IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic)最新文献_第2页

The Legal Status of Online Currencies: Are Bitcoins the Future? 网络货币的法律地位:比特币是未来吗?

IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2736021

R. Bollen

引用次数: 53

Tracking the Future on the Web: Construction of Leading Indicators Using Internet Searches 在网络上追踪未来:利用互联网搜索构建领先指标

IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2012-03-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2043056

C. Artola, E. Galán

{"title":"Tracking the Future on the Web: Construction of Leading Indicators Using Internet Searches","authors":"C. Artola, E. Galán","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2043056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2043056","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews some of the applications that use the vast swathes of information provided by Internet user searches for economic analysis and forecasting. This enormous volume of information, available in real time, can be handled by analysts thanks to statistical tools such as “Google Insights for Search”, which allow trends in different areas of interest to be classified and evaluated. Previous work focused predominantly on the labour market, on the housing market, on retail sales and on consumer confidence. This paper presents a very specific application for the Spanish economy: British tourist inflows to Spain (the Spanish tourist industry's main customers). The improvement in the forecasting provided by the short-term models that include the G-indicator depends on the benchmark model. This does, however, allow an adjusted indicator of the inflow of British tourists to be obtained with a lead of almost one month. This is but an initial step in the use of on-line searches for constructing leading indicators of economic activity. Other applications to be explored are car sales, consumer confidence and house purchases. The chief characteristic of these procedures is that, with time and the continuous growth of Internet use, results can only improve in the future. It should nonetheless be recalled that the construction of these G-indicators requires caution so as to avoid mistakes arising, inter alia, from the different use of language in different countries. Not taking due caution and blindly confiding in these indicators may lead to erroneous results being obtained.","PeriodicalId":287196,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125155199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 84

Do Google Searches Help in Nowcasting Private Consumption? A Real-Time Evidence for the US 谷歌搜索有助于预测个人消费吗?美国的实时证据

IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2010-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1615453

K. Kholodilin, Maximilian Podstawski, Boriss Siliverstovs

{"title":"Do Google Searches Help in Nowcasting Private Consumption? A Real-Time Evidence for the US","authors":"K. Kholodilin, Maximilian Podstawski, Boriss Siliverstovs","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1615453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1615453","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we investigate whether the Google search activity can help in nowcasting the year-on-year growth rates of monthly US private consumption using a real-time data set. The Google-based forecasts are compared to those based on a benchmark AR(1) model and the models including the consumer surveys and financial indicators. According to the Diebold-Mariano test of equal predictive ability, the null hypothesis can be rejected suggesting that Google-based forecasts are significantly more accurate than those of the benchmark model. At the same time, the corresponding null hypothesis cannot be rejected for models with consumer surveys and financial variables. Moreover, when we apply the test of superior predictive ability (Hansen, 2005) that controls for possible data-snooping biases, we are able to reject the null hypothesis that the benchmark model is not inferior to any alternative model forecasts. Furthermore, the results of the model confidence set (MCS) procedure (Hansen et al., 2005) suggest that the autoregressive benchmark is not selected into a set of the best forecasting models. Apart from several Google-based models, the MCS contains also some models including survey-based indicators and financial variables. We conclude that Google searches do help improving the nowcasts of the private consumption in US.","PeriodicalId":287196,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124662479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 66

Product Innovation and Network Survival in the U.S. ATM and Debit Card Industry 美国ATM和借记卡行业的产品创新和网络生存

IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2008-12-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1335343

Fumiko Hayashi, Zhu Wang

引用次数: 4

Technology Shocks, Structural Breaks and the Effects On the Business Cycle 技术冲击、结构性断裂及其对经济周期的影响

IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2008-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1109046

V. Atella, M. Centoni, G. Cubadda

引用次数: 5

The New Economy and the Challenges for Macroeconomic Policy 新经济与宏观经济政策的挑战

IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2002-05-01 DOI: 10.3386/W8935

Stephen G. Cecchetti

引用次数: 22

Financial Innovation and Price Volatility 金融创新与价格波动

IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2000-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.260912

A. Citanna

引用次数: 4

On the Accuracy of Producer Price Indexes for Pharmaceutical Preparations: An Audit Based on Detailed Firm-Specific Data 论制剂生产者价格指数的准确性:基于具体企业数据的审计

IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 1990-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/W3490

E. Berndt, Z. Griliches, J. Rosett

{"title":"On the Accuracy of Producer Price Indexes for Pharmaceutical Preparations: An Audit Based on Detailed Firm-Specific Data","authors":"E. Berndt, Z. Griliches, J. Rosett","doi":"10.3386/W3490","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W3490","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reports preliminary results of a detailed audit of one component of the Producer Price Index (PPI), using data from a large muiltproduct company. We compare price indexes constructed in a variety of ways from the universe of products of a large pharmaceutical manufacturer in the US, with price indexes constructed from the particular products of this firm sampled by the BIS, using BIS and alternative index number procedures. A principal finding is that price indexes based on the BIB sample of this firm grew similarly to the published PPI's for SIC 28341, but in contrast, price indexes computed using the universe of products manufactured by the firm grew much more slowly. Although some variations emerge depending on how one undertakes the calculations, our typical finding is that, employing monthly data from January 1984 through December 1989, the BIB sample price index rises at nearly the same rate as the PPI, bet at roughly twice the rate of indexes based on the universe of products shipped by this pharmaceutical firm. We also report results of a preliminary attempt to uncover the source of this disparity, we provide some evidence on the \"new goods\" problem, and we implement a procedure to mitigate the problem of \"drift\" associated with the Tornqvist approximation to the Divisia chained index.","PeriodicalId":287196,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124762324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 12

Accelerating Inflation, Technological Innovation, and the Decreasing Effectiveness of Banking Regulation 通货膨胀加速、技术创新与银行监管有效性下降

IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 1981-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.1540-6261.1981.TB00449.X

E. Kane

{"title":"Accelerating Inflation, Technological Innovation, and the Decreasing Effectiveness of Banking Regulation","authors":"E. Kane","doi":"10.1111/J.1540-6261.1981.TB00449.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1540-6261.1981.TB00449.X","url":null,"abstract":"To explain the evolution of U.S. deposit institutions and markets in the 1960sand 1970s, we feed into the regulatory dialectic assumptions about the objectives of federal banking regulation and about outside forces that disturb the adjustment process. The disturbing exogenous forces are accelerating change in the technological and market environment of commercial banking and increasing uncertainty concerning the future speed of enviromental change. We hypothesize that, in the face of these environmental changes, the adaptive efficiency shown on average by deposit-institution managers is greater than that shown by managers of the several competing banking agencies. Incorporating this differential adaptive capacity into the regulatory dialectic helps us to understand how increases in the pace of environmental change and in the degree of environmental uncertainty led regulatee responses to come more quickly and regulatory responses to come more slowly. The bottom line is that, when the environment changes rapidly and becomes more uncertain, traditional forms of U.S. banking regulation can be overwhelmed by technological and regulation-induced innovation.","PeriodicalId":287196,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1981-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124622194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 286