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Do Homelessness Prevention Programs Prevent Homelessness? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial 无家可归预防项目能预防无家可归吗?来自随机对照试验的证据
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01344
David C. Phillips, James X. Sullivan
{"title":"Do Homelessness Prevention Programs Prevent Homelessness? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial","authors":"David C. Phillips, James X. Sullivan","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01344","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper provides the first evidence from a randomized controlled trial isolating the impact of financial assistance to prevent homelessness. In this study individuals and families at imminent risk of homelessness were offered temporary financial assistance, averaging nearly $2,000 for those assigned to treatment. Our results show that this assistance significantly reduces homelessness by 3.8 percentage points from a base rate of 4.1 percent. The effects are larger for people with a history of homelessness and no children. Despite concerns about cost-effectiveness due to difficulty targeting, our estimates suggest that the benefits to homelessness prevention exceed costs.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135792135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
One-Child Policy, Marriage Distortion, and Welfare Loss 独生子女政策、婚姻扭曲与福利损失
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01332
Wei Huang, Yi Zhou
{"title":"One-Child Policy, Marriage Distortion, and Welfare Loss","authors":"Wei Huang, Yi Zhou","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01332","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We investigate how exposure to the One-Child Policy (OCP) during early adulthood affects marriage and fertility in China. Exploring fertility penalties across provinces over time and the different implementations by ethnicity, we show that the OCP significantly increases the unmarried rate among the Han ethnicity but not among the minorities. The OCP increases Han-minority marriages in regions where Han-minority couples are allowed for an additional child, but the impact is smaller in other regions. Finally, the deadweight loss caused by lower fertility accounts for 10 percent of annual household incomes, and policy-induced fewer marriages contribute to 30 percent of the fertility decline.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135693406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
How Important Is Editorial Gatekeeping? Evidence from Top Biomedical Journals 编辑把关有多重要?来自顶级生物医学期刊的证据
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01340
Joshua L. Krieger, Kyle R. Myers, Ariel D. Stern
{"title":"How Important Is Editorial Gatekeeping? Evidence from Top Biomedical Journals","authors":"Joshua L. Krieger, Kyle R. Myers, Ariel D. Stern","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01340","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We examine editors' influence on the scientific content of academic journals by unpacking the role of three major forces: journals' stated missions, the aggregate supply of and demand for specific topics, and scientific homophily via editorial gatekeeping. In a sample of top biomedical journals, we find the first two forces explain the vast majority of variation in published content. The upper bound of the homophily effect is statistically significant but practically much less important. Marginal changes to the composition of editorial boards do not meaningfully impact journals' content in the short run. However, we cannot rule out persistent or pervasive frictions in the publication process.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135792136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does a Spoonful of Sugar Levy Help the Calories Go Down? An Analysis of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy 一勺糖税能帮助降低卡路里吗?英国软饮料行业征税分析
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01345
Alex Dickson, Markus Gehrsitz, Jonathan Kemp
{"title":"Does a Spoonful of Sugar Levy Help the Calories Go Down? An Analysis of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy","authors":"Alex Dickson, Markus Gehrsitz, Jonathan Kemp","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01345","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study evaluates the effects of the 2018 UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy. We combine novel electronic point of sale data with longitudinal nutritional information and a variety of event-study specifications. All but a few global soft drinks brands reduced sugar content and hence avoided the tiered levy. For brands that maintained their recipes, the levy was on average over-shifted resulting in substantial retail price increases and reductions in consumption, particularly for colas. The levy is responsible for a reduction in intake of about 6,600 calories per year per UK resident, 80% of which is attributable to reformulation by manufacturers.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135740870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is Mobile Money Changing Rural Africa? Evidence from a Field Experiment 移动支付正在改变非洲农村吗?现场实验的证据
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01333
Cátia Batista, Pedro C. Vicente
{"title":"Is Mobile Money Changing Rural Africa? Evidence from a Field Experiment","authors":"Cátia Batista, Pedro C. Vicente","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01333","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Rural areas in Sub-Saharan Africa are typically underserved by financial services. Mobile money brings a substantial reduction in the transaction costs of remittances. We follow the introduction of mobile money for the first time in rural villages of Mozambique using a randomized field experiment. We find that mobile money increased migration out of these villages, where we observe lower agricultural activity and investment. At the same time, remittances received and welfare of rural households increased, particularly when facing geo-referenced village-level floods and household-level idiosyncratic shocks. Our work suggests that mobile money can accelerate urbanization and structural change in Sub-Saharan Africa.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135792137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate 寻找实际汇率的主要驱动因素
