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A Diagnostic Test for the ‘Dutch Disease’ in the U.S.A using the ARDL Bounds Testing Technique 在美国使用ARDL界限检测技术诊断“荷兰病”
Research in Applied Economics Pub Date : 2019-04-23 DOI: 10.5296/RAE.V11I1.14074
K. Addey
{"title":"A Diagnostic Test for the ‘Dutch Disease’ in the U.S.A using the ARDL Bounds Testing Technique","authors":"K. Addey","doi":"10.5296/RAE.V11I1.14074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/RAE.V11I1.14074","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the impact of the most recent oil boom on North Dakota’s agricultural sector. I employ the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model to examine short and long run relationships among four labor competing sectors. The model produces an optimal lag order of ARDL (6,6,6,5). Results reveal an 80% speed of adjustment coefficient. This implies that about 80% of any disequilibrium caused by a shock to the economy can be corrected within a quarter of a year. The oil sector has a negative and positive impact on the agricultural and construction sectors respectively but no significant impact on the manufacturing sector. The impulse response function (IRF) from an orthogonalized structural vector autoregression (SVAR) matrix system revealed no deviation from the boom period equilibrium agricultural GDP. Structural spending policies are recommended to curb the negative effects of another oil boom on labor competing sectors. The introduction of an agricultural wage transfer tax will also be helpful in the event of another oil boom.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123334743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Do Oil Price Shocks Affect Household Consumption? 油价冲击会影响家庭消费吗?
Research in Applied Economics Pub Date : 2019-03-31 DOI: 10.5296/RAE.V11I1.13826
Nabila Zaman
{"title":"Do Oil Price Shocks Affect Household Consumption?","authors":"Nabila Zaman","doi":"10.5296/RAE.V11I1.13826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/RAE.V11I1.13826","url":null,"abstract":"The paper addresses whether international oil price change has any impact on consumer spending. The study is conducted using Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development nations, which have been chosen deliberately based on their economic importance and classifying each into oil importing and exporting countries: Canada, Germany, the UK and the USA. Applying the empirical methodology of the vector autoregressive model, we find evidence that international oil price shocks have a significant impact on consumer spending. The analysis is performed with two sets of specification for oil (‘Oil price change’ and ‘Net oil price increase’) and the main tools used for diagnosis are forecast error variance decomposition and impulse–response functions.The results are strongly significant for Canada and the USA. The results for Germany and the UK are mixed, which leads us to an inconclusive decision about the impact on these countries. However, in general, our empirical work supports the evidence that oil prices have some predictive power in influencing consumption decisions across oil-importing and oil-exporting countries.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133118723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sectoral Differences in Labor Productivity Growth: Estimation and Modeling 劳动生产率增长的部门差异:估计和建模
Research in Applied Economics Pub Date : 2019-03-30 DOI: 10.5296/RAE.V11I1.14145
R. Roson
{"title":"Sectoral Differences in Labor Productivity Growth: Estimation and Modeling","authors":"R. Roson","doi":"10.5296/RAE.V11I1.14145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/RAE.V11I1.14145","url":null,"abstract":"This study provides some empirical evidence and quantification of differences in labor productivity among industries and countries. Using a recently available data base of value added per worker, country and time fixed effects are estimated first for various industries. Results are subsequently elaborated, to identify some time trends and sectoral profiles by country, which are in turn employed in a cluster analysis, summarizing some salient characteristics of industrial labor productivity in different economies. The empirical exercise is motivated by the possible employment of its findings in the construction of long-run economic growth scenarios, by means of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. It is found that: (a) Manufacturing is normally the fastest growing sector and its performance is strongly correlated with the aggregate productivity growth; (b) differences in the rates of agricultural productivity gains are relatively minor; (c) slow-growing countries are characterized by slow-growing Services.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131390487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Measuring the Direct Cost Burden of Illness in Burkina Faso 衡量布基纳法索疾病的直接成本负担
Research in Applied Economics Pub Date : 2018-12-18 DOI: 10.5296/RAE.V10I4.14078
Ousmane Z Traoré
