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Corporates’ Dependence on Banks: The Impact of ECB Corporate Sector Purchases 企业对银行的依赖:欧洲央行企业部门购买的影响
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3530896
J. Bats
{"title":"Corporates’ Dependence on Banks: The Impact of ECB Corporate Sector Purchases","authors":"J. Bats","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3530896","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3530896","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates whether ECB corporate sector purchases impact the funding structure of non-financial corporates. Regression models are estimated using a unique microdata panel, combining data on all Eurosystem corporate sector purchases and individual balance sheets of 672 non-financial corporations headquartered in the euro area with access to capital markets. The findings indicate that ECB purchases of corporate bonds reduce the dependence on bank financing of corporates whose debt is purchased. The effects vary according to corporates' interest paid, financial expenses and price-to-book ratio. In addition, this paper shows that the relationship between central bank purchases and corporates' dependence on bank financing is non-linear. The downward effect on bank dependence is largest for those corporates of which most debt is purchased under the CSPP, relative to their total stock of debt.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126055279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Variantes analytiques du modèle de prévision et simulation de la Banque de France pour la France (FR-BDF) (Basic Model Elasticities of the Macroeconomic Model for France of the Banque de France (FR-BDF)) 法国央行(FR-BDF)法国宏观经济模型的基本模型弹性(FR-BDF)
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3523646
Pierre Aldama, J. Ouvrard
{"title":"Variantes analytiques du modèle de prévision et simulation de la Banque de France pour la France (FR-BDF) (Basic Model Elasticities of the Macroeconomic Model for France of the Banque de France (FR-BDF))","authors":"Pierre Aldama, J. Ouvrard","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3523646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3523646","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a set of Basic Model Elasticities (BMEs) of the Banque de France's new macroeconomic model for France, FR-BDF. A detailed description of the model is provided in Lemoine et al (2019) and this \"BMEs workbook\" is designed as a tool for practitioners of economic policy forecasting or analysis in France. It describes the model's response to a number of shocks grouped into three families: external shocks (oil prices, world demand, competitors’ prices), monetary and financial shocks (exchange rates, short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates, housing prices), public finance shocks (public consumption, public investment, social benefits, direct taxes, social contributions) and structural shocks (labor efficiency, labor force, equilibrium unemployment rate). These different BMEs also illustrate the convergence properties of the model, in particular the importance of monetary and financial channels and the link between the real and nominal spheres in the transmission and absorption of shocks.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130326568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Does Economic Growth, Absolute or Relative Income Buy Well-Being? A Statistical Appraisal of the Easterlin Paradox 经济增长、绝对收入或相对收入能买到幸福吗?伊斯特林悖论的统计评价
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3509354
Ryan J. Bain
{"title":"Does Economic Growth, Absolute or Relative Income Buy Well-Being? A Statistical Appraisal of the Easterlin Paradox","authors":"Ryan J. Bain","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3509354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3509354","url":null,"abstract":"This paper tests the empirical validity of Easterlin’s paradox, the absolute and relative income theorems which underpin it, and investigates associations between subjective well-being (SWB), economic growth and the factors which shape economic development via a series of multilevel mixed-effects regression models. Results show no evidence for the existence of the Easterlin Paradox and are concurrent across multiple measures of SWB – happiness and life satisfaction. The analysis suggests richer countries have greater life satisfaction and are happier than poorer countries. Moreover, both SWB measures are positively correlated with increasing economic growth which goes hand in hand with higher income inequality though the economic significance of this increasing economic development in enhancing life satisfaction is around 3 times greater than it is for happiness. However, minimising economic inequality safeguards the happiness and life satisfaction gains induced by growth more in richer than in poorer countries. Additionally, happiness levels are slightly elevated by the inflation rises accompanying growth despite increasing happiness and economic development in countries over time being conditioned by low inflation. At the individual level, non-linear relationships between income and SWB indicate that the role absolute income plays in governing happiness and life satisfaction is determined by people’s relative incomes.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"55 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123629414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A Three-Country Macroeconomic Model for Portugal 葡萄牙的三国宏观经济模型
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513519241.001
A. Pienkowski
{"title":"A Three-Country Macroeconomic Model for Portugal","authors":"A. Pienkowski","doi":"10.5089/9781513519241.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513519241.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper outlines a simple three-country macroeconomic model designed to focus on the transmission of external shocks to Portugal. Building on the framework developed by Berg et al (2006), this model differentiates between shocks originating from both inside and outside the euro area, as well as domestic shocks, each of which have different implications for Portugal. This framework is also used to consider the dynamics of the Portuguese economy over recent decades. The model, which is designed to guide forecasts and undertake simulations, can easily be modified for use in other small euro area countries.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130778235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Autonomous Factor Forecast Quality: The Case of the Eurosystem 自主因素预测质量:以欧元体系为例
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513522005.001
Romain M Veyrune, Shaoyu Guo
{"title":"Autonomous Factor Forecast Quality: The Case of the Eurosystem","authors":"Romain M Veyrune, Shaoyu Guo","doi":"10.5089/9781513522005.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513522005.001","url":null,"abstract":"The publication of liquidity forecasts can be understood as part of central banks’ push toward greater transparency regarding monetary policy implementation. However, the advantages of transparency can only be realized if the information provided is accurate and reliable. This paper (1) provides an overview of the international practice of publishing the forecasts; (2) proposes and implements a framework to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of forecasts using the long history of Eurosystem forecasts as a case study; and (3) analyzes the Eurosystem forecast errors to determine the factors influencing forecast quality. A supporting factor for a high-quality forecast is the contemporaneousness of the information used, whereas money market segmentation can weigh on forecast quality.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126117207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wage Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Puzzle? 欧洲的工资增长和通货膨胀:一个谜?