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01342
Wataru Miyamoto, Thuy Lan Nguyen, Hyunseung Oh
{"title":"In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate","authors":"Wataru Miyamoto, Thuy Lan Nguyen, Hyunseung Oh","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01342","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We uncover the major drivers of macro aggregates and the real exchange rate at business cycle frequencies in Group of Seven countries. The estimated drivers of key macro variables resemble each other and account for a modest fraction of the real exchange rate variances. Dominant drivers of the real exchange rate are orthogonal to main drivers of business cycles, generate a significant deviation of the uncovered interest parity condition, and lead to small movements in net exports. We use these facts to evaluate international business cycle models accounting for the dynamics of both macro aggregates and the real exchange rate.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135792138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Imperfect Exchange Rate Expectations 不完善的汇率预期
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01343
Giacomo Candian, Pierre De Leo
{"title":"Imperfect Exchange Rate Expectations","authors":"Giacomo Candian, Pierre De Leo","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01343","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using survey data, we document that predictable exchange rate forecast errors are responsible for the uncovered-interest-parity (UIP) puzzle and its reversal at longer horizons. We develop a general-equilibrium model based on shock misperception and over-extrapolative beliefs that reconciles these and other major exchange rate puzzles. These beliefs distortions generate both under- and over-reaction of expectations that account for the predictability of forecast errors about interest rates, exchange rates, and other macroeconomic indicators. In the model, forecast errors are endogenous to monetary policy and explain the change in the behavior of UIP deviations that emerged after the global financial crisis.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135792134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Dynamic Ordered Logit Model with Fixed Effects 具有固定效应的动态有序Logit模型
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01336
Chris Muris, Pedro Raposo, Sotiris Vandoros
{"title":"A Dynamic Ordered Logit Model with Fixed Effects","authors":"Chris Muris, Pedro Raposo, Sotiris Vandoros","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01336","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study a fixed-T panel data logit model for ordered outcomes that accommodates fixed effects and state dependence. We provide identification results for the autoregressive parameter, regression coefficients, and the threshold parameters in this model. Our results require only four observations on the outcome variable. We provide conditions under which a composite conditional maximum likelihood estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We use our estimator to explore the determinants of self-reported health in a panel of European countries over the period 2003–2016 and find evidence for state dependence in self-reported health.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135693407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Partisan Bias, Economic Expectations, and Household Spending 党派偏见、经济预期和家庭支出
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01056
Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, Nasim Khoshkhou
{"title":"Partisan Bias, Economic Expectations, and Household Spending","authors":"Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, Nasim Khoshkhou","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01056","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The well-documented rise in political polarization among the U.S. electorate over the past 20 years has been accompanied by a substantial increase in the effect of partisan bias on survey-based measures of economic expectations. Individuals have a more optimistic view on future economic conditions when they are more closely affiliated with the party that controls the White House, and this tendency has increased significantly over time. Individuals report a large shift in economic expectations based on partisan affiliation after the 2008 and 2016 elections, but administrative data on spending shows no effect of these shifts on actual household spending.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135270516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Flight from Urban Blight: Lead Poisoning, Crime, and Suburbanization 逃离城市衰败:铅中毒、犯罪和郊区化
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-12 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01323
Federico Curci, Federico Masera
{"title":"Flight from Urban Blight: Lead Poisoning, Crime, and Suburbanization","authors":"Federico Curci, Federico Masera","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01323","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01323","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper we study the effect of violent crime on residential and firms location decisions and their implications for segregation in cities. We do so by proposing a new instrument to exogenously predict violent crime in city centers. We base our instrument on chemical and medical evidence that links local characteristics of the soil to lead poisoning and aggression. We show that the increase in violent crime between 1960 and 1990 due to lead poisoning moved almost 8 million people to the suburbs. Firms followed by leaving the city centers. We then show that the suburbanization process was characterized by “white flight”.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135239054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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