ERN: Inflation & Deflation (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Inflation Dynamics in Fyr Macedonia","authors":"Maral Shamloo","doi":"10.5089/9781463927219.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781463927219.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also develop two quarterly models: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for a more structural model of inflation. The NKPC shows a significant effect of output gap and inflation expectations on current inflation, confirming that the expectations channel of monetary transmission mechanism is strong. In terms of forecast-error variance, we show that all three models do very well in one-period ahead forecasting.","PeriodicalId":235167,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Inflation & Deflation (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128255940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Price Convergence and Cointegration","authors":"Alfredo García-Hiernaux, David E. Guerrero","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1865964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1865964","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a new, unified, and flexible framework to measure and characterize a convergence process. Specifically, we formally define the notion of price convergence and propose a model to represent a wide range of transition paths that converge to a common steady-state. Our framework enables the econometric measurement of such transitional behaviors and the development of testing procedures. In particular, we derive a statistical test to determine whether convergence exists and, if so, of which type: as catching-up or steady-state. The application of this methodology to historic wheat prices results in a novel explanation about the event that triggered the convergence processes experienced during the 19th century.","PeriodicalId":235167,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Inflation & Deflation (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134271603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate and Financial Globalization","authors":"Muhammad Naveed Tahir","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1968922","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1968922","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we investigate the impact of financial globalization on the behaviour of inflation targeting emerging market economies with respect to exchange rate - do central banks respond to exchange rate movements or not. We use quarterly data for six emerging market inflation targeting economies from the date of their inflation targeting adoption to 2009 Q4. The study uses small open economy new Keynesian model a la Gali and Monacelli (2005), and employs multi-equation GMM technique to investigate the relationship. We find that the response of central bank to the exchange rate in case of Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Thailand is statistically significant while insignificant for Korea and Czech Republic. Theoretically, it should not be so as even under flexible inflation targeting central bank responds to inflation deviation and output gap; we think that the peculiar characteristics of emerging markets, like fear of floating, weak financial system and low level of central bank credibility make exchange rate important for these economies.","PeriodicalId":235167,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Inflation & Deflation (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127636793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Break-Even Inflation Rate and the Risk Premium: An Alternative Approach to the VAR Models in Forecasting the CPI","authors":"J. Caldeira, Luiz Gustavo Cassilatti Furlani","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2290408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2290408","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines, for the Brazilian case, if break-even inflation rates (BEIR) extracted from fixed income securities are an unbiased estimator of consumer inflation, measured by the CPI. Our estimates suggest that BEIRs are informative about future inflation, especially for the maturity of three months. The main innovation of our work, however, is the method used for estimation, allowing us to conclude that the inflation risk premium, for some maturities considered, varies over time and is not irrelevant from the economic standpoint. We also compared the inflation forecasts obtained from BEIRs with the ones extracted from VAR models used by Central Bank and estimates from the Focus Survey Report's Top5s. The forecasts performed with BEIRs showed greater accuracy than those extracted from VAR models. These projections, however, underperformed those from the Top5s.","PeriodicalId":235167,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Inflation & Deflation (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125827767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling Inflation Using Markov Switching Models: Case of Poland, 1992-2005","authors":"Piotr Białowolski, Piotr Zwiernik, D. Żochowski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2393939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2393939","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate inflation in Poland in the period of economic transition by examining the potential application of Markov Switching Models to model the inflation generating process in Poland. The time horizon of analysis was limited to the period between March 1992 and October 2005 defined as the process of disinflation, i.e. the process of continued decrease in inflation rates following the economic transition period in early 1990s which was accompanied by a high level of inflation. According to the Ball-Friedman hypothesis, variation of inflation during periods of high inflation can be unstable. Indeed, the results show that non-linear models significantly improve the description of inflation generating process in Poland. Apart from univariate Markov Models, we also use a model that incorporates inflation expectations measured by Future Inflation Indicator (FII). We find that the model, where lagged values of FII are included as exogenous variables is significantly better in modelling inflation than simple univariate Markov Model.","PeriodicalId":235167,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Inflation & Deflation (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131083025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"글로벌 금융위기와 물가안정목표제 평가: 근원인플레이션을 중심으로. (Measures of Underlying Inflation and Evaluation of Inflation Targeting with Global Crisis in Korea)","authors":"W. Park","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.3.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.3.1","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 본고에서는 글로벌 금융위기의 충격을 산출량에 장기적 중립성을 가지는 근원적 충격과 장기적 중립성을 가지지 않는 비근원적 충격으로 나누어 글로벌 금융위기 기간 중 근원적 충격이 물가안정목표 달성에 미친 영향을 분석하였다. 본고에서 보인 바와 같이 글로벌 금융위기가 수요에 미친 영향과 이로 인해 물가가 안정된 효과를 제대로 파악하지 못하면 향후 물가안정이 어려워질 수 있다. 농산물과 석유류 제품의 일시적 공급충격을 제거한 통상적 근원인플레이션을 기준으로 평가하면, 2007～09년 중 물가안정목표는 안정적으로 달성된 것처럼 보이고 향후 목표 달성도 무난해 보인다. 그러나 중앙은행의 통제 대상인 구조적 근원인플레이션을 기준으로 평가하면 매우 달라진다. 글로벌 금융위기를 전후한 수요충격으로 근원인플레이션이 크게 변동하였으며, 2007～09년 중 물가안정목표 달성은 글로벌 금융위기에 따른 마이너스 성장에 기인한 바가 크다. 