{"title":"Measuring the Direct Cost Burden of Illness in Burkina Faso","authors":"Ousmane Z Traoré","doi":"10.5296/RAE.V10I4.14078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/RAE.V10I4.14078","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we evaluate the direct cost burden of illness in Burkina Faso. The methodological approach predicts the normative health expenditure based on the population’s health risk factors and adjusts the income based on people’s asset portfolios, which are supposed to influence their ability to manage shocks, or their vulnerability to shocks like illness. Thus, using the National Institute for Statistics and Demography’s priority surveys database of 1996, our methodology leads to a better information on the distributions of income and health care spending across a subsample of 1022 treated individuals. Subsequently, the average of the direct cost burden of illness is 11.17%, and 50% of the population spend more than 10.52% of their adjusted income on normative health care. Otherwise, there is a difference of 66.84 of percentage points between the highest and lowest cost burdens. Overall, women face higher direct costs burden compared to men. Given the “catastrophic health expenditure” threshold conventionally set at 10% of income, to decrease these financial vulnerabilities and inequalities in Burkina Faso, one solution would be to achieve universal health coverage.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114391024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Oil Prices and the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Monetary Model 油价与美元汇率:来自货币模型的证据
Research in Applied Economics Pub Date : 2018-12-18 DOI: 10.5296/RAE.V10I4.14076
Moayad H. Al Rasasi
{"title":"Oil Prices and the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Monetary Model","authors":"Moayad H. Al Rasasi","doi":"10.5296/RAE.V10I4.14076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/RAE.V10I4.14076","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes how changes in global oil prices affect the US dollar (USD) exchange rate based on the monetary model of exchange rate. We find evidence indicating a negative relationship between oil prices and the USD exchange rate against 12 currencies. Specifically, the analysis of the impulse response function shows that the depreciation rate of the USD exchange rate ranges between 0.002 and 0.018 percentage points as a result of a one-standard deviation positive shock to the real price of crude oil. In the same vein, the forecast error variance decomposition analysis reveals that variation in the USD exchange rate is largely attributable to changes in the price of oil rather than monetary fundamentals. In last, the out-of-sample forecast exercise indicates that oil prices enhance the predictability power of the monetary model of exchange rate.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"91 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116039268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Effects of Capital Market Development and Foreign Direct Investment on the Entrepreneurial Process and Economic Growth 资本市场发展和外商直接投资对创业过程和经济增长的影响
Research in Applied Economics Pub Date : 2018-12-18 DOI: 10.5296/RAE.V10I4.14077
Tékam Oumbé Honoré
{"title":"The Effects of Capital Market Development and Foreign Direct Investment on the Entrepreneurial Process and Economic Growth","authors":"Tékam Oumbé Honoré","doi":"10.5296/RAE.V10I4.14077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/RAE.V10I4.14077","url":null,"abstract":"This article seeks to study the effects of the development of the capital market and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the entrepreneurial process and economic growth. The technical methods used in this study are the panel-based dynamic estimation method of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the Calderon-Rossell model, in order to assess the relative impact of the development of capital markets on the entrepreneurial process in the CEMAC zone. The results show that capital market and capitalization initiatives can lead to an entrepreneurial process and economic growth in the CEMAC region. In addition, the incidence of corruption, the rule of law and the quality of the regulatory framework are identified as the most important institutional frameworks that determine the attractiveness of CEMAC countries to the inflow of FDI.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124163719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Impact of Agricultural Exports to China on Economic Growth of Peru: A Short- and Long-Run Analysis 对华农产品出口对秘鲁经济增长的影响:短期和长期分析
Research in Applied Economics Pub Date : 2018-10-15 DOI: 10.5296/RAE.V10I4.13526
Nadia Nora Urriola, C. Aquino, P. Baral
{"title":"The Impact of Agricultural Exports to China on Economic Growth of Peru: A Short- and Long-Run Analysis","authors":"Nadia Nora Urriola, C. Aquino, P. Baral","doi":"10.5296/RAE.V10I4.13526","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/RAE.V10I4.13526","url":null,"abstract":"This study aimed to analyze and quantify the short and long-run impact of agricultural exports to China on economic growth in Peru using an annual time series data from 2001 to 2016 obtained from the Central Bank of Peru, the World Bank, and Trade Map. Agricultural exports value, labour force, and fixed capital formation value for each year of the stipulated period were used as determinant factors of the economic growth. Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Johansen Co-integration test, and Granger Causality test was employed for data analysis. The findings revealed that, in the short run, the agricultural sector and agricultural exports value to China have a positive, but non-significant effect on economic growth of Peru. At the same time, both fixed capital formation and labour force have a positive and significant impact on the GDP. ADF test showed that all determinants achieved stationary at a level I (0). Moreover, the Co-integration test result revealed a long-run relationship between the studied variables, and a unidirectional causality in the relationship between all variables and the economic growth except the relationship between the economic growth and the fixed capital formation, which revealed a bidirectional link. This study recommends policy options including the substantial investment in commercialization of agricultural products with added value and human capital development to improve the agriculture sector’s performance in the Peruvian economy as a driver of sustainable economic growth.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125687806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Common Metamodel of Questionnaire Model and Decision Tree Model 问卷模型和决策树模型的常用元模型
