Journal of Atmospheric Science Research最新文献_第3页

A Diagnostic Method for Fog Forecasting Using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Outputs 利用数值天气预报(NWP)模式输出的雾预报诊断方法

Journal of Atmospheric Science Research Pub Date : 2022-10-19 DOI: 10.30564/jasr.v5i4.5068

Aditi Singh, R. Maheskumar, G. Iyengar

引用次数: 0

Forage Monitoring and Prediction Model for Early Warning Application over the East of Africa Region 东非地区牧草监测预报预警模型的应用

Journal of Atmospheric Science Research Pub Date : 2022-10-08 DOI: 10.30564/jasr.v5i4.4809

Jully O Ouma, D. Wakjira, Ahmed Amdihun, E. Nyaga, F. Opijah, J. Muthama, Viola Otieno, Eugene Kayijamahe, Solomon Munywa, G. Artan

{"title":"Forage Monitoring and Prediction Model for Early Warning Application over the East of Africa Region","authors":"Jully O Ouma, D. Wakjira, Ahmed Amdihun, E. Nyaga, F. Opijah, J. Muthama, Viola Otieno, Eugene Kayijamahe, Solomon Munywa, G. Artan","doi":"10.30564/jasr.v5i4.4809","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i4.4809","url":null,"abstract":"Rangelands dominate arid and semi-arid lands of the Greater Horn ofAfrica (GHA) region, whereby pastoralism being the primary source oflivelihood. The pastoral livelihood is affected by the seasonal variabilityof pasture and water resources. This research sought to design a grid-basedforage monitoring and prediction model for the cross-border areas of theGHA region. A technique known as Geographically Weighted Regressionwas used in developing the model with monthly rainfall, temperature,soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).Rainfall and soil moisture had a high correlation with NDVI, and thusformed the model development parameters. The model performed wellin predicting the available forage biomass at each grid-cell with March-May and October-December seasons depicting a similar pattern but witha different magnitude in ton/ha. The output is critical for actionable earlywarning over the GHA region’s rangeland areas. It is expected that thismode can be used operationally for forage monitoring and prediction overthe eastern Africa region and further guide the regional, national, sub-national actors and policymakers on issuing advisories before the season.","PeriodicalId":193824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric Science Research","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124743068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

To the Question of the Assessment of Ecological Comfort of the Climate 对气候生态舒适性评价问题的探讨

Journal of Atmospheric Science Research Pub Date : 2022-08-23 DOI: 10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4845

E. Andreeva, S. S. Andreev, A. Parshina

{"title":"To the Question of the Assessment of Ecological Comfort of the Climate","authors":"E. Andreeva, S. S. Andreev, A. Parshina","doi":"10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4845","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the discussion of the advantages of assessing the environmental comfort of the climate, based on the natural features of the climate and the bioclimatic conditions of the territory. The study assessed the ecological comfort of the climate in the city of Taganrog on the basis of the developed original sequence of performing three stages of assessing the totality of bioclimatic indicators with the final calculation of the values of the integral indicator of the bioclimatic comfort of the climate. The results of the assessment showed, according to the average long-term climatic data, the presence of sub-comfortable climates with a tendency to transition to comfortable climate conditions in the warm period of the year. The cold season was distinguished by uncomfortable conditions according to long-term average climatic data. Modeling calculations of the possible risk to the health of city residents in the presence of concentrations of suspended solids in the surface air layer, together with carbon monoxide, exceeding the maximum one-time values by more than 7 times, showed that the development of possible resorptive or carcinogenic effects in these circumstances will occur in 1/3 the population of the city. The prospects for the assessment of the ecological comfort of the climate, which allow in the future to adequately calculate the magnitude of environmental risks to public health caused by pollution of the surface air layer, are shown.","PeriodicalId":193824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric Science Research","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132533849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Evil Couple: Illegal Mining in Water Bodies and Climate Change: A Case Study of Ghana 邪恶的夫妇:非法开采水体和气候变化:加纳的案例研究

Journal of Atmospheric Science Research Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4778

Victor Adjei, Elijah Foh Amaning, Isaac Tettey Adjokatse

引用次数: 0

Experimental Simulation of Red Sprites in a Laboratory 红色精灵在实验室中的实验模拟

Journal of Atmospheric Science Research Pub Date : 2022-08-05 DOI: 10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4858

V. Tarasenko, N. Vinogradov, E. Baksht, D. Sorokin

引用次数: 2

Significant Improvement in Rainfall Forecast over Delhi: Annual and Seasonal Verification 德里地区降雨预报的显著改进:年度和季节验证

Journal of Atmospheric Science Research Pub Date : 2022-07-14 DOI: 10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4769

