ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic)最新文献_第4页

Monetary Policy Transmission Over the Leverage Cycle: Evidence for the Euro Area 杠杆周期中的货币政策传导:欧元区的证据

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3627030

Gerhard Rünstler, Leonie Bräuer

引用次数: 1

How Much Does Aggregate Demand Travel Across the Atlantic? 总需求跨越大西洋的量是多少?

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3636064

Ine Van Robays, Livio Stracca

引用次数: 0

Monetary Policy and Intangible Investment 货币政策与无形投资

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-05-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3612304

Robin Döttling, Lev Ratnovski

引用次数: 17

Effects of State-Dependent Forward Guidance, Large-Scale Asset Purchases and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low-Interest-Rate Environment 低利率环境下国家前瞻性指引、大规模资产购买和财政刺激的影响

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3522191

G. Coenen, Carlos Montes-Galdón, F. Smets

{"title":"Effects of State-Dependent Forward Guidance, Large-Scale Asset Purchases and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low-Interest-Rate Environment","authors":"G. Coenen, Carlos Montes-Galdón, F. Smets","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3522191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3522191","url":null,"abstract":"We study the incidence and severity of lower-bound episodes and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies—forward guidance about the future path of interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending-based fiscal stimulus—in ameliorating the adverse consequences stemming from the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. In particular, we focus on the euro area economy and examine, using the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model, the consequences of the lower bound both for the near-term economic outlook, characterised by persistently low nominal interest rates and inflation, and in a lasting low-real-interest-rate world. Our findings suggest that, if unaddressed, the lower bound can have very substantial costs in terms of worsened macroeconomic performance. Forward guidance, if fully credible, is most powerful and can largely undo the distortionary effects due to the lower bound. A combination of imperfectly credible forward guidance, asset purchases and fiscal stimulus is almost equally effective, in particular when asset purchases enhance the credibility of the forward guidance policy via a signalling effect. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E37, E52, E62","PeriodicalId":269524,"journal":{"name":"ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123342484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 18

Estimating the Optimal Inflation Target from Trends in Relative Prices 从相对价格趋势估计最优通胀目标

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3530927

Klaus Adam, H. Weber

引用次数: 11

Strategic Interactions and Price Dynamics in the Global Oil Market 全球石油市场的战略互动与价格动态

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3547928

Virginia Di Nino, Irma Alonso Álvarez, F. Venditti

{"title":"Strategic Interactions and Price Dynamics in the Global Oil Market","authors":"Virginia Di Nino, Irma Alonso Álvarez, F. Venditti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3547928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3547928","url":null,"abstract":"In a simplified theoretical framework we model the strategic interactions between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and the implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on the residual demand curve, to move supply in-tandem with non-OPEC, or to offset changes in non-OPEC supply. We evaluate the implications of the model through a Structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) that separates non-OPEC and OPEC production and allows OPEC to respond to supply increases in non-OPEC countries. This is done by either increasing production (Market Share Targeting) or by reducing it (Price Targeting). We find that Price Targeting shocks absorb half of the fluctuations in oil prices, which have left unexplained by a simpler model (where strategic interactions are not taken into account). Price Targeting shocks, ignored by previous studies, explain around 10 percent of oil price fluctuations and are particularly relevant in the commodity price boom of the 2000s. We confirm that the fall in oil prices at the end of 2014 was triggered by an attempt of OPEC to re-gain market shares. We also find the OPEC elasticity of supply three times as high as that of non-OPEC producers. JEL Classification: Q41, Q43","PeriodicalId":269524,"journal":{"name":"ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130339246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 62

Rising Protectionism and Global Value Chains: Quantifying the General Equilibrium Effects 保护主义抬头与全球价值链:量化一般均衡效应

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3612910

Rita Cappariello, Sebastian Franco-Bedoya, Vanessa Gunnella, G. Ottaviano

{"title":"Rising Protectionism and Global Value Chains: Quantifying the General Equilibrium Effects","authors":"Rita Cappariello, Sebastian Franco-Bedoya, Vanessa Gunnella, G. Ottaviano","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3612910","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3612910","url":null,"abstract":"Quantifying the effects of trade policy in the age of 'global value chains' (GVCs) requires an enhanced analytical framework that takes the observed international input-output relations in due account. However, existing quantitative general equilibrium models generally assume that industry-level bilateral final and intermediate trade shares are identical, and that the allocation of imported inputs across sectors is the same as the allocation of domestic inputs. This amounts to applying two proportionality assumptions, one at the border to split final goods and inputs, and another behind the border to allocate inputs across industries. In practice, neither assumption holds in available input-output data sets. To overcome this limitation of existing models, we consider a richer input-output structure across countries and sectors that we can match with the actual structure reported in input-output tables. This allows us to investigate the relation between the effects of changes in trade policies and GVCs. When we apply the enhanced quantitative general equilibrium model to the assessment of the effects of Brexit, we find trade and welfare losses that are substantially larger than those obtained by previous models. This is due to the close integration of UK-EU production networks and implies that denser GVCs amplify the adverse effects of protectionist trade policies.","PeriodicalId":269524,"journal":{"name":"ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129145469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 31

Tiered CBDC and the Financial System 分层CBDC和金融体系

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2866/134524

U. Bindseil

引用次数: 136

Firms’ Expectations on the Availability of Credit Since the Financial Crisis 金融危机以来企业对信贷可得性的预期

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3515395

Annalisa Ferrando, I. Ganoulis, Carsten Preuss

{"title":"Firms’ Expectations on the Availability of Credit Since the Financial Crisis","authors":"Annalisa Ferrando, I. Ganoulis, Carsten Preuss","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3515395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3515395","url":null,"abstract":"Using a large set of firm-level survey data from the euro area since 2009, we analyse how firms use their information to form expectations on the availability of bank finance. Our results suggest that firms update what otherwise look like adaptive expectations on the basis of the latest information in their information set. As in the previous literature, the hypothesis that expectations fulfil the (orthogonality) conditions of the rational expectations hypothesis is rejected by the data. We find evidence that this is not only due to information imperfections but also to some type of misspecification of the expectations’ model that firms are using. In addition, we find some evidence that companies that have not used bank finance recently tend to do worse at forecasting its availability next period. To test how policy announcements may affect expectations, we concentrate on the possible effects of the ECB policy announcements of summer 2012, which included among other things the announcement of the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions Program (OMT). Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence of forward-looking expectations. In particular, shortly after the OMT announcement the forecast of “informed” firms were more upbeat compared to the control group of firms. This moreover was true in both vulnerable and non-vulnerable countries, suggesting that it was the relevance of the information about the future of the banking system that most mattered for expectations at the time, more than the immediate impact of the announced policy measures. JEL Classification: C83, D22, D84","PeriodicalId":269524,"journal":{"name":"ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128396994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Inflation Trends in Asia: Implications for Central Banks 亚洲通胀趋势:对央行的启示

ECB: Working Paper Series (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/oep/gpab050

Juan A. Garcia, Aubrey Poon

引用次数: 4