MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic)最新文献

The Impact of Vaccinations on COVID-19 Case Rates at the State Level 疫苗接种对州一级COVID-19病例率的影响

MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3927364

J. Doti

引用次数: 0

COVID-19 Epidemic Impact on Sri Lanka COVID-19疫情对斯里兰卡的影响

MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2021-08-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3910663

Mohan Madawa Siri Bandara Imbulmalgama

引用次数: 0

Blissful Ignorance: the Value of Information in a Pandemic 幸福的无知:流行病中信息的价值

MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2021-08-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3910487

Keyvan Eslami, H. Lee

{"title":"Blissful Ignorance: the Value of Information in a Pandemic","authors":"Keyvan Eslami, H. Lee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3910487","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3910487","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies how partial information regarding the true number of infected affects optimal mitigation and testing policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. We start by documenting two motivating observations which highlight the value of information: First, an overreaction in mitigation at the onset of the pandemic compared to its later stages; Second, a tendency for what we call \"blissful ignorance,\" where less testing is associated with fewer mitigation measures in place. We show that these can be justified through the lens of optimal policies under partial information. Specifically, we develop an epidemiological model where the true number of infected can be partially inferred from two signals: hospitalization and testing. An egalitarian planner can decide on the degree of mitigation and testing, which affect infection rates and signal noises about the infected. Using the calibrated model, our main results show that the planner is willing to give up 17% of output for testing to eliminate the uncertainty, provided the full enforcement of mitigation. Absent testing, an overreaction of up to 35% in mitigation can partially replace this information role of testing. Finally, when mitigation is not enforceable, the planner optimally remains blissfully ignorant by reducing the number of tests.","PeriodicalId":198802,"journal":{"name":"MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115559192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cable News and COVID-19 Vaccine Compliance 有线电视新闻和COVID-19疫苗合规

MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2021-07-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3890340

M. Pinna, Léo Picard, Christoph Goessmann

{"title":"Cable News and COVID-19 Vaccine Compliance","authors":"M. Pinna, Léo Picard, Christoph Goessmann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3890340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3890340","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 vaccines have already reduced infections and hospitalizations across the globe, yet resistance to vaccination remains strong. This paper investigates the role of cable television news in vaccine skepticism and associated local vaccination rates in the United States. We find that, in the later stages of the vaccine roll-out (starting May 2021), higher local viewership of Fox News Channel has been associated with lower local vaccination rates. We can verify that this association is causal using exogenous geographical variation in the channel lineup. The effect is driven by younger individuals (under 65 years of age), for whom COVID-19 has a low mortality risk. Consistent with changes in beliefs about the effectiveness of the vaccine as a mechanism, we find that Fox News increased reported vaccine hesitancy in local survey responses. We can rule out that the effect is due to differences in partisanship, to local health policies, or to local COVID-19 infections or death rates. The other two major television networks, CNN and MSNBC, have no effect, indicating that messaging matters and that the observed effect on vaccinations is not due the consumption of cable news in general. We also show that there is no historical effect of Fox News on flu vaccination rates, suggesting that the effect is COVID-19-specific and not driven by general skepticism toward vaccines.","PeriodicalId":198802,"journal":{"name":"MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129577120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Economic Diversity and the Propagation of COVID-19: How Vulnerable is Your City? 经济多样性与COVID-19的传播:你的城市有多脆弱?

MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2021-07-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3885307

Jericho McLeod, E. Lopez

引用次数: 0

Social Distancing and COVID-19: Some Evidence at the Municipality Level in Brazil 社交距离与COVID-19:巴西市政一级的一些证据

MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2021-07-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3881417

Marcelo Resende, M. Maciel

引用次数: 1

Could Vaccine Dose Stretching Reduce COVID-19 Deaths? 延长疫苗剂量能减少COVID-19死亡吗?

MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2021-06-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3864485

W. Więcek, A. Ahuja, M. Kremer, Alexandre Simoes Gomes, Christopher M. Snyder, A. Tabarrok, B. Tan

{"title":"Could Vaccine Dose Stretching Reduce COVID-19 Deaths?","authors":"W. Więcek, A. Ahuja, M. Kremer, Alexandre Simoes Gomes, Christopher M. Snyder, A. Tabarrok, B. Tan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3864485","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3864485","url":null,"abstract":"We argue that alternative COVID-19 vaccine dosing regimens could potentially dramatically accelerate global COVID-19 vaccination and reduce mortality, and that the costs of testing these regimens are dwarfed by their potential benefits. We first use the high correlation between neutralizing antibody response and efficacy against disease (Khoury et. al. 2021) to show that half or even quarter doses of some vaccines generate immune responses associated with high vaccine efficacy. We then use an SEIR model to estimate that under these efficacy levels, doubling or quadrupling the rate of vaccination by using fractional doses would dramatically reduce infections and mortality. Since the correlation between immune response and efficacy may not be fully predictive of efficacy with fractional doses, we then use the SEIR model to show that fractional dosing would substantially reduce infections and mortality over a wide range of plausible efficacy levels. Further immunogenicity studies for a range of vaccine and dose combinations could deliver outcomes in weeks and could be conducted with a few hundred healthy volunteers. National regulatory authorities could also decide to test efficacy of fractional dosing in the context of vaccination campaigns based on existing immune response data, as some did for delayed second doses. If efficacy turned out to be high, the approach could be implemented broadly, while if it turned out to be low, downside risk could be limited by administering full doses to those who had received fractional doses. The SEIR model also suggests that delaying second vaccine doses will likely have substantial mortality benefits for multiple, but not all, vaccine-variant combinations, underscoring the importance of ongoing surveillance. Finally, we find that for countries choosing between approved but lower efficacy vaccines available immediately and waiting for mRNA vaccines, using immediately available vaccines typically reduces mortality.","PeriodicalId":198802,"journal":{"name":"MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic)","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132740169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Anomalous Elderly Deaths during Ontario's 2020 Covid Pandemic 安大略省2020年冠状病毒大流行期间的异常老年人死亡

MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2021-06-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3863725

E. Jowett

{"title":"Anomalous Elderly Deaths during Ontario's 2020 Covid Pandemic","authors":"E. Jowett","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3863725","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3863725","url":null,"abstract":"Total deaths in the two elderly age groups in Ontario Canada were analyzed using two approaches to compare pre-Covid deaths with Covid 2020 deaths. The linear trendline of 2014-2019 pre-Covid deaths was used to de-trend the data relative to 2014, including for 2020. 1. Annual averages and standard deviations of the de-trended data showed that the 85+ age deaths in 2020 were within the 99.9% expected range of the preceding years, but the 65-84 group was well outside the 99.9% range. It can be argued that 2020 deaths in the 85+ group are not unusual when a high degree of certainty like 99.9% is selected. However, the 65-84 deaths are excessively high under any reasonable circumstances. Excess deaths were estimated at about +5% for both male and female in the 85+ group, whereas in the younger 65-84 group, males had +8% excess while females had +6% excess. 2. Successive weekly averages and standard deviations were calculated for each year in 2014-2019 and compared to the 2020 weeks. Deaths in the 85+ group were below normal in the first quarter of 2020, rising to a high ‘winter-type’ peak due to the Covid outbreak, followed by a below-normal summer and above-normal fourth quarter. The 65-84 deaths also started out low, but the second quarter Covid peak lingered, and both third and fourth quarters were above normal, leading to the overall high death rate of this group relative to the 85+ group. Influenza had caused a similar anomaly in April 2014, though with an infection rate an order of magnitude lower, deaths were far less extreme than in April 2020.","PeriodicalId":198802,"journal":{"name":"MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125384373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Effect of Domestic Air Travel on the Spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. 国内航空旅行对COVID-19在美国传播的影响

MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2021-02-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3786991

Jeffrey T. Prince, Daniel H. Simon

引用次数: 0

COVID-X

MedRN: Public Health (COVID-19) (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2020-12-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3756721

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

引用次数: 0