journal":{"name":"Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134043383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Performance in Resource-Dependent Economies 资源依赖型经济体的汇率制度与经济绩效
Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies Pub Date : 2019-05-16 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0007
B. Kamar, Raimundo Soto
{"title":"Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Performance in Resource-Dependent Economies","authors":"B. Kamar, Raimundo Soto","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0007","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter presents empirical findings on the relationship between resource rents, alternative exchange rate regimes, and economic performance. It shows that resource abundance leads to higher growth, while oil dependency, captured by a high level of export concentration and/or being an oil exporter, reduces economic growth relative to diversified and/or non-oil exporters. Resource rents, including oil and gas, lead to higher inflation, while oil dependence has a dampening effect. The results confirm that exchange regimes matter for the long-term performance of a resource-rich economy (RRE). Countries with floating exchange regimes tend to have lower growth and higher inflation than those with intermediate exchange rate systems but being an oil exporter helps mute the inflationary effect of floating exchange rate regimes. On the other hand, while fixed exchange rates do not have a significant direct effect on growth, they help dampen the negative effect of inflation on growth and lead to lower inflation.","PeriodicalId":310065,"journal":{"name":"Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125574179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How to Use Oil Revenues Efficiently 如何有效利用石油收入
Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies Pub Date : 2018-05-24 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0008
Shanta Devarajan
{"title":"How to Use Oil Revenues Efficiently","authors":"Shanta Devarajan","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0008","url":null,"abstract":"Oil-rich countries systematically misallocate public expenditures relative to non-oil countries—by favoring consumption over capital, and within consumption, inefficient subsidies and public sector wages over targeted transfers. Furthermore, for given levels of expenditure, value for money is considerably less in oil-rich countries. This chapter argues that the reason for this inefficiency is that oil revenues go directly to the government without passing through the hands of the citizens, as is the case with tax revenues. As a result, governments in oil countries are less accountable for public expenditure, which leads to inefficient spending. To improve public spending efficiency, we propose that all oil revenues be distributed directly to citizens, and the resources that government needs be raised through taxation. We show that such a scheme improves the efficiency of public spending. We consider possible obstacles to such a reform and show that they have been overcome by technology, politics, and global events.","PeriodicalId":310065,"journal":{"name":"Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116368495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Threshold Effects of Fiscal-Monetary Interdependence and Exchange Rate Regimes in Oil-Dependent Arab Economies 依赖石油的阿拉伯经济体中财政-货币相互依赖和汇率制度的门槛效应
Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies Pub Date : 2017-06-07 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0004
Ibrahim Elbadawi, M. Goaied, Moez Ben Tahar
{"title":"Threshold Effects of Fiscal-Monetary Interdependence and Exchange Rate Regimes in Oil-Dependent Arab Economies","authors":"Ibrahim Elbadawi, M. Goaied, Moez Ben Tahar","doi":"10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OSO/9780198822226.003.0004","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter contributes to the literature on fiscal-monetary interdependence in resource-dependent economies in the Arab World, specifically during the post-mid-1990s oil boom. It also provides empirical evidence on threshold effects for oil rents per capita. These findings support differentiated exchange rate regime choices in economies with low rent per capita, such as Sudan and Yemen, relative to wealthier Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies and Algeria. The first group suffers from fiscal dominance, which explains their choice of soft pegged exchange rate regimes and their failure to sustain credible exchange rate-based stabilization programs. GCC countries, however, managed to maintain credible de facto pegged exchange rate regimes and convertible currencies, while Algeria graduated to a successfully managed exchange rate regime. Nevertheless, in contrast to Chile and Norway, Arab oil economies still need to establish credible fiscal rules for conducting monetary policy in order to withstand the effects of permanently lower oil prices.","PeriodicalId":310065,"journal":{"name":"Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132958336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
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