K. Srivastava

{"title":"Significant Improvement in Rainfall Forecast over Delhi: Annual and Seasonal Verification","authors":"K. Srivastava","doi":"10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4769","url":null,"abstract":"Regional Weather Forecasting Centre (RWFC) New Delhi has the responsibility to issue and disseminate rainfall forecast for Delhi. So it is very important to scientifically verify the rainfall forecast issued by RWFC. In this study rainfall forecast verification of Delhi has been carried out annually and season wise for the period 2011 to 2021. Various statistical parameters such as Percentage Correct (PC), Probability of Detection (POD), Missing Ratio (MR), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), True Skill Statistics (TSS) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) have been calculated for season wise and annually. A forecast is considered to be improved if PC, POD, CSI, TSS and HSS increase and FAR and MR decrease over a period of time. The author can conclude that annual accuracy of forecast has increased significantly over the period of time from 2011 to 2021, as PC, POD, CSI, TSS and HSS increase and FAR and MR decrease over a period of time. Maximum contribution in the improved forecast has observed in transition season (pre-monsoon season followed by post-monsoon, having rainfall activity mainly in association with thunderstorms), when FAR and MR have decreased drastically.","PeriodicalId":193824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric Science Research","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130823484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric Mean Annual Temperature Wavelets Surface Air Layer of Berlin for 1701–2021 柏林地面空气层1701-2021年非对称年平均气温小波

Journal of Atmospheric Science Research Pub Date : 2022-07-08 DOI: 10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4674

P. Mazurkin

{"title":"Asymmetric Mean Annual Temperature Wavelets Surface Air Layer of Berlin for 1701–2021","authors":"P. Mazurkin","doi":"10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4674","url":null,"abstract":"The regularities of the dynamics of the average annual temperature of Berlin from 1701 to 2021 are revealed. A total of 65 wavelets were received. The temperature has a high quantum certainty, and the change in the average annual temperature of Berlin was identified by a model that contains only two components for prediction. The basis of the forecast at 320 years makes it possible to look into the future until the year 2340. The forecast confirms the conclusions made in the CMIP5 report on global warming. With an increase in the number of components in the model up to five, the forecast is possible only until 2060. Therefore, the model with only two components is workable. The trend is characterized by a modified Mandelbrot equation showing exponential growth with a high growth rate of 1.47421. The wave equation also has an amplitude in the form of the Mandelbrot law (in mathematics, the Laplace law, in biology, the Zipf-Pearl law, in econometrics, the Pareto law), when the exponential growth activity is equal to 1. For 1701, the period of oscillation was 2× 60.33333 ≈ 120.7 years. By 2021, the period decreased and became equal to 87.6 years. The trend is such that by 2340 the period of oscillation will decrease to 30.2 years. Such an increase in fluctuations indicates an imbalance in climate disturbances in temperature in Berlin. For Berlin, the last three years are characterized by sharp decreases in the average annual temperature from 11.8 °C to 10.5 °C, i.e. by 12.4% in 2021. Therefore, the forecast is still unstable, as a further decrease in the average annual temperature of Berlin in the near future may change the picture of the forecast.","PeriodicalId":193824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric Science Research","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115256097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

History and Projection of Hydrological Droughts in the Benin Basin of the Niger River (Benin) 尼日尔河(贝宁)贝宁流域水文干旱历史与预测

Journal of Atmospheric Science Research Pub Date : 2022-05-20 DOI: 10.30564/jasr.v5i2.4602

Yarou Halissou, A. Eric, B. I. Eliézer, Obada Ezéchiel, Tore Daniel Bio, Afouda Abel

{"title":"History and Projection of Hydrological Droughts in the Benin Basin of the Niger River (Benin)","authors":"Yarou Halissou, A. Eric, B. I. Eliézer, Obada Ezéchiel, Tore Daniel Bio, Afouda Abel","doi":"10.30564/jasr.v5i2.4602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i2.4602","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of a changing climate, the Beninese Niger River basin has been the focus of several research studies for the quantification, planning, and modeling of water and related resources for sustainable use. This research aims to characterize the historical (1976-2019) and projected (2021- 2050) hydrological drought of the Beninese Niger River basin. The study used daily observations of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, runoff rates and simulations of HIRHAM and REMO RCMs from fifteen (15) rainfall stations installed around the basin. It uses standardized streamflow indices (SDI) at 12-month and 36-month time steps. The results show that the calculated SDI indices show, on average, for all the model scenarios used, chronological trends of increase. These increases are not significant (are of the order of 0.00001 per year). The analysis of the SDI indices shows that, on average, the hydrological droughts in the Beninese basin of the Niger River will increase at 36 months and decrease at 12 months of the SDI. In fact, these small variations of hydrological droughts will be accompanied by the increase of their duration and the decrease of their magnitudes. The droughts detected in the Benin basin of the Niger River during the historical period will continue until 2050 in the same range but with more extended drought lengths. It should be noted that most of the changes observed in the calculated and analyzed indices are not significant.","PeriodicalId":193824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric Science Research","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127362872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pollution of Airborne Fungi in Naturally Ventilated Repositories of the Provincial Historical Archive of Santiago de Cuba (Cuba) 古巴圣地亚哥省历史档案馆自然通风库空气真菌污染研究

