Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan最新文献

ENERGY PLANT OPERATION AND INSTALLATION PLANNING VIA STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING 通过随机规划进行电厂运行和安装规划

Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15807/torsj.63.1

Tomoki Fukuba, T. Shiina, K. Tokoro

{"title":"ENERGY PLANT OPERATION AND INSTALLATION PLANNING VIA STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING","authors":"Tomoki Fukuba, T. Shiina, K. Tokoro","doi":"10.15807/torsj.63.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15807/torsj.63.1","url":null,"abstract":"An optimization model of energy plants operational planning when installing photovoltaic generation and a storage battery is developed via two-stage stochastic programming. This determines the operational planning while considering the uncertainty of the output of the photovoltaic generation. The uncertainty is represented by a set of discrete scenarios. The decisions indicating the states of the devices are made in the (cid:12)rst stage, and the amounts of the energy (cid:13)ow are determined in the second stage for each scenario. The objective is the minimization of the expected value of the operational cost. Including a nonlinear constraint for a practical operational planning, the model becomes a large-scale nonlinear mixed integer programming problem. In order to obtain an exact solution, we reformulate it as a large-scale mixed integer programming problem by introducing piecewise linear approximation. Computational results show the eﬀectiveness of our stochastic model by comparing it with the conventional deterministic model. We also calculate recovery periods of the investment cost for the photovoltaic generation and the storage battery and make an economical evaluation of installing them in Japan.","PeriodicalId":309425,"journal":{"name":"Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124388932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

A DECOMPOSITION-BASED ALGORITHM FOR TRAIN TIMETABLING PROBLEM WITH DYNAMIC PASSENGERS' DEMANDS 基于分解的动态乘客需求列车调度算法

Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15807/torsj.64.101

Ryuya Matsunaga, Hideya Shibata

引用次数: 0

HOW TO BUILD A PORTFOLIO OF INTEREST-BEARING BONDS FOCUSING ON MARKET MISPRICING 如何构建以市场错误定价为重点的有息债券投资组合

Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15807/torsj.64.1

Yoshiyuki Shimai, Naoki Makimoto

引用次数: 1

PREDICTION METHOD FOR SOLAR POWER BUSINESS BASED ON FORECASTED GENERAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC TRENDS BY WEATHER 基于预测的一般天气条件和周期性天气趋势的太阳能发电业务预测方法

Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15807/torsj.62.1

Takuji Matsumoto, Yuji Yamada

{"title":"PREDICTION METHOD FOR SOLAR POWER BUSINESS BASED ON FORECASTED GENERAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC TRENDS BY WEATHER","authors":"Takuji Matsumoto, Yuji Yamada","doi":"10.15807/torsj.62.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15807/torsj.62.1","url":null,"abstract":"With the introduction of photovoltaics rapidly accelerating and its in(cid:13)uence on the electric power system expanding, there is a growing demand for the prediction of solar power output and solar radiation. In this paper, we present a method to predict solar radiation and solar power output using an estimated trend and general weather forecasts reported by the national meteorological agency, taking particular note of a smooth periodic trend identi(cid:12)ed when dividing the measured value of solar radiation by the hourly time zone and weather. First, by constructing a generalized additive model (GAM) in which the periodic dummy variable and actual general weather conditions are used as explanatory variables, we extract the seasonal trends of solar radiation and solar power output for diﬀerent general weather scenarios, such as sunny, rainy and cloudy. Next, we estimate the probability (conditional expected value) of actualizing each weather scenario given a forecasted weather condition by using a multinomial logit model, noting that the prediction method used in common practice, in which the forecast values are directly submitted as if they were actualized, possibly brings bias to the predicted values because it excludes the probabilities that the weather forecast is wrong. Then, in combination with seasonal trends estimated by GAM, we construct a new prediction model calculating prediction values of solar radiation and power output. Finally, this study also veri(cid:12)es the superiority of this proposed prediction method in the reduction of prediction error by comparing it with preceding methods and the prediction method that directly substitutes forecast scenarios.","PeriodicalId":309425,"journal":{"name":"Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130119157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

VEHICLE ROUTE ASSIGNMENT WITH CONSIDERATION OF CROSSING AND MERGING IN GRID ROAD NETWORK 网格路网中考虑交叉和合并的车辆路线分配

Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15807/torsj.62.54

H. Miura, Shinya Kashiwagi

引用次数: 0

APPROXIMATE ANALYTICAL SOLUTION TO CONSUMPTION AND LONG-TERM SECURITY INVESTMENT OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM WITH HOMOTHETIC ROBUST UTILITY 具有相同鲁棒效用的消费与长期安全投资优化问题的近似解析解

Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15807/torsj.62.71

Bolorsuvd Batbold, Kentaro Kikuchi, Koji Kusuda

引用次数: 1

UNDER-EXPENDITURE DETERMINATION OF ELDERLY PEOPLE AND EXTRACTION OF CHARACTERISTIC EXPENDITURE ITEMS 老年人支出不足的确定与特征支出项目的提取

Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15807/torsj.64.126

Yuya Yokoyama, Y. Yoshitomi

引用次数: 0

人間社会的流行における数理モデルの提案人类社会流行的数理模型的提出

Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15807/torsj.64.22

靖大田, 直樹水谷

引用次数: 1

APPLICABILIRY OF DOMINANT MATCHINGS FOR A DONOR EXCHANGE SYSTEM ON ORGAN TRANSPLANTATION 优势配型在器官移植供体交换系统中的适用性

Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15807/torsj.65.1

Sota Usui, Morimitsu Kurino, T. Oto, Maiko Shigeno

引用次数: 0

EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF A MULTI-KEYWORD AUCTION – A CASE WHERE TWO ADVERTISERS HAVE THE SAME WEIGHTED AVERAGE VALUE 均衡分析的一个多关键字拍卖-情况下，两个广告商有相同的加权平均值

Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15807/torsj.64.204

Ayano Nakagawa

引用次数: 0