{"title":"Strategy Switching in the Japanese Stock Market","authors":"Ryuichi Yamamoto, Hideaki Hirata","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2001979","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2001979","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the expectation formation process of Japanese stock market professionals. By utilizing a monthly forecast survey dataset on the TOPIX distributed by QUICK Corporation, we sort forecasters into buy-side and sell-side professionals. We empirically demonstrate that the buy-side and sell-side professionals use either fundamental or trend-following strategies throughout their expectation formation processes and that they switch between fundamental and trend-following strategies over time. We also discuss that strategy switching can be key in understanding the persistent deviation of the TOPIX from the fundamentals.","PeriodicalId":237209,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Case Studies of Global Financial Markets (Topic)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123696953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Currency Choices in Valuation: An Approach for Emerging Markets","authors":"Guillermo L. Dumrauf","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2006502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2006502","url":null,"abstract":"One of the common issues in Valuation in emerging markets is the choice of the currency for the Valuation and how it affects the inputs. Very often, multinational companies, when valuing an investment or an acquisition in an emerging market, are required to express expected cash flows in a strong currency, usually dollars. Since these investments generate sales, expenses and cash flows in domestic currency, it is necessary to forecast the exchange rate for the investment horizon. In this paper we demonstrate the equivalence of the fair value independent of the currency used in the valuation, forecasting the exchange rate using the yield spread observed in market bonds, providing a framework that can help senior management to analyze the assumptions consistency. Although a controversial issue arises, since the simultaneous fulfillment of Interest Rate Parity theory (IRP) and Purchasing Power Parity theory (PPP) implies that the Real Exchange Rate (RER) remains constant for the explicit forecast period, the model can be extended to assess the impact on the business value as a consequence of a different evolution of the real exchange rate.","PeriodicalId":237209,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Case Studies of Global Financial Markets (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122181512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Multivariate Nonparametric Estimation of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall for Nonlinear Returns Using Extreme Value Theory","authors":"R. Brauchler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2147760","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2147760","url":null,"abstract":"The catastrophic failures of risk management systems in 2008 bring to the forefront the need for accurate and flexible estimators of market risk. Despite advances in the theory and practice of evaluating risk, existing measures are notoriously poor predictors of loss in high-quantile events. To extend the research concerned with modeling extreme value events, we utilize extreme value theory (EVT) to propose a multivariate estimation procedure for value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) for conditional distributions of a time series of returns on a financial asset. Our approach extends the local linear estimator of conditional mean and volatility used in the conditional heteroskedastic autoregressive nonlinear (CHARN) model proposed by Martins-Filho and Yao (2006) by incorporating an exogenous time series resembling returns on the S&P 500 from January 1950 through September 2011. In combination with EVT, this model estimates the quantiles of the conditional distribution and subsequently the one-day forecasted VaR and ES. We examine the fi nite sample properties of our method and contrast them with the popular Gaussian GARCH estimator in an extensive Monte Carlo simulation. The method we propose generally outperforms the Gaussian GARCH estimator, particularly in samples greater than 1,000. Our results provide evidence of the e ffect of the curse of dimensionality, which arises because we include a second regressor.","PeriodicalId":237209,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Case Studies of Global Financial Markets (Topic)","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114192958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do Financial Systems Converge? A Comprehensive Panel Data Approach and New Evidence from a Dataset for 102 Countries","authors":"M. Stolbov, Alexander Veysov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2037395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2037395","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is to investigate the existence of β- convergence and σ- convergence for financial institutional characteristics for the dataset of 102 countries from 1980 to 2009. The research is based on panel data econometric models and 10 financial depth indicators. The partial effects of corruption and financial openness are also to be estimated. The main conclusion is that the world exhibits steady financial development as well as β-convergence of financial depth indicators, the middle income countries converging relatively faster. Nevertheless the speed of convergence is not sufficient for the developing world to catch up quickly.","PeriodicalId":237209,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Econometric Case Studies of Global Financial Markets (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129990227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}