Journal of Atmospheric Science Research Pub Date : 2022-05-19 DOI: 10.30564/jasr.v5i2.4536

S. Borrego, A. Molina, Yuneisis Bonne, A. González, Lidiersy Méndez

{"title":"Pollution of Airborne Fungi in Naturally Ventilated Repositories of the Provincial Historical Archive of Santiago de Cuba (Cuba)","authors":"S. Borrego, A. Molina, Yuneisis Bonne, A. González, Lidiersy Méndez","doi":"10.30564/jasr.v5i2.4536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i2.4536","url":null,"abstract":"Environmental fungi can damage the documentary heritage conserved in archives and affect the personnel’s health if their concentrations, thermohygrometric parameters and ventilation conditions are not adequate, problems that can be accentuated by Climate Change. The aims of this work were to identify and to characterize the airborne fungal pollution of naturally ventilated repositories in the Provincial Historical Archive of Santiago de Cuba and predict the risk that these fungi pose to the staff’s health. Indoor air of three repositories of this archive and the outdoor air were sampled in an occasion every time in 2015, 2016 and 2017 using a SAS sampler. The obtained fungal concentrations varied from 135.6 CFU/m3 to 421.1 CFU/m3 and the indoor/outdoor ratios fluctuated from 0.7 to 4.2, evidencing a variable environmental quality over time, but in the third sampling the repositories environments showed good quality. Aspergillus and Cladosporium were the predominant genera in these environments. A. flavus was a prevailed species in indoor air, while A. niger and Cl. cladosporioides were the species that showed the greatest similarities with the outdoor air. Coremiella and Talaromyces genera as well as the species Aspergillus uvarum, Alternaria ricini and Cladosporium staurophorum were the first findings for environments of Cuban archives. Xerophilic species (A. flavus, A. niger, A. ochraceus, A. ustus) indicators of moisture problems in the repositories were detected; they are also opportunistic pathogens and toxigenic species but their concentrations were higher than the recommended, demonstrating the potential risk to which the archive personnel is exposed in a circumstantial way.","PeriodicalId":193824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric Science Research","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126694914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Wave Dynamics of the Average Annual Temperature Surface Air Layer New Delhi for 1931-2021 1931-2021年新德里地面空气层年平均温度的波动动力学

Journal of Atmospheric Science Research Pub Date : 2022-05-17 DOI: 10.30564/jasr.v5i2.4639

Peter Matveevich

{"title":"Wave Dynamics of the Average Annual Temperature Surface Air Layer New Delhi for 1931-2021","authors":"Peter Matveevich","doi":"10.30564/jasr.v5i2.4639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i2.4639","url":null,"abstract":"The identification method revealed asymmetric fluctuations in the dynamics of the average annual temperature in New Delhi from 1931 to 2021, that is, for 90 years. An analysis of the wave patterns of climate until 2110 was carried out. Geotechnology of the Himalayan passage was proposed to reduce heat waves in India and China. Formulas containing four and 18 fluctuations were adopted for forecasting. Models give an increase in the heat wave from 2021, which is the fourth component. As a result, the landscape of the Himalayan mountains and the deserts of Thar and Takla Makan create a regional climate system that is original for the land of the Earth. In this system, oscillatory temperature adaptation in the future will be several times greater than the global warming rate predicted in the IPCC CMIP5 report. Between 2001 and 2019 the largest temperature increase wave maximum was observed in New Delhi at 0.65 °C in 2012-2013. In the sixth phase from 2036 to 2049, an ecological catastrophe will break out in New Delhi. According to calculations, the maximum value of the average annual temperature in New Delhi was 25.82 °C in 2017. Since then, the cooling has continued for four years, which will continue until 2028. The temperature will drop to 22.54 °C due to a change in solar activity by 3.28 °C. Then by 2044, the average annual temperature in New Delhi will increase to 31.03 °C, or the increment will be 31.03 – 22.54 = 8.49 °C. In 2035, the climate in New Delhi will become hotter compared to 2021. The increase in the heat wave is noticeable. From 1931 to 2049 there will be six half-periods of cooling and warming: 1) 23; 2) 23; 3) 20; 4) 18; 5) 15; 6) 13 years old. The most dangerous is the sixth stage. It is proposed at the fifth stage for 15 years until 2037 in northern India to the Takla Makan desert in China to build a passage up to 350 km long, 10 km-20 km wide and at least 4.5 km high.","PeriodicalId":193824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric Science Research","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114410677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3