ERN: Behavioral Economics (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Ellsberg's Hidden Paradox","authors":"Sean Crockett, Yehuda Izhakian, Julian C. Jamison","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3423534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3423534","url":null,"abstract":"Ellsberg (1961) proposes two alternative frames to elicit individuals' preferences for ambiguity. Through an experiment, we find that Ellsberg's three-color one-urn frame induces very different revealed preferences than the two-color two-urn frame. In both frames, we document ambiguity aversion for likely gains and (weak) ambiguity seeking for unlikely gains. The intensity of both these attitudes, however, is strongly curbed in the three-color frame. These findings may imply that perceived probabilities are biased toward uniformly distributed states and consequences, introducing a tension between them in the three-color frame. Surprisingly, we find that subjects who are simply asked to fill urns with colored bingo chips for a fixed payment also reveal a similar uniformity bias. We argue that both urn fillers and incentivized decision makers are influenced by similar perceptually salient features of probability intervals. Our findings have important implications for decision theory, and, by extension, for economic, financial, political, and medical decisions.","PeriodicalId":263662,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Behavioral Economics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128814810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Time-Inconsistent Generosity: Present Bias Across Individual and Social Contexts","authors":"Felix Kölle, L. Wenner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3218387","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3218387","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the presence and stability of dynamically inconsistent time preferences across contexts with and without interpersonal trade-offs. In a longitudinal experiment subjects make a series of intertemporal allocation decisions of real-effort tasks between themselves and another person. We find substantial time inconsistency in generosity: agents become disproportionally more selfish when decisions have immediate rather than delayed consequences. Structural estimations reveal that this is because agents exhibit present bias in own but not in others' consumption. At the individual level, present bias in own consumption is a stable behavioral trait which is correlated across individual and social contexts.","PeriodicalId":263662,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Behavioral Economics (Topic)","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130796942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Overconfidence Test in Cryptocurrencies Markets Using VAR Analysis","authors":"Hai Yen Tran","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3416394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3416394","url":null,"abstract":"The rapid technological development in finance in general, and in BTC in particular, has continued to gain traction worldwide since its emergence in the last decade. Initially, this growth was largely due to the work of tech enthusiasts; however, this changed in 2017, when BTC and various other CCs became main selling points in the financial world. Since the early peak of these electronic-cash developments in 2018, Google searches for ‘Bitcoin’ and ‘cryptocurrencies’ have continued to reach record highs. Most recently, on the 2nd of April, 2019, this trend in Google searches for cryptocurrencies, particularly ‘BTC, reached 90 percent of the peak observed on the 19th of November, 2018. \u0000 \u0000This market for cryptocurrencies (hereinafter referred to as ‘crypto-market’) has gained substantial attention from theorists and empirical researchers, but the inherent complexities in this phenomenon are yet to be fully explored. Motivated by overconfidence theory, in the current study, we question whether the recent degree of volatility and trading activity in cryptocurrency behaviour shares any overlap with the momentum of the Dot-Com bubble in the 1980s, where tech-based infrastructure gained power and became overconfident very quickly, yielding spurious share prices for these firms and their products. \u0000 \u0000Following this, it is expected that an identifiable pattern in price behaviour will emerge after correction to such significant growth (Caporale and Plastun, 2018). Moreover, it is worth noticing that the majority of crypto-participants are overwhelmingly male (Coindesk, 2018) and psychological research has established that, in the area of finance, men are more overconfident compared with women (Barber and Odean, 2001). \u0000 \u0000Despite studies on overconfidence originating in the field of psychology, such investigation has migrated into the literature on economics and finance. Particularly, overconfidence is considered as the key behavioural factors needed to understanding the trading puzzle (De Bondt and Thaler, 1995). Indeed, overconfidence theory had taken its place in the growing list of behavioural studies which were used to be on the fringes, but are now occupying mainstream research in relevant fields. Accordingly, although our analysis was initially motivated by the overconfidence hypothesis, the findings related to the dependence of trading volume and overconfidence are considered an essential empirical principle which should be duly acknowledged by both theorists and empirical researchers. \u0000 \u0000This thesis investigates the lead-lag relationship between the turnover and return of the crypto-market in general, and the three largest market cap coins (BTC, ETH and XRP) in particular. Alternatively stated, we attempt to support notions of the existence of overconfidence bias in this market. The study utilised the Vector Autoregression (VAR) technique, as well as the Granger-causality and Impulse Response Function (IRF) to produce the three key findings of thi","PeriodicalId":263662,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Behavioral Economics (Topic)","volume":"512 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116561148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Encouraging Women to Compete: Social Image and Prosocial Incentives","authors":"Masayuki Yagasaki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3416380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3416380","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we investigate how social image concerns affect women’s decisions to compete. We first propose a theoretical model to show that participating in a competition is costly for women from the social image viewpoint, since such behavior deviates from traditional female gender norms. This results in women’s lower standing in competitive environments, even under affirmative action policies favoring women, when decisions to compete are observed. We posit and theoretically demonstrate that introducing prosocial incentives in a competitive environment can effectively encourage women to compete even under public observability. Second, we conduct a laboratory experiment, randomly manipulate the public observability of decisions to compete, and test our theoretical predictions. The results of the experiment are fairly consistent with the theoretical predictions. We suggest that, when designing policies to promote gender equality in competitive environments, using prosocial incentives through company philanthropy or other social responsibility policies could be promising.","PeriodicalId":263662,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Behavioral Economics (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128779331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Moderating