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The Ex Post Accuracy of Subjective Beliefs: A New Measure and Decomposition 主观信念事后准确性:一种新的测量方法及分解
PSN: Education (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-09-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3935587
Thomas F. Crossley, Yifan Gong, Ralph Stinebrickner, Todd R. Stinebrickner
{"title":"The Ex Post Accuracy of Subjective Beliefs: A New Measure and Decomposition","authors":"Thomas F. Crossley, Yifan Gong, Ralph Stinebrickner, Todd R. Stinebrickner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3935587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3935587","url":null,"abstract":"The choices, and hence outcomes, of students, consumers, or investors depend on their beliefs. Inaccurate beliefs lead to poor choices and undesirable outcomes. Recent attempts to elicit probabilistic expectations that capture the full distribution describing agents’ beliefs provide an opportunity to study those beliefs. We propose a novel but intuitive measure of the average ex post accuracy of a group of economic agents’ beliefs, and show how a decomposition of that measure captures different sources of inaccuracy: failure of rational expectations, subjective uncertainty, and aggregate shocks. We illustrate with application to the income expectations of college students and recent graduate in the BEREA panel survey.","PeriodicalId":300303,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Education (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129861051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Has Knowledge Improved Economic Growth? Evidence from Nigeria and South Africa 知识促进了经济增长吗?来自尼日利亚和南非的证据
PSN: Education (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3927184
O. Shobande, S. Asongu
{"title":"Has Knowledge Improved Economic Growth? Evidence from Nigeria and South Africa","authors":"O. Shobande, S. Asongu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3927184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3927184","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines whether knowledge causes economic growth in Africa's two leading economies: Nigeria and South Africa. Using the Vector Autoregressive and Vector Error Correction approach, the findings show cointegration among the variables. The speed of convergence of the variables to their long-term mean values is relatively higher for South Africa than for Nigeria. In the short run, it is observed that knowledge unidirectionally Granger causes growth for Nigeria, whereas bidirectional causality is observed for South Africa. The higher correlation between knowledge and growth in South Africa reflects the success of greater investment in education. Nigeria must increase investment in education and modern infrastructure to converge to South Africa’s growth trajectory. Moreover, for Nigeria, (i) knowledge unidirectionally Granger cause growth, (ii) evidence of bidirectional causality flow is apparent between trade, the economic incentive and growth and (iii) health unidirectionally Granger cause knowledge. As for South Africa: (i) there is bidirectional causality between knowledge, trade openness and growth, whereas investment and economic incentive, unidirectionally Granger causes growth, (ii) investment, trade openness and health unidirectionally Granger cause knowledge and (iii) economic incentive unidirectionally Granger cause trade openness. In conclusion, this paper argues that a transformed education system can provide the knowledge base essential for promoting and sustaining economic growth.","PeriodicalId":300303,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Education (Topic)","volume":"229 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123313209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Superstar Firms and College Major Choice 超级明星公司和大学专业选择
PSN: Education (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2845711
Darwin Choi, D. Lou, Abhiroop Mukherjee
{"title":"Superstar Firms and College Major Choice","authors":"Darwin Choi, D. Lou, Abhiroop Mukherjee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2845711","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2845711","url":null,"abstract":"We study the relation between the presence of superstar firms and college students' major choice. Salient occurrences of superstar performers in an industry are followed by a sharp rise in the number of college students choosing to major in related fields. This cohort effect remains significant after controlling for lagged industry returns and wages. Students' tendency to follow superstars, however, is met with lower real wages earned by entry-level employees when these students enter the job market. Further evidence from two college-graduate surveys shows that such adverse career outcomes can last for decades.","PeriodicalId":300303,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Education (Topic)","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116136115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Return on Student Loans in Canada 加拿大学生贷款的回报
PSN: Education (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29130
L. Lochner, Qian Liu, M. Gervais
{"title":"Return on Student Loans in Canada","authors":"L. Lochner, Qian Liu, M. Gervais","doi":"10.3386/w29130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29130","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses new administrative data with detailed borrower information and lengthy repayment histories from the Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP) to measure rates of return on undergraduate student loans. We document substantial heterogeneity in returns based on information available at the time loans were disbursed, including province of residence, field of study, and institution of attendance. Field of study is a particularly important determinant of rates of return, explaining 22% of the variation in predicted returns across borrowers. We explore the implications of this variation for CSLP cross-subsidization across borrowers and potential risk-based loan limits. Given the variation in ex ante predicted returns across borrowers, using all available information at the time of loan disbursement, we study the implications of potential cream-skimming of high-return borrowers by private lenders. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.","PeriodicalId":300303,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Education (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127111421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Poverty and Child's Educational Outcomes: Evidence from China's New Poverty Alleviation Program 贫困与儿童教育成果:来自中国新扶贫计划的证据
PSN: Education (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-07-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3888844
Chen Huang, Fang Zhao
{"title":"Poverty and Child's Educational Outcomes: Evidence from China's New Poverty Alleviation Program","authors":"Chen Huang, Fang Zhao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3888844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3888844","url":null,"abstract":"Poverty and low investment in human capital are believed to form a vicious circle. This paper explores China's new poverty alleviation program in 2011 and addresses the question whether anti-poverty interventions are e ective in breaking the circle by promoting better educational outcomes. We adopt a Difference-in-Differences framework and utilize the plausibly exogenous variation in household's treatment status that is largely determined by whether a county's pre-program economic conditions fell below particular thresholds and hence in principle uncorrelated with household characteristics. We further explore the selecting determinants and con firm that households in the treated and control counties are observably similar. Using data from China Family Panel Studies between 2010 and 2014, we find that being exposed to the anti-poverty interventions overall has no impact on children's school enrollment, but it signi cantly improves children's cognitive ability in both vocabulary and math. By dividing the sample based on a series of demographic characteristics, we find that the positive program impacts on child's academic achievements hold for almost every group under study. The improved parental responses in handling child's low grades, higher household income and spending on education are important contributors for these effects.","PeriodicalId":300303,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Education (Topic)","volume":"51 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114128199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Homework and Finance Students' Learning and Achievement 家庭作业与金融学生的学习与成就