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513521275.001
Vizhdan Boranova, Raju Huidrom, Sylwia Nowak, P. Topalova, V. Tulin, Richard Varghese
{"title":"Wage Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Puzzle?","authors":"Vizhdan Boranova, Raju Huidrom, Sylwia Nowak, P. Topalova, V. Tulin, Richard Varghese","doi":"10.5089/9781513521275.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513521275.001","url":null,"abstract":"Wages have been rising faster than productivity in many European countries for the past few years, yet signs of underlying consumer price pressures remain limited. To shed light on this puzzle, this paper examines the historical link between wage growth and inflation in Europe and factors that influence the strength of the passthrough from labor costs to prices. Historically, wage growth has led to higher inflation, but the impact has weakened since 2009. Empirical analysis suggests that the passthrough from wage growth to inflation is significantly lower in periods of subdued inflation and inflation expectations, greater competitive pressures, and robust corporate profitability. Thus the recent pickup in wage growth is likely to have a more muted impact on inflation than in the past.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117063503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
The Global Financial Cycle and US Monetary Policy in an Interconnected World 互联世界中的全球金融周期和美国货币政策
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3497488
S. Dées, A. Galesi
{"title":"The Global Financial Cycle and US Monetary Policy in an Interconnected World","authors":"S. Dées, A. Galesi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3497488","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3497488","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the international spillovers of US monetary policy with a large-scale global VAR which models the world economy as a network of interdependent countries. An expansionary US monetary policy shock contributes to the emergence of a Global Financial Cycle, which boosts macroeconomic activity worldwide. We also find that economies with floating exchange rate regimes are not fully insulated from US monetary policy shocks and, even though they appear to be relatively less affected by the shocks, the differences in responses across exchange rate regimes are not statistically significant. The role of US monetary policy in driving these macrofinancial spillovers gets even reinforced by the complex network of interactions across countries, to the extent that network effects roughly double the direct impacts of US monetary policy surprises on international equity prices, capital flows, and global growth. This amplification increases as countries get more globally integrated over time, suggesting that the evolving network is an important driver for the increasing role of US monetary policy in shaping the Global Financial Cycle.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126203697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 75
The Low Inflation 'Puzzle' and Financial Crises 低通胀“谜”与金融危机
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3491863
D. Carr
{"title":"The Low Inflation 'Puzzle' and Financial Crises","authors":"D. Carr","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3491863","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3491863","url":null,"abstract":"Low and unresponsive inflation has been termed a “puzzle.” The paper describes a formula for which these conditions have been a prediction since early 2016.<br><br>The Money Value Formula analyzes the unit value of a currency solely as a function of long lags of monetary aggregates. The Formula produces a significant statistical explanation for virtually all variability of forward long-term inflation. Its U.S. inflation forecasts are comparable to recognized leaders in accuracy with potential applicability to international economies as well.<br><br>Inflation Elasticity, the responsiveness of inflation to monetary stimulus, is derived from the Formula and becomes increasingly inelastic at a geometric rate, explaining central banks’ difficulty attaining targets. The onset of financial crises in four major advanced economies is linked to unanticipated real monetary expansion as economies transition from elastic to inelastic inflation with disinflation spurring unsustainable credit growth for central banks, banking systems, and entire economies.<br>","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125966297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Behavioral Economics of Currency Unions: Economic Integration and Monetary Policy 货币联盟的行为经济学:经济一体化与货币政策
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-11-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3169793
A. Bertasiute, D. Massaro, Matthias Weber
{"title":"The Behavioral Economics of Currency Unions: Economic Integration and Monetary Policy","authors":"A. Bertasiute, D. Massaro, Matthias Weber","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3169793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3169793","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze different behavioral models of expectation formation in a multi-country New Keynesian currency union model. Our analyses yield the following robust results. First, economic integration is of crucial importance for the stability of the economic dynamics in a currency union. Second, when the economic dynamics are unstable, more activist monetary policy does not lead to stable economic dynamics. These findings have natural counterparts in the rational expectations version of the model: there, economic integration is crucial for the determinacy of the equilibrium and when the equilibrium is indeterminate, more activist monetary policy does not lead to a determinate equilibrium. In an application to euro area data, we find that the behavioral macroeconomic model outperforms its rational counterpart in terms of prediction performance.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115347894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 23
Did Bank Lending Stifle Innovation in Europe During the Great Recession? 大衰退期间，银行贷款扼杀了欧洲的创新吗?
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3492533
Oana Peia, Davide Romelli
{"title":"Did Bank Lending Stifle Innovation in Europe During the Great Recession?","authors":"Oana Peia, Davide Romelli","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3492533","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3492533","url":null,"abstract":"Using the 2008-09 Global Financial crisis and the 2012 Euro area sovereign debt crisis as natural experiments, we investigate the effects of contractions in credit supply on R&D spending in a large sample of European firms. Our identification strategy exploits differences in financial constraints across firms, as well as the cross-industry variation in dependence on external finance, to identify a causal effect of bank credit supply on firm investment in innovation. We show that firms that are more likely financially constrained, in industries more dependent on external finance, have a disproportionally lower growth rate of R&D spending, as well as lower R&D intensity and share of R&D investment in total investment during periods of tight credit supply. These results are robust to different proxies of financial constraints, model specifications and fixed-effects identification strategies.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129423286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 19
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