또한 글로벌 금융위기 이후 각종 경기확대정책에 힘입어 경기가 빠르게 회복되면서 근원인플레이션이 급격하게 상승하고 있으므로 향후 적절한 출구전략을 마련해야 한다. English Abstract: The global financial crisis has exerted enormous impacts on the attainment of inflation target in Korea. The annual average CPI inflation was 3.3% during the targeting period of 2007-2009 and the target was 3.0±0.5%. Thus Korea has succeeded in keeping annual average CPI inflation just below the upper limit of the 2007-2009 target under the global crisis. This paper intends to evaluate the performance of the inflation targeting system in Korea. First, it estimates the conventional call rate reaction equation under the global crisis and finds that the policy interest rates never reacted to expected inflation, output gap, and won/dollar exchange rate, as expected by theory. Second, it identifies the shock of global financial crisis into core and non-core, applying the structural VAR model. The core shock was defined to have no (medium- to) long-run impact on real output. The core shock was identified to have the character of the demand shock, since it has the positive impact on the inflation and output in the short run. The structural core inflation due to core shock was an attractor of headline inflation, not vice versa. Therefore, the structural core inflation that reflects the demand-side shock would be the better intermediate target for the final headline inflation target than the official core inflation that excludes the volatile inflation of agricultural and oil-related products. During the inflation targeting period of 2007-2009, the structural core inflation was more volatile than the official core inflation, because the global crisis has very large negative impacts on the domestic demand as well as the prices of agricultural and oil-related products. This paper shows that the negative core shock during the fourth quarter of 2008 was larger than that in the financial crisis in 1998. But the core shock turned into positive very quickly in 2009, as the Korean economy recovered very quickly from crisis. The volatile changes in structural core inflation suggests that the Bank of Korea barely managed to attain the 2007-2009 inflation target, owing to the very large negative impacts of the global financial crisis on the domestic demand. It also suggests that the rapid rise in core inflation with the rapid recovery of the Korean economy will lead to rapid rise in headline inflation.","PeriodicalId":235167,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Inflation & Deflation (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117170689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predictive Power of Output Growth, Inflation and Interest Rate on Stock Return and Volatility: A Comparison","authors":"W. Poon, Gee-Kok Tong","doi":"10.32890/IJMS.17.2010.10188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32890/IJMS.17.2010.10188","url":null,"abstract":"Using monthly data from seven mature and emerging markets and a battery of GARCH and EGARCH models, the study of Davis and Kutan (2003) on inflation and output on stock returns and volatility is extended by including interest rate to compare the effect between three mature markets (US, Japan, and Singapore) and four emerging markets who experienced a crisis before (Malaysia, India, Korea, and Philippines). It is found that economic volatility, as measured by movement in inflation, output growth, and interest rate, have a weak predictor power for stock market volatility and returns. In line with the evidence reported in Davis and Kutan (2003), the findings suggest that there is no support for the Fisher effect in stock returns among the seven mature and emerging markets.","PeriodicalId":235167,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Inflation & Deflation (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116980709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Validity of Fisher Hypothesis: Evidence from Sri Lanka","authors":"Thuraisingam Udayaseelan, P. Jayasinghe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2535123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2535123","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this paper is to evaluate whether the Fisher Hypothesis holds in the context of Sri Lankan financial markets. Using the Rupee denominated three-month Treasury bill rates from 1978 to 2007 on annual basis, from 1983:1 to 2003:1 on quarterly basis and from 1982:1 to 2006:12 on monthly basis, this paper will employ the instrumental variables method for monthly and quarterly data and cointegration analysis for annual data to investigate the validity of the Fisher Hypothesis in Sri Lanka. Both rational expectations and adaptive expectations approaches are used to obtain a proxy for expected inflation. The study produces no empirical support for even a partial Fisher effect in Sri Lanka during the sample periods concerned under all three data frequencies.","PeriodicalId":235167,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Inflation & Deflation (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124012661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Classical Deflation Theory","authors":"T. M. Humphrey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2184508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2184508","url":null,"abstract":"Classical economists David Hume, Pehr Niclas Christiernin, Henry Thornton, David Ricardo, Thomas Attwood, and Robert Torrens looked beyond the redistributive (creditor-debtor) effects of deflationary monetary contraction to its adverse effects on output and employment. They attributed these effects to price-wage stickiness; to rises in real debt, tax, and cost burdens; to cash hoarding in anticipation of future price falls; and to other determinants. Addressing deflation associated with post-war resumption of gold convertibility at the old mint par, they advocated policies ranging from gradualism, to devaluation, and even to outright abandonment of the gold standard in order to avoid or mitigate deflation’s harm.","PeriodicalId":235167,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Inflation & Deflation (Topic)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115246566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Multiple-Regime Econometric Model of Inflation for Mauritius","authors":"A. J. Khadaroo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2191086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2191086","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates a semi-multivariate dynamic model of Mauritian inflation, using monthly data over the period January 1976 - December 2001, which captures the significant nonlinearity and asymmetry present in the inflation process. Starting from a linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, asymmetric nonlinearity is found and modelled using a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model. The LSTR model, while producing an improvement in fit over the ARDL model, contains significant autocorrelation and fails tests of parameter constancy and remaining nonlinearity. A logistic multiple-regime smooth transition regression (LMRSTR) model is then estimated, constituting a marked improvement over the LSTR model and hence the linear ARDL model. A simulation exercise produces interesting findings on the dynamic effects of the Rs./$ exchange rate on Mauritian inflation and demonstrates the superiority of the LMRSTR model over the conventional ARDL model.","PeriodicalId":235167,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Inflation & Deflation (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127552608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}