PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic)最新文献

EMU Deepening and Sovereign Debt Spreads: Using Political Space to Achieve Policy Space 欧洲货币联盟深化与主权债务息差:利用政治空间实现政策空间

PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-01-19 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3769347

Iván Kataryniuk, Víctor Mora-Bajén, Javier J. Pérez

{"title":"EMU Deepening and Sovereign Debt Spreads: Using Political Space to Achieve Policy Space","authors":"Iván Kataryniuk, Víctor Mora-Bajén, Javier J. Pérez","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3769347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3769347","url":null,"abstract":"Sovereign spreads within the European Monetary Union (EMU) arise because markets price-in heterogeneous country fundamentals, but also re-denomination risks, given the incomplete nature of EMU. This creates a permanent risk of financial fragmentation within the area. In this paper we claim that political decisions that signal commitment to safeguarding the adequate functioning of the euro area influence investors’ valuations. We focus on decisions conducive to enhancing the institutional framework of the euro area (“EMU deepening”). To test our hypothesis we build a comprehensive narrative of events (decisions) from all documents and press releases issued by the Council of the EU and the European Council during the period January 2010 to March 2020. We categorize the events as dealing with: (i) economic and financial integration; (ii) fiscal policy; (iii) bailouts. With our extremely rich narrative at hand, we conduct event-study regressions with daily data to assess the impact of events on sovereign bond yields and find that indeed decisions on financial integration drive down periphery spreads. Moreover, while decisions on key subjects present a robust effect, this is not the case with prior discussions on those subjects at the Council level. Finally, we show that the impacts arise from reductions in peripheral sovereign spreads, and not by the opposite movement in core countries. We conclude that EU policy-makers have at their disposal significant “political space” to reduce fragmentation and gain “policy space”.","PeriodicalId":269683,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124475738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 52

Monetary Policy, De-Anchoring of Inflation Expectations, and the 'New Normal' 货币政策、通胀预期去锚化与“新常态”

PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-01-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3095889

Lucio Gobbi, Ronny Mazzocchi, R. Tamborini

{"title":"Monetary Policy, De-Anchoring of Inflation Expectations, and the 'New Normal'","authors":"Lucio Gobbi, Ronny Mazzocchi, R. Tamborini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3095889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3095889","url":null,"abstract":"Low inflation rates in the Euro Area raise the question of whether inflation is still credibly anchored to the Euro-system’s medium term target of below, but close to 2%. The purpose of this paper is twofold. On the one hand, we investigate why agents’ inflation expectations that inflation will remain in line with the target begin to falter. On the other hand, we want to study how the de-anchoring of expectations interacts with monetary policy determining whether the central bank is still able to achieve its target - and hence re-anchor inflation expectations - or whether the system drifts away towards the liquidity trap. Two are our main findings. The first is that large unfavourable shocks might lead agents to question their trust in resilience of the system, and to revise their expectations. If inflation expectations fall faster than the policy rate, and the zero lower bound is reached without correcting the interest-rate gap, the system converges to a new steady state - the “new normal” - with permanent negative gaps. The second is that a more aggressive monetary policy is ineffective both at the ZLB and above the ZLB, when the shock is large shocks and/or when the reactivity of inflation expectations is high enough. This last finding seems to support the necessity, in those conditions, to abandon conventional monetary policy and to switch to an aggressive reflationary policy that prevents the entrenchment of deflationary expectations.","PeriodicalId":269683,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128630882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Currency Unions and Heterogeneous Trade Effects: The Case of the Latin Monetary Union 货币联盟与异质性贸易效应:以拉丁货币联盟为例

PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-11-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3075149

Jacopo Timini

{"title":"Currency Unions and Heterogeneous Trade Effects: The Case of the Latin Monetary Union","authors":"Jacopo Timini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3075149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3075149","url":null,"abstract":"El acuerdo de la Union Monetaria Latina (UML), firmado en diciembre de 1865 por Francia, Italia, Belgica y Suiza, estandarizo la acunacion de monedas de oro y plata en los paises miembros y permitio la libre circulacion de las monedas nacionales en la Union. En un influyente estudio, Flandreau (2000) no encontro evidencia de un efecto positivo general de la UML sobre el comercio. En este trabajo se estiman los efectos de este acuerdo monetario sobre el comercio utilizando un modelo de gravedad, que tiene en cuenta, de forma explicita, las condiciones cambiantes en el entorno internacional que afectaron a los fundamentos economicos subyacentes a la UML (es decir, los limites a la acunacion de las monedas de plata en 1874) y sus disposiciones (es decir, la «clausula de liquidacion» de 1885). En este marco, el estudio prueba la existencia de efectos heterogeneos sobre el comercio bilateral dentro de la UML. En linea con Flandreau, no se encuentra un efecto significativo de la UML sobre el comercio. Sin embargo, la evidencia presentada apoya la hipotesis de que la UML tuvo efectos significativos sobre el comercio en el periodo 1865-1874. Estos efectos, no obstante, se concentraron en los flujos comerciales entre Francia y el resto de los miembros de la UML, siguiendo una estructura hub-and-spokes. Ademas, se encuentra evidencia de la existencia de una ruptura estructural a nivel de UML en 1874, que afecto a la evolucion de los flujos comerciales dentro de la Union.","PeriodicalId":269683,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"159 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132871607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 57

