{"title":"Forecasting Road Traffic and its Significance for Transport Policy","authors":"P. Goodwin","doi":"10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.14","url":null,"abstract":"Traffic forecasting developed initially to decide how much road capacity to provide, but early methods tended to underestimate the growth. The methods were changed but then from the late 1980s systematically overestimated traffic growth, distorting the appraisal of benefits, and transforming the policy implications: it became evident that no feasible road capacity expansion would be enough to cope with the forecast traffic, and it would be necessary to manage demand instead. Since 2015 the official forecasts have sensibly avoided specifying a ‘most probable’ future, replacing it with a variety of different possibilities from almost no growth to exceedingly high. This creates a framework for a much more useful type of policy appraisal, though practical road proposals mostly still confidently assert high traffic growth at levels which have not been seen for over 25 years.","PeriodicalId":257562,"journal":{"name":"Transport Matters","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130783163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Changing demographics","authors":"C. Musselwhite, K. Chatterjee","doi":"10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.21","url":null,"abstract":"Older people are travelling more than previous generations, especially by private vehicle. By contrast there has been a decline in car use among the younger population. We highlight how many of the reasons for these trends lie outside the transport sector. Younger people are living at home longer, delaying getting married and having children later in life. A decline in young people’s disposable income, a growth in low-end service jobs and the rise of precarious employment are also likely to be key contributors to a reduction in car use, especially with rising learning to drive and insurance costs. Younger people are also more likely to live in urban areas, which means less need for private vehicles. Older people are more likely to live in dispersed communities that require a car to access services and shops. They are less likely to use the internet for shopping, for accessing services and for staying connected to people. They have lived through a time of increased reliance and norms around using the car and continue this into later life. Examining mobility in relation to age suggests a need to look at how transport matters from the viewpoint of individuals and their relationship with society.","PeriodicalId":257562,"journal":{"name":"Transport Matters","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130253669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Transport MattersPub Date : 2019-10-01DOI: 10.1332/POLICYPRESS/9781447329558.003.0013
D. Dawson, G. Marsden
{"title":"Disruption and Resilience: New Realities?","authors":"D. Dawson, G. Marsden","doi":"10.1332/POLICYPRESS/9781447329558.003.0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1332/POLICYPRESS/9781447329558.003.0013","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter reviews the implications of growing travel demand and the increased risk of climatic events damaging infrastructure on transport policy. Whilst the policy narrative remains one of tackling congestion and removing pinch points, growing travel demand will outstrip investments, placing greater day-to-day pressure on networks and increasing susceptibility to breakdowns and minor demand variations. Less frequent and higher impact climate related events will become more commonplace but will struggle to command resources for anticipatory action relative to the day-to-day pressures, particularly in areas with lower congestion and fewer alternatives. By necessity travellers and businesses will develop their own adaptive strategies to both reduce exposure and create alternatives to disruptive events. Policies which promote greater localism, multi-modalism, flexibility in activity locations (both physically and virtually) should become more highly valued as antidotes to both the regular and irregular patterns of disruption we should anticipate.","PeriodicalId":257562,"journal":{"name":"Transport Matters","volume":"95 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114573787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The political economy of transport and travel","authors":"Iain Docherty, J. Shaw, David Waite","doi":"10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.9","url":null,"abstract":"In the chapter we focus on why we spend money on some things and not on others, and why this matters. Our point is that transport investment can create both winners and losers, and it is important to be open and honest about this, and fully aware of the consequences, before committing public resources. Failing to do so runs the risk of perpetuating existing inequalities in a policy environment where a) there is already plenty of inequality and b) public resources for investment are scarce.","PeriodicalId":257562,"journal":{"name":"Transport Matters","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121101902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Gentle Tyranny of Cost–Benefit Analysis in Transport Appraisal","authors":"R. Hickman","doi":"10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.13","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter considers the application of cost-benefit analysis in the UK transport planning process, asking whether a reliance on narrow economic criteria, and a centralised decision-making process, helps us to progress sufficiently against wide-ranging sustainability goals. A case study of the proposed Merseytram is examined, a project that remains unimplemented from the early 2000s.","PeriodicalId":257562,"journal":{"name":"Transport Matters","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131999463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Transport Matters","authors":"J. Shaw, Iain Docherty","doi":"10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc","url":null,"abstract":"We begin by considering why, how and how much transport matters, both in itself and in relation to a whole host of public policy areas including economic development, social inclusion, health and wellbeing, (im)migration, education, crime / law and order, housing and the environment. We set out and explain the aim of the book, and provide an overview of transport policy over the last 50 years by way of context for a summary of what follows in the remainder of the book. We conclude by considering key themes that emerged in authors’ discussions during the process of putting the book together.","PeriodicalId":257562,"journal":{"name":"Transport Matters","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121697781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Influencing travel behaviour","authors":"S. Barr, J. Preston","doi":"10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.12","url":null,"abstract":"As travel planning’s theoretical underpinnings have broadened from engineering and economics to embrace psychology and sociology, an emphasis has been placed on social marketing and nudge theory. It is argued that this is consistent with a neo-liberal trend towards governing from a distance. Using two case studies, one a qualitative study of reducing short-haul air travel, the other a quantitative study of attempts to reduce local car travel, it is found that actual behaviour change is limited. This seems to arise because behavioural change has been too narrowly defined and overly identified with personal choice.","PeriodicalId":257562,"journal":{"name":"Transport Matters","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121490565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Remote, rural and island communities","authors":"D. Gray","doi":"10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvqr1bpc.19","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter examines transport in the remote rural and island areas, with a particular focus on the Highlands and Islands of Scotland. I explore 50 years of failure to address the rural transport problem, highlighting how population distribution and destination competition have conspired with funding issues and car use to thwart efforts to arrest the decline in rural bus use. In the second part of the chapter I discuss car dependence, how it varies across different types of rural locality and the importance of someone else’s car in maintaining rural access and mobility. Part three examines the impact of rising fuel costs in rural areas, but argues that large scale investment in roads and bridges have had a much more significant long-term impact on people’s travel habits, changing the way that life is lived in the region. I conclude with some reflection on the game-changing potential of technological innovation such as AVs for remote and rural areas.","PeriodicalId":257562,"journal":{"name":"Transport Matters","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132153605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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