PRN: 20th Century Philosophy (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"On Keynes's a Treatise on Probability and General Theory: Why the Basic, Essential Foundations for Both Works Were Not Understood by Economists and Philosophers","authors":"M. E. Brady","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3111061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3111061","url":null,"abstract":"The failure of economists and philosophers to grasp and understand the basic, essential, logical, mathematical and ethical building blocks that were used by Keynes in his construction of the A Treatise on Probability and General Theory explain why Keynes’s work in ethics, decision theory and macroeconomics is caricatured by the question, “What did Keynes really, really mean?” The foundation for both the A Treatise on Probability and General Theory is Keynes’s interval valued approach to probability, based on G. Boole’s 1854 The Laws of Thought, combined with his related concept of the weight of the evidence (not the weight of the argument), which underlies Keynes’s concept of uncertainty in the General Theory. There are two basic kinds of probabilities that Keynes used to operationalize his logical theory of probability, indeterminate, non additive, non linear interval valued probabilities and imprecise, interval valued probabilities based on Boole’s interval valued upper and lower probabilities. Part II of the A Treatise on Probability provided the first axiomatic foundation for additive, linear, mathematical probability and an explicit discussion of non additivity in chapters 10-14. Chapters 15-17 provided Keynes’s own version of Boole’s technical apparatus. Chapter 26 of the A Treatise on Probability summarizes Keynes’s interval valued approach and provides a mathematical decision rule that Keynes called a conventional coefficient of weight and risk, c. Keynes’s c is the first decision rule in history that provides a generalization of the linear and additive probability calculus that extends the theory of decision making to include both non linear and non additive decision weights. In Chapter 29 of the A Treatise on Probability, Keynes provided the first “safety first” approach using lower bounds to establish imprecise probabilities. Keynes’s General Theory is based on Keynes’s own unique, certainty equivalent approach in order to incorporate his interval valued and weight concepts from the A Treatise on Probability. There are two different models in the General Theory-the microeconomic foundations in the theory of the firm, production function, and labor market are provided by the expectational D (aggregate demand function)-Z (aggregate supply function) model that allowed Keynes to construct his Aggregate Supply curve (ASC), a locus of all possible D-Z intersections that are optimal for the entrepreneur. Only one of these intersections will be actually realized. The realized value is called Y. This is used to provide a specific Y, actual or realized, value that is then used in Keynes’s second model-the IS-LP(LM) model. This model is composed of two parts. The first part, Y=C I=C S, leading to the I=S, or IS, equation, incorporates the actual consumption function, marginal propensity to consume, investment function, and investment multiplier. The second part incorporates the L=M, or LM, equation given by Keynes on page 199. It specifies the de","PeriodicalId":253539,"journal":{"name":"PRN: 20th Century Philosophy (Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116683421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Karl Popper's Superstitious Indeterminism: Is Statistics a Science?","authors":"Hak Choi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2831928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2831928","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows how a great philosopher, like Popper, can easily fall back to a common superstitious person. This paper also criticizes the general practice by statisticians to invent ad hoc method or manipulate data to suppress errors. Instead, this paper promotes the Xenophanes spirit of discovering from uncertainties and unknowns.","PeriodicalId":253539,"journal":{"name":"PRN: 20th Century Philosophy (Topic)","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128040188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Beyond the Realism of Mainstream Economic Theory. Phenomenology in Economics.","authors":"Peter Galbács","doi":"10.18559/EBR.2016.4.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18559/EBR.2016.4.1","url":null,"abstract":"Since it evolved into its current form, mainstream economics relies strongly on mathematical tools and methods. Although using ideal types (as Max Weber used the term) is not the only way of exploring and studying the real world, economic theory has not paid considerable attention to those phenomenological methods that generated a renewal of sociology, mainly in the United States, decades ago. In this paper, some specialties of phenomenology as a method of social sciences are reviewed that make it suitable for being the foundation of a research program in economics to complement results we already have. In Section 1 a general introduction is given in which the mathematical approach of economics and its shortcomings are reviewed. The main emphasis is on the evident realization that 'homo oeconomicus' cannot help us to understand real economic agents' behavior and their motives. In Section 2 phenomenology is suggested as a general end comprehensive way of studying and understanding socio-economic reality. Some of Husserl's main ideas are surveyed that are important from the point of view of phenomenological sociology, that is, our guide in questioning economic life. The main concept of Section 3 is 'Life World'. Husserl described our life world as the unquestioned basis our everyday life and knowledge. Following the way that phenomenological sociology has already walked we get to the general strategy of people by which they make real world surrounding them understandable. Types as the fundamental navigation instrument stand in the center of our attention in Section 4. All the elements and agents of our life world are directed under types by which people can make anticipations on the behavior of their fellow-men. In Section 5 we get to experimental economics, referring to the famous and well-known experiments of Vernon L. Smith on market bubbles. Economists know that market bubbles disappear after 2 or 3 experiments done with the same agents - by that time rules and patterns of other players' actions get known to all the agents participating in the game. Phenomenology can offer new aspects to consider: as agents get into a new milieu that laboratory makes they have to abandon the validity of their types of cognition. As more and more turns are taken in the game, these types regain their validity and they can become available when it comes to direct actions in the laboratory again.","PeriodicalId":253539,"journal":{"name":"PRN: 20th Century Philosophy (Topic)","volume":"140 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123357132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}