{"title":"How Algorithmic Trading Undermines Efficiency in Capital Markets","authors":"Yesha Yadav","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2400527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2400527","url":null,"abstract":"This Article argues that the rise of algorithmic trading profoundly challenges the foundation on which much of today’s securities regulation framework rests: the understanding that securities’ prices objectively reflect available information in the market. The Efficient Capital Markets Hypothesis (ECMH) has long provided the theoretical touchstone undergirding central pillars of securities regulation. Mandatory disclosure, evidentiary presumptions in anti-fraud litigation and regulation driving the design of modern exchanges all look to the ECMH for theoretical validation. It is easy to understand why. Laws that make markets better at interpreting information can also improve their ability to allocate capital across the real economy.Theory and regulation have failed to keep pace with markets where traders rely on pre-programmed algorithms to execute trades. This Article makes two claims. First, complex algorithms foster a separation between the trader and her ability to fully control the operation of the algorithm. Algorithms can execute many thousands of trades in milliseconds, crunching vast quantities of data and dynamically interacting with other traders in the process. This intelligence makes it difficult for a trader to fully predict how an algorithm might behave ex ante and near-impossible for her to track and control its activities in real-time. Secondly, though markets have traditionally relied on informed fundamental traders to decode complexity, these actors now possess reduced incentives to perform this function in algorithmic markets. Fundamental traders routinely see their gains diminished by faster, automated counterparts, able to front-run trades and to derive maximal benefit from the research of others. In arguing that algorithmic trading is transforming how markets process and interpret information, this Article shows that conventional assumptions in securities law doctrine and policy also break down. With these insights, this Article, offers a new framework to thoroughly reevaluate the centrality of efficiency economics in regulatory design.","PeriodicalId":299189,"journal":{"name":"Vanderbilt: Finance (Topic)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123000832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Long and the Short of it: Evidence of Year-End Price Manipulation by Short Sellers","authors":"J. Blocher, Joseph Engelberg, Adam V. Reed","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1364835","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1364835","url":null,"abstract":"We identify a setting in which there is a predictable incentive for short sellers to manipulate prices, and we find patterns consistent with short sellers manipulating prices. Specifically, we find that stocks with high short interest experience abnormally low returns on the last trading day of the year. This effect is strongest among stocks that are easily manipulated and during the last hour of trading. Further, this effect reverses at the beginning of the year, consistent with the temporary nature of price manipulation. We show that hedge funds’ portfolios are closely related to market-wide short interest, suggesting that hedge funds, with their convex compensation structures, may generate the patterns we observe. In additional analysis, we find that larger price effects are associated with higher idiosyncratic volatility, offering a potential explanation for why temporary price effects are allowed to persist in the presence of rational arbitrageurs, but we find no evidence to suggest that extended non-trading-day holding periods play a role in the magnitude of the effects. Finally, we provide evidence of mutual funds and short sellers avoiding each other, and we show that downward pressure by short sellers is outweighed by upward pressure by buyers. In other words, since short sellers’ incentives are mirrored by buyers’ incentives in the opposite direction, our experiment provides evidence that short sellers manipulate prices in much the same way buyers do, and manipulation by short sellers is no stronger than manipulation by buyers.","PeriodicalId":299189,"journal":{"name":"Vanderbilt: Finance (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124887082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stephen J. Brown, Bruce D. Grundy, C. Lewis, P. Verwijmeren
{"title":"Convertibles and Hedge Funds as Distributors of Equity Exposure","authors":"Stephen J. Brown, Bruce D. Grundy, C. Lewis, P. Verwijmeren","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1567260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1567260","url":null,"abstract":"By buying convertibles and shorting the underlying stock, hedge funds distribute equity exposure to well-diversified shareholders. We find that firms with characteristics that make seasoned equity offerings expensive are more likely to issue convertibles to hedge funds. We conclude that hedge funds provide opportunities for firms to issue convertible securities at a lower cost than seasoned equity by serving as relatively low-cost distributors of equity exposure. A higher fraction of a convertible is privately placed with hedge funds when institutional ownership, stock liquidity, issue size, concurrent stock repurchases, and limitations on callability suggest that shorting costs will be lower.","PeriodicalId":299189,"journal":{"name":"Vanderbilt: Finance (Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115269566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Understanding Real Exchange Rate Movements with Trade in Intermediate Products","authors":"David Parsley, H. Popper","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.904323","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.904323","url":null,"abstract":"We suggest it may be \"too easy\" to attribute real exchange rate movements to law of one price deviations. We show that it is immaterial whether one uses seemingly traded goods, nontraded goods, or even just a single, unimportant consumer good, say beer. The ease of attributing the variation to any such deviations is explained using a model with intermediate goods trade. In the model, the stage of production determines the traded/nontraded distinction. We find empirical substantiation for the model: law of one price deviations lose explanatory power; and - defined appropriately in terms of intermediate goods - relative prices matter.","PeriodicalId":299189,"journal":{"name":"Vanderbilt: Finance (Topic)","volume":"1245 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131012268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Conditional Return Smoothing in the Hedge Fund Industry","authors":"Nicolas P. B. Bollen, V. Pool","doi":"10.1017/S0022109000003525","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109000003525","url":null,"abstract":"We show that if true returns are independently distributed and a manager fully reports gains but delays reporting losses, then reported returns will feature conditional serial correlation. We use conditional serial correlation as a measure of conditional return smoothing. We estimate conditional serial correlation in a large sample of hedge funds. We find that the probability of observing conditional serial correlation is related to the volatility and magnitude