Effect of the Use of eWOM on Subjective Norms, Behavioural Control and Religious Tourist Revisit Intention","authors":"Ofunre Iriobe, Elizabeth Abiola-Oke","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3412517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3412517","url":null,"abstract":"Religious activities are a common topic of discussion on various platforms and online forums in Nigeria. These online interactions shape opinions and attitudes of tourist to a religious destination. The use of electronic word of mouth has become a factor in influencing behavioural intention. Hence, this study investigated the relationship between the use of eWOM and tourist revisiting intention to a religious destination and the effect of the use of eWOM on the relationship between Subjective Norm, Perceived Behavioural control and Revisit intention of visitors to religious destinations. The hypotheses for the study was tested using a Hierarchical Regression model. The essence was to examine the effect of each variable on revisit intention as they are entered into the regression equation. \u0000 \u0000The findings show that the combination of the use of eWOM, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control and even attitude has a strong influence on revisiting intention. However, the use of eWOM has a weak effect on revisit intention of religious tourists. The study recommends that managers of religious events pay more attention to the experience rather than focusing on using eWOM as a promotional tool, although it may attract new visitors, it will not make them come back.","PeriodicalId":263662,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Behavioral Economics (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131119250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Attention, Psychological Bias, and Social Interactions (Presentation Slides, for Finance Theory Group Wharton Summer School (Long Version))","authors":"D. Hirshleifer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3461934","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3461934","url":null,"abstract":"This is the long version of presentation slides on \"Attention, Psychological Bias, and Social Interactions.\" Many of the psychological biases studied in behavioral finance derive from limited cognitive processing power. I will discuss a general framework for modeling limited attention and economic decisions, and applications to financial issues. I will then turn to how limited attention and other psychological factors bias the transmission of information and behaviors between financial decision makers. I will describe applications of these ideas to the evolution of agents’ beliefs, trading or project decisions, asset pricing and return anomalies, and consumption/saving decisions.","PeriodicalId":263662,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Behavioral Economics (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133589164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can APPealing and More Informative Bills ‘Nudge’ Individuals Into Conserving Electricity?","authors":"Lukas Meub, Petrik Runst, Kaja von der Leyen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3414328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3414328","url":null,"abstract":"We use a field experiment on energy billing in a German region to evaluate the effect of two behavioral nudges (consumption feedback and social comparison) on electricity consumption. Similar experiments have revealed significant treatment effects, yet the individual variance has proven to be substantial. On grounds of these heterogeneous treatment effects and the possibility of cross-country behavioral differences, additional experiments are warranted. For our German participants with low pretreatment consumption compared to many other countries, we find no treatment effects. From this, we deduce that the effect of consumption feedback and social comparison is highly context dependent.","PeriodicalId":263662,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Behavioral Economics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125944264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Condition and Financial Cognition","authors":"M. Delis, E. Galariotis, Jerome Monne","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3405948","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3405948","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Are low-income individuals trapped because they are unable to make good financial decisions? We use a randomized controlled survey experiment to examine how prompting individuals to think about their personal economic condition (priming) affects their scores on a financial literacy quiz. We find that the marginal effect of poverty on financial literacy scores is 3.7 times higher for primed (treated) respondents compared to nonprimed ones. Priming not only worsens the financial literacy scores of low-income individuals, but also improves the scores of high-income individuals. Anxiety and shame are key explanations for our baseline results. Our findings shed light on how economic condition affects financial cognition, especially with regard to cognitive impediments resulting from negative emotions.","PeriodicalId":263662,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Behavioral Economics (Topic)","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127870563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On Bargaining Norms","authors":"Tymon Tatur","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3404831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3404831","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies bargaining outcomes in economies in which agents may be able to impose outcomes that deviate from the relevant social norm, but incur costs when they decide to do so. It characterizes bargaining outcomes that are easiest to sustain as a social norm to which everybody will want to adhere.<br><br>Depending on the nature of the costs, the approach yields concepts like the Nash Bargaining solution, the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution, or - for coalitional games with transferable payoffs -refinements of the core. Set-valued solution concepts are derived that are relevant if one is unable or unwilling to make specific assumptions about the costs.","PeriodicalId":263662,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Behavioral Economics (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126179600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice under Prospect Theory","authors":"Servaas van Bilsen, R. Laeven","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3398873","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3398873","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explicitly derives the optimal dynamic consumption and portfolio choice of an individual with prospect theory preferences. The individual is loss averse, endogenously updates his reference level over time, and distorts probabilities. We show that the optimal consumption strategy is rather insensitive to economic shocks. In particular, in case the individual sufficiently overweights unlikely unfavorable events, our model generates an endogenous floor on consumption. As a result, an individual with prospect theory preferences typically implements a (very) conservative portfolio strategy. We discuss implications of our results for the design of investment-linked annuity products.","PeriodicalId":263662,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Behavioral Economics (Topic)","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134486033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}