Risk Decision and Policy最新文献_第7页

Understanding uncertainty: forecasting seasonal climate for farmers in Zimbabwe 理解不确定性:为津巴布韦农民预测季节性气候

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2001-06-01 DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000321

A. Patt

{"title":"Understanding uncertainty: forecasting seasonal climate for farmers in Zimbabwe","authors":"A. Patt","doi":"10.1017/S1357530901000321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530901000321","url":null,"abstract":"Climatological and agricultural research has shown that El Nino cycles in the Pacific Ocean are a good predictor of maize yields in southern Africa, particularly Zimbabwe. However, forecasters can only offer probabilistic predictions, rather than saying with certainty whether Zimbabwe will experience wet or dry conditions. In an effort to avoid confusing farmers, extension service officers translate the forecast into deterministic terms. This approach conflicts with the literature in risk communication, which suggests that participatory discussions of the full forecast content is necessary to maintain credibility over time. But most of the research on which this literature is based has taken place in industrialized countries, and it is unclear whether the lessons apply as well in places like rural Zimbabwe. To test for this, an experiment was conducted with farmers in villages throughout Zimbabwe, in which they revealed their ability to make decisions under situations of uncertainty. The results are qualitatively similar to those of similar experiments conducted in industrialized countries. This suggests that improvements could be made to current forecast communication practices in Zimbabwe.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"239 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130951697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 60

Domain-specificity and gender differences in decision making 决策的领域特异性和性别差异

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2001-04-01 DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000254

Ann-Renée Blais, E. Weber

引用次数: 80

An overview of the use of risk assessment for environmental regulation in the UK key drivers and regulatory initiatives 概述在英国环境监管中使用风险评估的主要驱动因素和监管举措

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2001-04-01 DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000266

S. Pollard

引用次数: 10

Managing technological catastrophic risks 管理技术灾难性风险

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2001-04-01 DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000242

François Moreau

引用次数: 5

Probabilistic set-up and the search for probability information in quasi- naturalistic decision tasks 准自然决策任务中的概率设置和概率信息搜索

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2001-04-01 DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000230

O. Huber, S. Macho

{"title":"Probabilistic set-up and the search for probability information in quasi- naturalistic decision tasks","authors":"O. Huber, S. Macho","doi":"10.1017/S1357530901000230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530901000230","url":null,"abstract":"The influence of the probabilistic set-up (i.e., formal aspects of the presented probability information) and of the task domain on the active search for probability information in quasi-natural risky decision tasks was investigated. In each of four tasks (domains: business, medicine, social, epidemic control) 72 subjects chose between a risky alternative and one without risk. There were three conditions in relation to the probabilistic set-up: (a) In the single condition the decision concerned a single case (e.g., one person). In the two multiple conditions (b and c) the decision was for many cases (e.g., 100 persons). In (b) the decision maker had to make an either-or decision (same alternative for all cases). In (c) the subject could assign a proportion of cases to one alternative and the rest to the other one. While the probabilistic set-up had no effect on the search for probabilistic information, the task domain had a strong impact. Risky decision making has been one of the central themes of decision research for decades. Most of the relevant experiments have used and are still using simple lotteries (gambles or bets). In these experiments, the utilities of the consequences and the probabilities of obtaining the consequences are found to be the central","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117312024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 26

Some econometric evidence contradictory to the received wisdom on health and religion 一些计量经济学证据与关于健康和宗教的公认智慧相矛盾

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2000-12-01 DOI: 10.1017/S1357530900000223

S. Cameron

引用次数: 2

The effect of risk notification on mood in long-term survivors of Hodgkin's disease 风险通知对霍奇金病长期幸存者情绪的影响

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2000-12-01 DOI: 10.1017/S1357530900000211

