Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change最新文献

{"title":"Variability and long‐term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review","authors":"H. Heidemann, Timothy P. Cowan, B. Henley, J. Ribbe, Mandy B. Freund, S. Power","doi":"10.1002/wcc.823","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.823","url":null,"abstract":"The Australian monsoon delivers seasonal rain across a vast area of the continent stretching from the far northern tropics to the semi‐arid regions. This article provides a review of advances in Australian monsoon rainfall (AUMR) research and a supporting analysis of AUMR variability, observed trends, and future projections. AUMR displays a high degree of interannual variability with a standard deviation of approximately 34% of the mean. AUMR variability is mostly driven by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and north of Australia also play a role. Decadal AUMR variability is strongly linked to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), partially through the IPO's impact on the strength and position of the Pacific Walker Circulation and the South Pacific Convergence Zone. AUMR exhibits a century‐long positive trend, which is large (approximately 20 mm per decade) and statistically significant over northwest Australia. The cause of the observed trend is still debated. Future changes in AUMR over the next century remain uncertain due to low climate model agreement on the sign of change. Recommendations to improve the understanding of AUMR and confidence in AUMR projections are provided. This includes improving the representation of atmospheric convective processes in models, further explaining the mechanisms responsible for AUMR variability and change. Clarifying the mechanisms of AUMR variability and change would aid with creating more sustainable future agricultural systems by increasing the reliability of predictions and projections.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46842346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can southern Australian rainfall decline be explained? A review of possible drivers","authors":"R. McKay, Ghyslaine Boschat, I. Rudeva, A. Pepler, A. Purich, A. Dowdy, P. Hope, Z. E. Gillett, S. Rauniyar","doi":"10.1002/wcc.820","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.820","url":null,"abstract":"Southern Australia's rainfall is highly variable and influenced by factors across scales from synoptic weather to large‐scale circulation and remote climate modes of variability. Anthropogenic climate change and natural variability modulate these factors and their interactions. However, studies often focus on changes in selected parts of the climate system with less emphasis on the system as a whole. As such, it is difficult to gain a complete understanding of how southern Australia's rainfall responds to broad‐scale changes in the climate system. We step through the existing literature on long‐term changes in synoptic‐to‐large‐scale atmospheric circulation and drivers of climate variability to form a more complete story of rainfall changes across southern Australia. This process reveals that the most robust change is the observed winter decline in rainfall as it is consistent with several changing climatic factors: decreasing rainfall from weather systems, strengthening subtropical ridge, poleward shifts in the Hadley Cell and the Southern Annular Mode, and increasing frequency of positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. In other seasons, particularly summer, changes in atmospheric circulation and drivers may not agree with observed rainfall changes, highlighting gaps in our knowledge of atmospheric dynamics and climate change processes. Future work should focus on research across temporal‐ and spatial‐scales, better understanding of jet interactions, the influence of stratospheric processes on the troposphere, and instances of contrasting trends in drivers and southern Australian rainfall changes.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48012406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A history of the 1.5°C target","authors":"Béatrice Cointe, Hélène Guillemot","doi":"10.1002/wcc.824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.824","url":null,"abstract":"The 1.5°C target is now widely considered as the maximum acceptable limit for global warming. However, it is at once recent and, as it appears increasingly unreachable, already almost obsolete. Adopted as an aspirational target in the Paris Agreement in 2015, the 1.5°C objective originated with a political impetus within UNFCCC negotiations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) endorsed this policy‐driven target when it produced the Special Report on 1.5°C. This article highlights the continuity of the history of the 1.5°C target with that of the 2°C target, but also the differences between the two. Because the 1.5°C target considerably raises the bar on mitigation efforts, it exacerbates political tensions and ambiguities that were already latent in the 2°C target. This article retraces the emergence of the 1.5°C in diplomatic negotiations, the preparation of the IPCC Special report on 1.5°C, and the new kinds of debates they provoked among climate scientists and experts. To explain how an unreachable target became the reference for climate action, we analyze the “political calibration” of climate science and politics, which can also be described as a codependency between climate science and politics.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43913683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changing behavioral responses to heat risk in a warming world: How can communication approaches be improved?","authors":"Niall McLoughlin, C. Howarth, G. Shreedhar","doi":"10.1002/wcc.819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.819","url":null,"abstract":"Heat risks, such as those associated with heatwaves, are increasing in frequency, severity, and duration due to climate change. The ways in which people around the globe perceive and respond to heat risks are now of great importance to reduce a range of negative health outcomes. A growing body of literature aims to assess the factors that influence people's behaviors in relation to heat risks. This research can inform better interventions, such as improved communications approaches, that attempt to facilitate adaptive behavioral responses to such risks. This review focuses on how insights from behavioral and attitudinal studies about heat risk responses can inform communication approaches. These insights are organized into three key themes: (1) Behaviors—What types of actions can be taken by people, and what evidence is there for adaptive behavior? (2) Antecedents—Which individual and contextual factors can influence people's behaviors? (3) Communications—How can existing insights be better integrated into interventions? Aspects of communication, including the role of message characteristics, messenger, and imagery, are discussed, with examples of messages and narratives that target influential antecedents of adaptive responses to heat risks. The paper makes three important contributions. First, it organizes literature on the antecedents and behavioral responses to heat risk; second, it provides a typology of the range of heat risk behaviors; and, third, it discusses how antecedents can be integrated into communication interventions. The review concludes with a proposed agenda for research, highlighting the need for substantial testing and evaluation of heat risk communication, applying insights from the literature.