Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Sovereign External Assets and the Resilience of Global Imbalances","authors":"Enrique Alberola, José María Serena","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1338064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1338064","url":null,"abstract":"Sovereign external assets (SEAs) comprise foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). The global stock of reserves reached 7 $trn in the second quarter of 2008, but data on SWF are rather elusive. Our estimation puts the SWFs at around 2,5 $trn dollars by 2007 and in the last years they have grown at a high pace, fostered by high commodity prices. Therefore, SEAs have surpassed the 10 $trn mark (around 5% of global assets and 15% of global GDP). This paper argues that reserves and SWF assets should be jointly considered for the assessment of global imbalances. Both are official capital outflows from developing to developed countries, both hinder internal adjustment in current account surplus countries, both help to cover the financing needs of deficit countries, in particular in the US, and, therefore, both contribute to sustain global imbalances. The importance of SEAs in financing the external imbalances of the US has been widely recognised but scantly measured. Our rule-of-thumb calculations suggests that they have greatly increased their importance in the last years, having surpassed the US$ trillion increase in 2007; relative to US financing needs, this amount represents around a 135% and 50% of net and gross needs, respectively, in 2007. Reserves have in the last years contributed 80% and SWFs 20%.Looking ahead, two main conclusions can be put forward: 1) the relative importance SWFs in the financing of the US deficits and global imbalances is set to increase (also relative to reserves), but this is conditional to commodity prices remaining at high levels. On the one hand, the economic motivation of SWFs -intertemporal smoothing- is more palatable than that of reserves (exchange rate management), despite political concerns on SWFs; on the other hand, SWFs do not have significant internal costs, contrary to reserves, whose monetary and fiscal costs are increasing in the margin; 2) SEAs can well buttress US financial needs in the years ahead, providing resilience to the global imbalances. Dramatic shifts in the pace of SEAs accumulation -due for instance to an adjustment of commodity prices- or in the investment allocation would jeopardise these prospects.","PeriodicalId":265524,"journal":{"name":"Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130592983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shock and Awe: Institutional Change, Neoliberalism, and Disaster Capitalism","authors":"Art Carden","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1302446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1302446","url":null,"abstract":"This essay examines some of the key claims made in Naomi Klein's \"The Shock Doctrine.\"","PeriodicalId":265524,"journal":{"name":"Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133829632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emergency Messaging to General Public Via Public Wireless Networks","authors":"L. Pau, P. Simonsen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1432875","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1432875","url":null,"abstract":"Warnings to the broad population in an emergency situation, irrespective of location and condition, is a public policy responsibility. Public wireless networks offer now the opportunity to deliver emergency warnings in this way with explanations, because in many countries the mobile penetration rates and coverage are higher than any other access form. The paper summarizes the analysis of the selection process between Short messaging services (SMS) and Cell Broadcast (CB) messaging in the context of Denmark based on end user requirements, stakeholder roles and case-based analysis. It demonstrates the many technical, cost-benefit and other trade-offs needed in supporting the population now with a dependable and wide-spread technology. This research is the basis for a national policy","PeriodicalId":265524,"journal":{"name":"Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133302057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Structural Policies and Economic Resilience to Shocks","authors":"R. Duval, J. Elmeskov, L. Vogel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1002508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1002508","url":null,"abstract":"Cyclical fluctuations in economic activity have moderated over time but the extent and dynamics of volatility remain different across OECD countries. A reason behind this heterogeneity is that countries exhibit different degrees of resilience in the face of common shocks. This paper traces divergences in resilience back to different policy settings and institutions in labour, product and financial markets. Using pooled regression analysis across 20 OECD countries over the period 1982-2003, the paper identifies the impact of policy settings on two dimensions of resilience: the impact effect of a shock and its subsequent persistence. Policies and institutions associated with rigidities in labour and product markets are found to dampen the initial impact of shocks but to make their effects more persistent, while policies allowing for deep mortgage markets lower persistence and thereby improve resilience. Combining these two dimensions of resilience, the paper then uses the estimated equations to derive indicators of resilience for the OECD countries concerned, based on their current or recent policy settings. Three groups of countries emerge. In English-speaking countries, simulations suggest shocks have a significant initial effect on activity but this impact then dies out relatively quickly. By contrast, in many continental European countries the initial impact of shocks is cushioned but their effect linger for longer, with the cumulated output loss tending to be larger than in English-speaking countries. Finally a few, mostly small, European countries combine cushioning of the initial shock with a fairly quick return to baseline. Politiques structurelles et resilience economique aux chocs Bien que les fluctuations cycliques de l'activite se soient attenuees au cours des annees recentes, leur ampleur et leur evolution continuent de differer sensiblement entre pays de l'OCDE. L'une des explications a cette heterogeneite est que les pays affichent differents degres de resilience a des chocs communs. Cet article explore la contribution des politiques et des institutions sur les marches financiers, du travail et des biens et services a ces ecarts de resilience. A partir de regressions sur un panel de 20 pays de l'OCDE portant sur la periode 1982-2003, l'article identifie l' impact des politiques sur deux dimensions de la resilience : l'effet d'un choc a l'impact et sa persistance ulterieure. Il ressort que les politiques et les institutions entrainant des rigidites sur les marches du travail et des biens et services attenuent l'impact initial d'un choc mais rendent cet effet plus persistant, tandis que des politiques favorisant le developpement des marches hypothecaires reduisent la persistance et ainsi ameliorent la resilience. Combinant ces deux dimensions de la resilience, l'article utilise ensuite les equations estimees pour construire des indicateurs de resilience pour chacun des pays de l'OCDE concernes, sur la base de leurs politiques et de leu","PeriodicalId":265524,"journal":{"name":"Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125363926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}