{"title":"42. Konstanzer Seminar zur Geldtheorie und Geldpolitik 2011","authors":"M. Evers","doi":"10.3790/KUK.45.2.267","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/KUK.45.2.267","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":280048,"journal":{"name":"Kredit Und Kapital","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128018693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Vorschlag eines Bewertungskonzepts von Zertifikaten","authors":"Armin Varmaz, C. Fieberg","doi":"10.3790/KUK.45.2.243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/KUK.45.2.243","url":null,"abstract":"The literature has paid limited attention to approaches to analytical certificate valuation. This article proposes a concept, which roots in the Black/Scholes model, in order to analytically value the certificates. The implementation of the proposed concept requires the knowledge of the components of the certificates. Based on a classification of certificates in uniformly constructed classes, we identify the components. Based on formulas for barrier options proposed by Haug (2007) we develop an analytical approach to value virtually all existing certificates. Valuation errors which may occur due to non-observation of the volatility surface or due to market imperfections are analyzed in case studies.","PeriodicalId":280048,"journal":{"name":"Kredit Und Kapital","volume":"197 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133751483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Risk Measurement with a Safety Belt: Pareto Meets Chebyshev","authors":"Karl-Heinz Tödter","doi":"10.3790/KUK.45.2.175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/KUK.45.2.175","url":null,"abstract":"Risk measures based on the Gaussian distribution are prone to understate the probability of extreme events. To capture fat tails and extreme events, we combine the Pareto law with finite variance bounds of Chebyshev. This density encompasses the tail behaviour of a wide range of random variables with unknown distribution. It provides a well-defined conservative measure of risks. Applications to measurement of forecast uncertainty and to value at risk and expected shortfall illustrate the approach empirically.","PeriodicalId":280048,"journal":{"name":"Kredit Und Kapital","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124669234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christian Pierdzioch, Jan-Christoph Rülke, Georg Stadtmann
{"title":"Prognosen von Metallpreisen: Asymmetrische Verlustfunktionen und Rationalität","authors":"Christian Pierdzioch, Jan-Christoph Rülke, Georg Stadtmann","doi":"10.3790/KUK.45.3.407","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/KUK.45.3.407","url":null,"abstract":"Metals are important industrial raw and basic materials. Owing to the extremely strong fluctuations of metal prices, forecasts of future price developments are often in the focus of reporting by the media. This article analyses forecasts of six different metal prices, where the discussion focuses in particular on the form of forecasters’ loss function and the rationality of forecasts. The micro data we have used show a marked heterogeneity with respect to both aspects both across the analysed metal prices and across the forecasters for some of the metals studied.","PeriodicalId":280048,"journal":{"name":"Kredit Und Kapital","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128998196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Internet Bondholder Relations: Explaining Differences in Transparency among German Issuers of Corporate Bonds","authors":"Heinrich Degenhart, Steve Janner","doi":"10.3790/KUK.45.3.313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/KUK.45.3.313","url":null,"abstract":"Bondholder relations gains importance for German non-financial firms as the debt market environment is changing significantly. Beyond an unprecedented increase in the amount of outstanding securities, there are two other effects that we observe in the German market for corporate bonds: an increasing focus on retail investors and a growing number of small to medium-sized firms entering the market. Both developments underline the need to explore bondholder relations, its implementation and effectiveness. In the course of this study, we intend to promote the understanding of why some firms disclose more to their bondholders than others. Following the information, agency, and related frameworks, we assume that Internet financial reporting helps reduce information asymmetries between bond issuers and dispersed investors. We devote this study to identifying main factors that determine cross-sectional heterogeneity. Conducting a multivariate analysis, we test hypotheses on the influence of capital market orientation, investors’ informational needs, firm complexity, default risk, and family ownership. We find that all constructs, except for the default risk, are at least partly relevant in explaining the extent of information that bond issuers disclose on their websites.","PeriodicalId":280048,"journal":{"name":"Kredit Und Kapital","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121746794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster's Perspective","authors":"K. Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele","doi":"10.3790/KUK.45.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/KUK.45.