of investor cash flows, consistent with conditional return smoothing in response to the risk of capital flight. We also present evidence that conditional serial correlation is a leading indicator of fraud.","PeriodicalId":299189,"journal":{"name":"Vanderbilt: Finance (Topic)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128162714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Measuring Financial Integration Via Idiosyncratic Risk: What Effects are We Really Picking Up?","authors":"David Parsley, Christian Schlag","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.895212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.895212","url":null,"abstract":"We study the method proposed by Flood and Rose (FR, 2004, 2005) for checking for financial integration by estimating the risk-free rate using the idiosyncratic component of individual stock returns. Performing simulations with data with a known return generation process, we find that the FR methodology produces poor estimates of the risk-free rate, and hence the FR method fails to accept integration when true. We then show analytically that the FR method actually provides an estimate of the market return, and conclude the FR methodology would also falsely accept integration as long as the market returns in the two markets do not differ widely.","PeriodicalId":299189,"journal":{"name":"Vanderbilt: Finance (Topic)","volume":"36 22","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114110514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Determinants of Issue Cycles for Initial Public Offerings","authors":"C. Lewis, V. Ivanov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.471461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.471461","url":null,"abstract":"This paper identifies the determinants of market-wide and industry-specific security issue cycles using an autoregressive conditional duration model. We examine the business conditions, investor sentiment, and time-varying asymmetric information hypotheses and show that issue activity in different industries is consistent with different explanations. We find that the business conditions and sentiment hypotheses explain issue activity by manufacturing firms; while issue activity by financial institutions is partly explained by the sentiment hypothesis. On the other hand, none of these explanations are capable of explaining issue activity in the business services industry. Surprisingly, when all of these industries are pooled to examine market-wide activity, we find that none of these hypotheses are significantly related to issue activity. One explanation is that market-wide aggregation washes out much of the industry-specific information because issue activity is not perfectly correlated across industries. Using this observation, we then consider whether technological innovations are important determinants of industry-specific issue activity. We test for industry contagion by examining the periods before and after the Netscape initial public offering. We find evidence of an increase in the correlation of issue activity in related industries, which is consistent with the technological innovations hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":299189,"journal":{"name":"Vanderbilt: Finance (Topic)","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116394658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modeling the Bid/Ask Spread: Measuring the Inventory-Holding Premium","authors":"Nicolas P. B. Bollen, R. Whaley, Tom Smith","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.336242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.336242","url":null,"abstract":"The need to understand and measure the determinants of market maker bid/ask spreads is crucial in evaluating the merits of competing market structures and the fairness of market maker rents. After providing a brief review of past work, this study develops a simple, parsimonious model for the market maker's spread that accounts for the effects of price discreteness induced by minimum tick size, order-processing costs, inventory-holding costs, adverse selection, and competition. The inventory-holding and adverse selection cost components of spread are modeled as an option with a stochastic time to expiration. This inventory-holding premium embedded in the spread represents compensation for the price risk borne by the market maker while the security is held in inventory. The premium is partitioned in such a way that the inventory holding and adverse selection cost components and the probability of an informed trade are identified. The model is tested empirically on a sample of NASDAQ stocks over three distinct tick size regimes and is shown to perform well.","PeriodicalId":299189,"journal":{"name":"Vanderbilt: Finance (Topic)","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123234264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?","authors":"Nicolas P. B. Bollen, R. Whaley","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.319261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.319261","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relation between net buying pressure and the shape of the implied volatility function (IVF) for index and individual stock options. We find that changes in implied volatility are directly related to net buying pressure from public order flow. We also find that changes in implied volatility of S&P 500 options are most strongly affected by buying pressure for index puts, while changes in implied volatility of stock options are dominated by call option demand. Simulated delta-neutral option-writing trading strategies generate abnormal returns that match the deviations of the IVFs above realized historical return volatilities. Copyright 2004 by The American Finance Association.","PeriodicalId":299189,"journal":{"name":"Vanderbilt: Finance (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126131584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Timothy R. Burch, Vikram Nanda, William G. Christie
{"title":"The Rights Offer Puzzle: Clues from the 1930s and 1940s","authors":"Timothy R. Burch, Vikram Nanda, William G. Christie","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.283011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.283011","url":null,"abstract":"We study the offer choice between rights and firm commitments for a sample of industrial firms issuing equity in the 1930's and 1940's. Unlike existing studies, our sample is drawn from a time period when rights were as common an offer method for industrial firms as were firm commitments. This sample allows us to perform out-of-sample tests of existing theories of offer choice. Our analysis indicates that firms choosing rights were larger, healthier firms with lower leverage and higher cash flow liquidity. Firms electing the firm commitment method experienced significantly negative size-adjusted returns during the 12 months following the offer, consistent with recent evidence for SEO's. In striking contrast, firms issuing equity through rights were not subject to negative post-offer returns, suggesting that firm commitments were timed to exploit overvaluation while rights offers were not. Finally, we investigate a number of long term factors that could have contributed to the decision to migrate from rights issues to firm commitment.","PeriodicalId":299189,"journal":{"name":"Vanderbilt: Finance (Topic)","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131101930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}