Research in Applied Economics Pub Date : 2018-09-25 DOI: 10.5296/RAE.V10I3.13540
Mirza Suljic, Edin Osmanbegović, Z. Dobrovic
{"title":"Common Metamodel of Questionnaire Model and Decision Tree Model","authors":"Mirza Suljic, Edin Osmanbegović, Z. Dobrovic","doi":"10.5296/RAE.V10I3.13540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/RAE.V10I3.13540","url":null,"abstract":"The subject of this paper is metamodeling and its application in the field of scientific research. The main goal is to explore the possibilities of integration of two methods: questionnaires and decision trees. The questionnaire method was established as one of the methods for data collecting, while the decision tree method represents an alternative way of presenting and analyzing decision making situations. These two methods are not completely independent, but on the contrary, there is a strong natural bond between them. Therefore, the result reveals a common meta-model that over common concepts and with the use of metamodeling connects the methods: questionnaires and decision trees. The obtained results can be used to create a CASE tool or create repository that can be suitable for exchange between different systems. The proposed meta-model is not necessarily the final product. It could be further developed by adding more entities that will keep some other data.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"115 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128899046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Constructing a Financial Condition Index for a Small-Open Economy: The Case of Malta 构建小开放经济的金融状况指数——以马耳他为例
Research in Applied Economics Pub Date : 2018-09-10 DOI: 10.5296/RAE.V10I3.13755
Borg Ian, Micallef Brian
{"title":"Constructing a Financial Condition Index for a Small-Open Economy: The Case of Malta","authors":"Borg Ian, Micallef Brian","doi":"10.5296/RAE.V10I3.13755","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/RAE.V10I3.13755","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Malta for the period 1996-2017. This index provides a summary measure of financial conditions by combining several financial variables, both domestic and foreign, that influence economic activity. The indicators in the FCI are grouped in four categories: interest rates, bank balance sheet, asset prices and external variables. The weights are derived using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and cross-checked using simulations from STREAM, the Central Bank of Malta’s macro-econometric model. Financial conditions in Malta were relatively benign in the mid-to-late 90s, followed by a period of tightening in the early 2000s. Financial conditions improved again during the pre-crisis period but deteriorated during the financial crisis and remained tight until 2013. In recent years these have recovered and became broadly neutral by 2017. The proposed FCIs correlate the most with one to three quarters ahead real GDP growth, suggesting potential predictive capacity for short-term forecasting.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121757261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Monetary Policy Behaviour over the Long Run in a Small Open Economy: A Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Approach 小型开放经济中的长期货币政策行为:一种马尔可夫转换向量误差修正方法
Research in Applied Economics Pub Date : 2018-08-25 DOI: 10.5296/RAE.V10I3.13223
R. Lange
{"title":"Monetary Policy Behaviour over the Long Run in a Small Open Economy: A Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Approach","authors":"R. Lange","doi":"10.5296/RAE.V10I3.13223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5296/RAE.V10I3.13223","url":null,"abstract":"This study identifies a long-run equilibrium relationship among important information variables with stochastic trends for monetary policy in Canada. The variables serve as both target policy variables for the domestic macroeconomy and reaction variables to external economic disturbances. The parameters of the cointegrated vector of information variables are found to be quite stable. A Markov-switching cointegrated VAR model captures two stochastic policy regimes with low- and high-variances. The weighting matrix for the error-correction terms for both inflation and output are found to be relatively stable across regimes, while the monetary policy rate is found to exhibit asymmetric behavior with error-correction adjustment only in the current low-variance regime.","PeriodicalId":225665,"journal":{"name":"Research in Applied Economics","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127280604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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