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the recession in 2008/2009 in Germany, which is very different from previous recessions, in particular regarding its cause and magnitude. We show to what extent forecasters and forecasts based on leading indicators fail to detect the timing and the magnitude of the recession. This study shows that large forecast errors for both expert forecasts and forecasts based on leading indicators resulted during this recession which implies that the recession was very difficult to forecast. However, some leading indicators (survey data, risk spreads, stock prices) have indicated an economic downturn and hence, beat univariate time series models. Although the combination of individual forecasts provides an improvement compared to the benchmark model, the combined forecasts are worse than several individual models. A comparison of expert forecasts with the best forecasts based on leading indicators shows only minor deviations. Overall, the range for an improvement of expert forecasts during the crisis compared to indicator forecasts is relatively small.","PeriodicalId":280048,"journal":{"name":"Kredit Und Kapital","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126085773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Internationale Finanzforschung in Krisenzeiten – Eine Untersuchung auf Basis der Jahrestagung 2011 der European Finance Association in Stockholm, Schweden","authors":"C. Breuer, W. Breuer","doi":"10.3790/KUK.45.1.115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/KUK.45.1.115","url":null,"abstract":"Vom 17. bis 20. August 2011 fand die 38. Jahrestagung der European Finance Association (EFA) in Stockholm, Schweden, statt. Die Tagung unter der Leitung von Ingrid M. Werner wurde bereits zum zweiten Mal (nach zum ersten Mal 1989) in Stockholm durchgefuhrt. Zur Tagung wurden ca. 1.600 Aufsatze eingereicht, von denen nach einem doppelt verdeckten Begutachtungsverfahren 201 Aufsatze zur Prasentation ausgewahlt wurden. Auf diese Basis beziehen sich alle folgenden Auswertungen. Als Keynote Speaker konnte John Campbell von der Harvard University zum Thema „Mortgage Market Design“ gewonnen werden.","PeriodicalId":280048,"journal":{"name":"Kredit Und Kapital","volume":"262 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121215731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimale Darlehensbündel in der privaten Immobilienfinanzierung bei steigender Zinsstrukturkurve","authors":"Frank Schuhmacher","doi":"10.3790/KUK.45.2.219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/KUK.45.2.219","url":null,"abstract":"This contribution analyzes an optimization potential in the private real estate financing, which is not covered in both the scientific and practical literature, but which is well known to practically orientated scientists. First, it is shown that for a rising yield curve a bundle of annuity loans with different fixed interest periods is optimal. Second, the optimal bundle is characterized. Third, it is shown that the added value of the optimal bundle is on average over the last 15 years about 1%.","PeriodicalId":280048,"journal":{"name":"Kredit Und Kapital","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126663545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mehrperiodenausfallprognose eines Bankportfolios aus deutschen mittelständischen Unternehmen","authors":"M. Wolter, D. Rösch","doi":"10.3790/KUK.45.2.189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/KUK.45.2.189","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyses a comprehensive set of data including annual financial statements and default probability information relating to German small and medium- sized enterprises. This data set, which must be deemed typical of a businesscustomer credit portfolio of a large bank, is used as basis for developing an enterprise- specific default probability forecasting model. This model permits to identify significant company-specific and macroeconomic risk drivers and to forecast default probability risks over a multi-annual horizon. On the basis of the time-specific modes of behaviour of the default probabilities so ascertained, multi-period portfolio loss distributions have been estimated for bank-specific credit portfolios. The analyses are based on a data set relating to 5,930 German small and mediumsized enterprises. For these enterprises, a total of over 23,000 annual financial statements relating to the period 2002/2007 have been analysed. The results may be used as a basis on which to develop action strategies allowing credit portfolio losses to be more realistically estimated for several periods.","PeriodicalId":280048,"journal":{"name":"Kredit Und Kapital","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130124748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reformen der nationalen und internationalen Finanzarchitektur","authors":"H. Rehm","doi":"10.3790/KUK.44.3.317","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3790/KUK.44.3.317","url":null,"abstract":"Summary/Zusammenfassung Reformen der nationalen und internationalen Finanzarchitektur Der Ausgangspunkt der Uberlegungen ist die Frage nach den ordnungspolitischen Anforderungen an eine Finanzarchitektur, die dem Wandel der Markte und dem geanderten Verhalten der Akteure Rechnung tragt. Im Mittelpunkt der Analyse stehen die Ansatzpunkte einer makroprudentiellen Bankenaufsicht zur Fruherkennung von systemischen Risiken und die Wurdigung jener Instrumente, mit denen diesen begegnet werden kann. In diesem Zusammenhang werden die Konzepte zur Erhohung der Risikotragfahigkeit, der Einschrankung von Refinanzierungsrisiken sowie die Moglichkeiten zur Vermeidung von Regulierungsarbitrage in „Schattenbanksystemen“ erortert. Schlieslich werden die grundsatzlichen Konzepte vorgestellt, mit denen die Bankordnungspolitik in ihrer Verantwortung fur die Funktionsfahigkeit eines Bankensystems nicht einer dauerhaften Erpressbarkeit durch die Bankwirtschaft ausgeliefert ist, sondern im Falle einer bestands-und systemgefahr...","PeriodicalId":280048,"journal":{"name":"Kredit Und Kapital","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126997196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}