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48597098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Legal culture and climate change adaptation: An agenda for research","authors":"E. Hoddy, S. Halliday, J. Ensor, C. Wamsler, E. Boyd","doi":"10.1002/wcc.825","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.825","url":null,"abstract":"While climate change adaptation research has increasingly focused on aspects of culture, a systematic treatment of the role of legal culture in how communities respond to climate risk has yet to be produced. This is despite the fact that law and legal authority are implicated in most, if not all, of the ways in which actors seek to reduce the risks posed to communities by climate change. Using a scoping review methodology, this article examines the intersection of climate change adaptation and legal culture in existing research. Overall, we find that the significance of legal culture for adaptation actions has been under‐explored. Yet, it is also clear that a focus on legal culture holds significant promise for our understanding of climate change adaptation. We set out a research agenda for the field, highlighting the ways in which a focus on legal culture may enrich existing key themes within climate change adaptation research.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47082329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change impacts on immovable cultural heritage in polar regions: A systematic bibliometric review","authors":"I. Nicu, S. Fatorić","doi":"10.1002/wcc.822","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.822","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past decade, research on the impacts of climate change on immovable cultural heritage (ICH) in the polar regions (Arctic and Antarctica) has slowly increased. This article offers a systematic review and synthesis of the publications about climate change impacts on the diverse ICH and climate change adaptation in the polar regions. Gray literature was not included in the study. Arctic countries like Sweden, Finland, Iceland, and Russia, and their associated research organizations, are under‐represented in this literature when compared with the USA, Canada, Denmark, and Norway. More than half of the analyzed literature is published in the last 3 years (2019, 2020, and 2021) with a focus on coastal erosion and ICH degradation (cryospheric hazards). ICH is at risk from biological degradation, coastal erosion, debris flow, and thaw slumping. Nearly half of the studies report on the need for climate change adaptation planning and implementation for ICH. This study shows that advances in research on climate change impacts and adaptation responses are needed to improve decision‐ and policy‐maker capacity to support effective adaptation policies and to contribute to the achievement of SDGs in polar regions. The polar regions' vulnerable landscapes and ICH sites can be used to communicate a larger message about the climate change challenges and adaptation measures.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47524892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sino‐American competition and the future of climate cooperation","authors":"S. Moore","doi":"10.1002/wcc.821","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.821","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is often thought of as an issue that only cooperation can address. But growing tensions between the world's two largest emitters, the United States and China, demand that scholars contribute to a new understanding of how climate change, geopolitics, and international relations intersect. A better understanding of how competition might affect climate action by individual states, and more rigorous assessment of whether it might be helpful rather than harmful, is needed.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43290728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Livestock, methane, and climate change: The politics of global assessments.","authors":"Ian Scoones","doi":"10.1002/wcc.790","DOIUrl":"10.1002/wcc.790","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The relationship between livestock production and climate change is the subject of hot debate, with arguments for major shifts in diets and a reduction in livestock production. This Perspective examines how global assessments of livestock-derived methane emissions are framed, identifying assumptions and data gaps that influence standard life-cycle analysis approaches. These include inadequate data due to a focus on industrial not extensive systems; errors arising due to inappropriate emission factors being applied; questions of how global warming potentials are derived for different greenhouse gases and debates about what baselines are appropriate. The article argues for a holistic systems approach that takes account of diverse livestock systems-both intensive and extensive-including both positive and negative impacts. In particular, the potential benefits of extensive livestock systems are highlighted, including supporting livelihoods, providing high-quality nutrition, enhancing biodiversity, protecting landscapes, and sequestering carbon. By failing to differentiate between livestock systems, global assessments may mislead. Inappropriate measurement, verification and reporting processes linked to global climate change policy may in turn result in interventions that can undermine the livelihoods of extensive livestock-keepers in marginal areas, including mobile pastoralists. In the politics of global assessments, certain interests promote framings of the livestock-climate challenge in favour of contained, intensive systems, and the conversion of extensive rangelands into conservation investments. Emerging from a narrow, aggregated scientific framing, global assessments therefore can have political consequences. A more disaggregated, nuanced approach is required if the future of food and climate change is to be effectively addressed. This article is categorized under:Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Assessing Climate Change in the Context of Other IssuesClimate and Development > Social Justice and the Politics of Development.</p>","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":"14 1","pages":"e790"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10078214/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9272445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Issue Information","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/wcc.784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.784","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41959825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Limits to adaptation: Building an integrated research agenda","authors":"F. Berkhout, K. Dow","doi":"10.1002/wcc.817","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.817","url":null,"abstract":"The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report Working Group II report of (2022) has brought greater attention to the issue of limits to the capacity to adapt to climate change. But the report also showed that research in the field continues to be fragmented and under‐developed, and that the problem of limits is not widely considered in policy. In this paper, we argue for a more coherent, interdisciplinary approach to research on adaptation limits, linked to the concept of transformative adaptation. A risk‐based approach to adaptation limits offers a framework to deepen, broaden and connect research which responds to the needs of policymakers. We set out four promising directions for future research on: the dimensions of limits; the dynamics of limits; formalization of research on limits; and ethics and justice challenges underpinning adaptation limits.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49078222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}