Monetary Policy Under Financial Dollarization: The Case of Eurasian Economic Union 金融美元化下的货币政策:以欧亚经济联盟为例

PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-06-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2993374

Z. Ybrayev

{"title":"Monetary Policy Under Financial Dollarization: The Case of Eurasian Economic Union","authors":"Z. Ybrayev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2993374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2993374","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the general improvement in controlling price levels over the last two decades, a substantial number of the population in emerging market economies still save and borrow in foreign-denominated currencies. There are reasons to believe, however, that a high degree of financial dollarization presents obstacles in the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy and to the overall functioning of the financial sector. In the case of a typical developing economy â€“ where external debts are denominated in foreign currency and domestic firms rely heavily on receipts in national currency â€“ these difficulties are magnified. Financial dollarization in developing economies potentially leads to higher vulnerability of the domestic banking sector because of currency mismatch issues and large fluctuations in exchange rates, prompting the need for inflation-targeting monetary policy. This chapter investigates features of a high level of financial dollarization and the challenges it presents to inflation-targeting monetary policy in the Eurasian Economic Union. Based on a regression analysis, the chapter finds evidence that that the high level of financial dollarization in these countries tends to increase upward inflationary pressures at least in the short run, change the composition of total savings away from domestic currencies toward foreign ones, which potentially increases financial fragility in the banking sector. Thus, persistent high levels of financial dollarization imply that monetary policy is significantly limited through a greater exposure of banking sector to currency mismatches issues, which further increases demand for foreign assets.","PeriodicalId":269683,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"24 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131864219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Euro Trade Imbalances and Growth Differentials: A Minsky-Kaleckian Approach 欧元贸易失衡与增长差异:明斯基-卡列基方法

PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-10-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2670526

Giovanni Covi

引用次数: 0

The Roles of Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Councils and Fiscal Union in EU Integration 财政规则、财政理事会和财政联盟在欧盟一体化中的作用

PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-08-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2642723

Lars Calmfors

引用次数: 16

The Propensity to Exports and the Membership in the Economic and Monetary Union of Central and Eastern European Countries: The Micro-Econometric Firm Level Analysis 出口倾向与中东欧国家经济货币联盟成员关系:微观计量企业层面分析

PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-03-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2408445

A. Cieślik, J. Michałek

{"title":"The Propensity to Exports and the Membership in the Economic and Monetary Union of Central and Eastern European Countries: The Micro-Econometric Firm Level Analysis","authors":"A. Cieślik, J. Michałek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2408445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2408445","url":null,"abstract":"There are many studies aiming at estimation of aggregate trade effects of the euro adoption by the old EU countries, which are based on the gravity model. In contrast to the existing literature we investigate whether the adoption of the common currency increases the export activity of individual firms. In particular, we refer to the new strand in the trade theory, based on the Melitz (2003) model, in which propensity to export depends on productivity and costs of exporting. There are many empirical studies, based on firm level data, showing the relevance of the Melitz (2003) model. Most of those studies demonstrate that export performance positively depends on firms’ characteristics, but they do not take into account the impact of the common currency on the cost of exporting. There are only few studies analyzing implications of euro adoption for firms’ exports of “old EU” members. In our empirical paper we use the firm level data basis set up by the EBRD and the World Bank. Using the probit model we analyze whether the accession of Slovenia and Slovakia to the Eurozone did increase the firms’ propensity to export in those countries.","PeriodicalId":269683,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"94 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133097376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Falling Short of Expectations? Stress-Testing the European Banking System 达不到预期?欧洲银行系统压力测试

PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2370484

V. Acharya, Sascha Steffen

引用次数: 76

Welfare Reversals in a Monetary Union 货币联盟的福利逆转

PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2376158

S. Auray, A. Eyquem

引用次数: 22

West African Single Currency and Competitiveness 西非单一货币与竞争力

PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-11-01 DOI: 10.1111/rode.12064

G. Dufrénot, Kimiko Sugimoto

引用次数: 11