PSN: Education (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-07-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3942474
Giuseppe Pratobevera
{"title":"Homework and Finance Students' Learning and Achievement","authors":"Giuseppe Pratobevera","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3942474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3942474","url":null,"abstract":"I analyze the homework and exam results of a sample of Master's students that took an advanced finance class in Switzerland. I document that homework-specific students' effort enhances their achievement in the final exam. A one-point increase in students' homework grades increases their exam scores by 0.22 points, other things equal. Placebo tests and breakdowns of the exam questions rule out endogeneity concerns and support a learning interpretation: homework-specific effort allows students to learn more, thus contributing to building their human capital. My tests fail to detect any substantial heterogeneity in these effects based on students' characteristics or assignments' frequency.","PeriodicalId":300303,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Education (Topic)","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124025400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Peer like Me? Early Exposure to High Achievers in Math and Later Educational Outcomes 像我这样的同伴?早期接触数学优等生和后来的教育成果
PSN: Education (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3895578
L. Pagani, Giovanni Pica
{"title":"A Peer like Me? Early Exposure to High Achievers in Math and Later Educational Outcomes","authors":"L. Pagani, Giovanni Pica","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3895578","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3895578","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates whether exposure to academically gifted peers of the same and opposite gender in primary school (grade 5, at age 10) affects later academic achievement (grade 8, at age 13) and high-school track choice. For identification we exploit random allocation of kids across classes within primary schools. We document that, conditional on primary school fixed effects and grade 8 class fixed effects, as well as on baseline achievement, a higher share of same/opposite- gender high-achievers in math in primary school is related, both for boys and girls, to better/worse later math academic achievement in grade 8 and to a higher/lower probability of choosing a scientific high-school track. We argue that these results are consistent with a role model channel.","PeriodicalId":300303,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Education (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128081285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Differential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on College Female and Male Students' Academic Performance 新冠肺炎疫情停课对高校男女学生学业成绩的差异影响
PSN: Education (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-06-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3945380
Zhang Gaofeng
{"title":"Differential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on College Female and Male Students' Academic Performance","authors":"Zhang Gaofeng","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3945380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3945380","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the disproportionate impact of the lockdown on the academic performance of college women and men due to the COVID-19 outbreak and study whether the inequality of students caused by the pandemic will shrink (expand or disappear) with the reopening of the school, leveraging the exogenous pandemic shock and the reopening of the campus. Using the difference-in-differences approach, we find that women were more suitable for online learning than men, with the former having the advantage of higher academic achievement than ever before. When students returned campus, the gender inequality caused by the pandemic seemingly has faded fast, and this effect remains absent a year after schools return to normal.","PeriodicalId":300303,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Education (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129594058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Polarisation or Jobless Growth? Structural Changes and Employment Trends in the Indian Labour Market: Evidence from the National Sample Survey 两极分化还是失业增长?印度劳动力市场的结构变化和就业趋势:来自全国抽样调查的证据
PSN: Education (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3935706
Pallavi Gupta
{"title":"Polarisation or Jobless Growth? Structural Changes and Employment Trends in the Indian Labour Market: Evidence from the National Sample Survey","authors":"Pallavi Gupta","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3935706","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3935706","url":null,"abstract":"Using the Indian National Sample Surveys and Participatory Labour Force Survey this paper presents a descriptive analysis of the role of education, occupation, wages and intersectoral movement of labour on the evolving demand for skills over the period of 1999-00 to 2017-18. First, the paper examines whether the increase in share of high-skill and low-skill workers is seen alongside a consequent decline in the middle-skilled workers. Second, if this change has had any unfavourable consequences on the low-skilled workers. Although an increase in demand for both high- and low-skill workers is observed, such an increase in the informal sector is largely attributed to self-employed workers. The proportion of middle-skill occupations have remained consistent for urban areas while reduced considerably for rural areas and the supply of workers with middle and secondary education are large and have remained so. A clear distress in agriculture is seen. While income security schemes and regulation of the informal workforce may reduce the social cost of increasing job polarisation, a deeper problem of skill shortage requires conscious handling.","PeriodicalId":300303,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Education (Topic)","volume":"140 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123774442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Unfair, Deceptive, and Abusive Acts and Practices in the Servicing of Void and Unenforceable ISAs 无效和不可执行的isa服务中的不公平、欺骗和滥用行为和做法
PSN: Education (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-06-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3867801
Benjamin J. Roesch, Ben Kaufman
{"title":"Unfair, Deceptive, and Abusive Acts and Practices in the Servicing of Void and Unenforceable ISAs","authors":"Benjamin J. Roesch, Ben Kaufman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3867801","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3867801","url":null,"abstract":"This memo explores how state law may render many ISA companies’ contracts unenforceable, and how the continued servicing of voided debts may amount to a violation of state and federal law. As the memo discusses, this finding may have far-reaching legal consequences for the growing share of the student loan industry involved in ISA servicing.<br><br>Because they meet the definition of loans, ISAs must comply with various state and federal consumer protection statutes and regulations. An SBPC investigation reveals that various ISA providers may be violating many of these state laws, including state usury and licensing statutes, and that violations along these lines often render consumer debts void.<br><br>The SBPC’s analysis indicates that state and federal law enforcement agencies such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau already have the capability to hold companies accountable for servicing unenforceable debt.","PeriodicalId":300303,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Education (Topic)","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125011733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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