{"title":"A review of data mining methods in financial markets","authors":"Haihua Liu, S. Huang, Peng Wang, Zejun Li","doi":"10.3934/dsfe.2021020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/dsfe.2021020","url":null,"abstract":"Financial activities are closely related to human social life. Data mining plays an important role in the analysis and prediction of financial markets, especially in the context of the current era of big data. However, it is not simple to use data mining methods in the process of analyzing financial data, due to the differences in the background of researchers in different disciplines. This review summarizes several commonly used data mining methods in financial data analysis. The purpose is to make it easier for researchers in the financial field to use data mining methods and to expand the application scenarios of it used by researchers in the computer field. This review introduces the principles and steps of decision trees, support vector machines, Bayesian, K-nearest neighbors, k-means, Expectation-maximization algorithm, and ensemble learning, and points out their advantages, disadvantages and applicable scenarios. After introducing the algorithms, it summarizes the use of the algorithm in the process of financial data analysis, hoping that readers can get specific examples of using the algorithm. In this review, the difficulties and countermeasures of using data mining methods are summarized, and the development trend of using data mining methods to analyze financial data is predicted.","PeriodicalId":290300,"journal":{"name":"Data Science in Finance and Economics","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115256676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Research on measurement and disequilibrium of manufacturing digital transformation: Based on the text mining data of A-share listed companies","authors":"Chong Li, Guoqiong Long, Shuai Li","doi":"10.3934/dsfe.2023003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/dsfe.2023003","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\u0000Quantitative analysis of digital transformation is an important part of relevant research in the digital field. Based on the annual report data of China's manufacturing listed companies from 2011 to 2019, this study applies cloud computing to the mining and analysis of text data, and uses the Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency method under machine learning to measure the digital transformation index value of manufacturing enterprises. The results show that: (1) On the whole, the current pace of digital transformation of manufacturing enterprises continues to accelerate, and the digital transformation of manufacturing has gradually spread from the eastern coastal areas to the central and western inland areas. (2) In horizontal comparison, among the five types of \"ABCDE\" digital modules constructed, artificial intelligence develops the fastest, cloud computing index value is second, and block chain value is the smallest. In vertical comparison, the leading provinces such as Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai have certain stability and a solid leading position, and there are occasional highlights in the central and western provinces. (3) In terms of polarization distribution, the digitalization of the manufacturing industry has obvious multi-peak patterns, showing the phenomenon of multi-polarization of digital services. The eastern region has both aggregate advantages and equilibrium disadvantages. (4) In terms of industry differences, the level of digital transformation in the high-end manufacturing industry is significantly higher than that in the mid-end and low-end industries. On the ownership attributes of enterprise digital transformation, private enterprises are the highest, followed by foreign-funded enterprises, and state-owned enterprises are the lowest. This research provides theoretical enlightenment and factual reference for manufacturing enterprises to carry out digital activities.\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":290300,"journal":{"name":"Data Science in Finance and Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128293004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Different GARCH models analysis of returns and volatility in Bitcoin","authors":"Changlin Wang","doi":"10.3934/dsfe.2021003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/dsfe.2021003","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p xml:lang=\"fr\" />","PeriodicalId":290300,"journal":{"name":"Data Science in Finance and Economics","volume":"127 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132888778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Cross-validation research based on RBF-SVR model for stock index prediction","authors":"F. Zhou","doi":"10.3934/dsfe.2021001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/dsfe.2021001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":290300,"journal":{"name":"Data Science in Finance and Economics","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132798404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A topological based feature extraction method for the stock market","authors":"Chen Chang, Hongfei Lin","doi":"10.3934/dsfe.2023013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/dsfe.2023013","url":null,"abstract":"We proposed a topology-based method for pre-processed time series data extracted from stock market data. The topology features are extracted from data after denoising and normalization by using a version of weighted Vietoris-Rips complex. We compare the features from bullish, bearish and normal periods of the Chinese stock market and found significant differences between the features extracted from the groups. Based on the previous research mentioned in the context, we proposed a topology-based stock market index which has the ability to distinguish different stages of the stock market and forewarn stock market crashes.","PeriodicalId":290300,"journal":{"name":"Data Science in Finance and Economics","volume":"144 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114362587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bankruptcy