J. Bloom, D. Thornton, S. Stewart, P. Fobair, A. Varghese, S. Hancock

{"title":"The effect of risk notification on mood in long-term survivors of Hodgkin's disease","authors":"J. Bloom, D. Thornton, S. Stewart, P. Fobair, A. Varghese, S. Hancock","doi":"10.1017/S1357530900000211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530900000211","url":null,"abstract":"Risk notification was the initial step in a larger study to determine (1) the prevalence of cardiovascular disease as a late effect of mediastinal irradiation, and (2) whether a brief support group intervention would mitigate any negative effects of risk notification. 323 HD survivors attended a 45 minute risk notification session prior to a routine follow-up medical visit. When they arrived at the clinic and following the risk notification session, they completed surveys that included measures of mood dysphoria, sense of coherence, knowledge of late effects of treatment, and demographic factors. Two analytic models were proposed to look at the effects of risk notification: (1) psychosocial state when arriving at the clinic, and (2) psychosocial change in state following risk notification session. Pre-intervention mood distress was not significantly affected by time since the initial diagnosis, age, education, or gender. Person's who worked and those with better coping skills had lower initial mood distress. Knowledge of the late effects of treatment was not related to mood distress. Following the intervention, the more distressed a person was initially, the better the coping skills, the greater the decrease in mood distress. Partnered survivors experienced less of a decrease in distress. Knowledge of the late effects of treatment (regardless of their knowledge of cardiovascular disease as a consequence), did not effect change in mood distress. Findings were contrary to expectations. Findings are consistent with Self-Regulation theory and the Health Belief Model and are not explained by anxiety related to the medical visit itself. Limitations of the study design are discussed. The method through which risks are conveyed can reduce the psychosocial impact of risk notification.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128347993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The risk of burnout: A dynamic phase model 倦怠风险:一个动态阶段模型

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2000-12-01 DOI: 10.1017/S1357530900000193

P. Rozbowsky, A. Semeraro, S. Cervai, D. Gregori, P. Gabassi

{"title":"The risk of burnout: A dynamic phase model","authors":"P. Rozbowsky, A. Semeraro, S. Cervai, D. Gregori, P. Gabassi","doi":"10.1017/S1357530900000193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530900000193","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this study is to assess the risk of burnout among teachers.The burnout syndrome is a complex phenomenon which has been studied extensively from different perspectives. However, the focus was always on its causes and effects but seldom on the worsening processes. On the contrary, this study starts from a static analysis of the burnout (Golembiewski and Munzenrider 1998) and develops a dynamic model in order to assess the risks of worsening the current degree of burnout.The Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI, Italian validated Ed version) was administered to a sample of 415 Italian teachers across different levels (from primary school to university) together with some questions on socio-demographic variables. Data were submitted to factor analysis (varimax) which suggested a five-factor structure (personal accomplishment, climate, depersonalization, cynicism, emotional exhaustion). The mean values were calculated for both the three Maslach's dimensions and for the five factors and then compared: the latter seemed to provide a finer interpretation of the degree of burnout. Therefore, Golembiewski's eight-phase model was revised and all the possible passages from one phase to another were studied, with the integration of the new five sub-scales. A new phase model was developed, structured of 32 sub-phases which were then appropriately reduced to 16. This new model was used as a dynamic interpretation tool of Golembiewski's phase model. Besides, all the theoretic probabilities were calculated in order to evaluate the risk of worsening.The MBI is used as an assessment tool of the current degree of burnout and the eight-phase model is used to classify the gravity of the situation, therefore it is possible to make a diagnosis of the situation. The development of the 16 sub-phases model might provide a prognosis of the risks of burnout. Further research should be conducted to validate the model.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125705591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risky shifts or shifting risk: African and African-Caribbean women's narratives on delay in seeking help for breast cancer 风险转变或转移风险:非洲和非洲-加勒比妇女关于延迟寻求乳腺癌帮助的叙述

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2000-12-01 DOI: 10.1017/S135753090000020X

J. Littlewood, E. Elias

引用次数: 9

The effectiveness of physician risk management: Potential problems for patient safety 医生风险管理的有效性:患者安全的潜在问题

Risk Decision and Policy Pub Date : 2000-11-06 DOI: 10.1017/S1357530900000181

B. Liang

{"title":"The effectiveness of physician risk management: Potential problems for patient safety","authors":"B. Liang","doi":"10.1017/S1357530900000181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530900000181","url":null,"abstract":"Background. Physician risk management (RM) has been mandated around the world in an effort to reduce pecuniary and nonpecuniary loss associated with avoidable patient injury. However, there has been little empirical RM assessment to determine whether physicians obtain an increased understanding of the law, clinical obligations defined by law, and reduced numbers of injury suits. This study attempts to begin this assessment. Methods. In this study, 210 U.S. primary care physicians were sent a survey requesting demographic information on RM activities, the definition of negligence, and evaluation of 10 patient injury jury verdict case scenarios using a Likert scale. Physicians were first asked to assess the care given by the scenario physician clinically; they were then asked to predict the actual jury verdict. Results. 138 (65.7%) responded. Although physicians participated in a broad array of RM activities, none were postitively associated with overall clinical assessment concordance with the actual jury verdicts. Indeed, over all cases, substantive self-study and RM seminar attendance Conclusion. Standard physician RM efforts may not be effective in promoting patient safety, may increase the risk of patient injury, and may not reduce pecuniary and nonpecuniary costs associated with patient injury.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129441036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6