prediction using machine learning and an application to the case of the COVID-19 recession","authors":"Aditya Narvekar, D. Guha","doi":"10.3934/dsfe.2021010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/dsfe.2021010","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Bankruptcy prediction is an important problem in finance, since successful predictions would allow stakeholders to take early actions to limit their economic losses. In recent years many studies have explored the application of machine learning models to bankruptcy prediction with financial ratios as predictors. This study extends this research by applying machine learning techniques to a quarterly data set covering financial ratios for a large sample of public U.S. firms from 1970–2019. We find that tree-based ensemble methods, especially XGBoost, can achieve a high degree of accuracy in out-of-sample bankruptcy prediction. We next apply our best model, using XGBoost, to the problem of predicting the overall bankruptcy rate in USA in the second half of 2020, after the COVID-19 pandemic had necessitated a lockdown, leading to a deep recession. Our model supports the prediction, made by leading economists, that the rate of bankruptcies will rise substantially in 2020, but it also suggests that this elevated level will not be much higher than 2010.\u0000","PeriodicalId":290300,"journal":{"name":"Data Science in Finance and Economics","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123633318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Daily LGARCH model estimation using high frequency data","authors":"Xiaoling Chen, Xingfa Zhang, Yuan Li, Q. Xiong","doi":"10.3934/dsfe.2021009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/dsfe.2021009","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In this paper, we introduce the intraday high frequency data to estimate the daily linear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (LGARCH) model. Based on the volatility proxies constructed from the intraday high frequency data, the quasi maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) of the daily LGARCH model and its asymptotic distribution are studied under some regular assumptions. One criterion is also given to choose the optimal volatility proxy according to the asymptotic results. Simulation studies show that the QMLE of the parameters performs well. It is also found that introducing the intraday high frequency data can significantly improve the estimation precision. The proposed method is applied to analyze the SSE 50 Index, which consists of the 50 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange. Empirical results show the method is of potential application value.\u0000","PeriodicalId":290300,"journal":{"name":"Data Science in Finance and Economics","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117073585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimating credit default probabilities using stochastic optimisation","authors":"Dominic Joseph","doi":"10.3934/dsfe.2021014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/dsfe.2021014","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Banks and financial institutions all over the world manage portfolios containing tens of thousands of customers. Not all customers are high credit-worthy, and many possess varying degrees of risk to the Bank or financial institutions that lend money to these customers. Hence assessment of default risk that is calibrated and reflective of actual credit risk is paramount in the field of credit risk management. This paper provides a detailed mathematical framework using the concepts of Binomial distribution and stochastic optimisation, in order to estimate the Probability of Default for credit ratings. The empirical results obtained from the study have been illustrated to have potential application value and perform better compared to other estimation models currently in practise.\u0000","PeriodicalId":290300,"journal":{"name":"Data Science in Finance and Economics","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115327899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Expanding insurability through exploiting linear partial information","authors":"P. Zweifel","doi":"10.3934/dsfe.2022001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/dsfe.2022001","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\u0000This contribution aims to expand insurability using partial linear information (LPI) on probabilities of the type, $ {r}_{1}ge {r}_{3} $ (with $ {r}_{1}+{r}_{2}+{r}_{3}+dots {r}_{n} = {1} $). LPI theory permits to exploit such weak information for systematic decision-making provided the decision-maker is willing to apply the maxEmin criterion in a game against Nature. The maxEmin rule is a natural generalization of expected profit (probabilities are known) and the maximin rule (probabilities are unknown). LPI theory is used to find out whether a crypto assets portfolio offered to an insurance company is insurable. In an example, an unfavorable future development of losses causes maximum expected loss to exceed the present value of premiums, rendering the portfolio uninsurable according to maxEmin. However, this changes when LPI concerning this development is available, while the integration of uncertain returns from investing the extra premium fails to achieve insurability in this example. Evidently, LPI theory enables insurers to accept risks that otherwise are deemed uninsurable.\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":290300,"journal":{"name":"Data Science in Finance and Economics","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126607363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Correlation structure networks of stock market during terrorism: evidence from Pakistan","authors":"B. Memon, H. Yao","doi":"10.3934/dsfe.2021007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/dsfe.2021007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":290300,"journal":{"name":"Data Science in Finance and Economics","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115057958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}