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European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal最新文献

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Getting Closer or Falling Apart? Euro Countries After the Euro Crisis 渐行渐近还是渐行渐远?欧元危机后的欧元区国家
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3868813
M. Bordignon, Nicolò Gatti, M. Onorato
{"title":"Getting Closer or Falling Apart? Euro Countries After the Euro Crisis","authors":"M. Bordignon, Nicolò Gatti, M. Onorato","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3868813","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3868813","url":null,"abstract":"We study convergence and divergence dynamics in a sample of EMU countries by assembling an extensive dataset that contains information on public spending and policy outcomes in a variety of areas of government intervention including education, health, and civil justice from the early 1990s. We also focus on other important determinants of a country’s economic performance such as the level of regulation of product and labor markets, as well as the trust in political institutions, quality of governance and inequality. Results show that despite divergent economic growth in the Euro periphery countries after the 2011-13 Euro crisis, the quality of services and level of regulation did not deteriorate or indeed improved, increasing convergence with the core Euro countries. However, the debt crisis dramatically worsened citizens’ perceptions of quality of governance as well as the level of social trust. The very different approach followed with the COVID crisis might have mitigated the problem, but the Euro project has still shaky foundations. This calls in question its future political viability and asks for reform.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134527826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Optimal Robust Monetary Policy with Parameters and Output Gap Uncertainty 具有参数和产出缺口不确定性的最优稳健货币政策
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2021-06-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3891590
Adriana Grasso, Guido Traficante
{"title":"Optimal Robust Monetary Policy with Parameters and Output Gap Uncertainty","authors":"Adriana Grasso, Guido Traficante","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3891590","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3891590","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies optimal robust monetary policy when the central bank imperfectly observes potential output and has Knightian uncertainty about the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the slope of the Phillips curve. The literature on optimal robust monetary policy has focused on either imperfect observability of some variables or on parameter uncertainty. We characterize robust monetary policy analytically under the two types of uncertainty and show that in general they call for a more aggressive reaction of monetary policy compared with the certainty case.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"29 14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125789900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging 好潮……货币过度增长、通货膨胀和人口老龄化
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2021-06-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3871920
Joseph Kopecky
{"title":"Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging","authors":"Joseph Kopecky","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3871920","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3871920","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 What determines the strength of the relationship between money growth and inflation? A large literature suggests that it has weakened since the 1980s, without a definitive explanation of the cause. I explore how population age structure explains changes in the pass through of money growth rates to inflation. I show that the quantity theory of money holds over long time horizons, with sizable estimates of the impact of money growth on inflation in the short to medium term. Various measures of population age structure have significant impact on the strength of this relationship. These demographics account for an increase in the transmission of money growth to prices in the 1970s and a weakening throughout the great moderation. The baby boomer cohort, now in the age groups around retirement, may exert upward pressure on this money transmission to prices at present, with ambiguous implications in the future as low fertility and rising longevity persist.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116902349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Place Based Policies with Local Voting: Lessons From the EU Cohesion Policy 基于地方投票的地方政策:来自欧盟凝聚力政策的教训
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3866098
L. D'Amico
{"title":"Place Based Policies with Local Voting: Lessons From the EU Cohesion Policy","authors":"L. D'Amico","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3866098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3866098","url":null,"abstract":"I study place based policies under local political economy constraints, asking whether transfers across regions can foster regional convergence. I show that, if local workers can vote over the within-region allocation of the transfers, these may be spent unproductively and be ineffective in supporting growth—especially where growth is most needed. Due to migration responses to transfers, they may even have unintended consequences and be harmful for economic growth in poorer regions. These conclusions follow even though voters are assumed to be fully sophisticated and to anticipate the general equilibrium consequences of the policy. Using data on the EU Cohesion Policy in 2007–13, I show that, in regions with many low skilled workers, funds are significantly less likely to be invested in technological development, innovation, and research. In line with the theory, this occurs only when regional authorities are among the managers of the funds, but not when these are managed by national authorities, who do not cater to local voters.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"2007 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131393732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Convergence in ASEAN 东盟趋同
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2021-05-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3855485
Chang Yee Kwan, Issam Malki
{"title":"Convergence in ASEAN","authors":"Chang Yee Kwan, Issam Malki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3855485","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3855485","url":null,"abstract":"We examine and establish the likelihood of convergence among the ten member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Using a novel a non-linear, time-varying factor convergence estimation methodology, we find that overall income convergence is already ongoing among ASEAN members. But potential remains for convergence clubs which converge at different speeds to a common steady-state income level to emerge. Likely counterintuitively, our main finding is that the existing income differences observed among ASEAN member countries are transitory than deterministic. We discuss what our results entail for policy and argue that further examination into the type of convergence dynamics and the extent of risk-sharing is necessary to better our understanding about convergence in ASEAN and in general.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125718266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Economic Support during the COVID Crisis. Quantitative Easing and Lending Support Schemes in the UK COVID危机期间的经济支持。英国的量化宽松和贷款支持计划
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2021-04-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3831967
Mahmoud Fatouh, S. Giansante, S. Ongena
{"title":"Economic Support during the COVID Crisis. Quantitative Easing and Lending Support Schemes in the UK","authors":"Mahmoud Fatouh, S. Giansante, S. Ongena","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3831967","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3831967","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate how UK bank business lending responded to the simultaneous use of quantitative easing, leverage ratio capital requirements, and government COVID lending support schemes. We find no evidence that the Brexit wave increased lending to nonfinancial businesses, compared to the previous waves, except for QE-banks subject to the UK leverage ratio, suggesting that the ratio incentivised QE-banks to lend to businesses. The government schemes helped expand lending especially to SMEs post the COVID wave, indicating that complementing QE with other credit easing programmes can reinforce its impact on lending to the real economy. During COVID-stress, changes to the UK leverage ratio supported better market-making in securities markets, and additional QE liquidity boosted stronger repo market intermediation.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133436536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Methodological Issues in the Estimation of Current Account Imbalances 估算经常账户失衡的方法问题
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2021-04-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3852292
Valerio Della Corte, Claire Giordano
{"title":"Methodological Issues in the Estimation of Current Account Imbalances","authors":"Valerio Della Corte, Claire Giordano","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3852292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3852292","url":null,"abstract":"The study outlines the main challenges when setting up a “current account (CA) model” in order to measure external imbalances. This model is a reduced-form relationship between the CA balance and a set of CA fundamental and policy drivers, from which a CA “norm” may be derived and against which the actual CA balance is appraised. After having formally outlined a standard CA model similar to those developed by the main international institutions, the paper raises several concerns in CA modelling, amongst which the measurement and selection of both the dependent and explanatory variables and some technical issues in the estimation procedure. Recent trends affecting the CA balance, such as the expansion of global firms and the rise in corporate saving, as well as the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, are also discussed. The paper does not prescribe fully-fledged solutions to the manifold issues discussed, but rather aims to raise awareness of the latter, as well to provide some hints on how to tackle at least some of these challenges.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"103-105 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130551257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Partisan Depositor Responses to a Currency Shock 党派存款人对货币冲击的反应
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2021-04-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3820498
Xiangyang Gao, Chen Lin, Vesa Pursiainen, Yuchen Xu
{"title":"Partisan Depositor Responses to a Currency Shock","authors":"Xiangyang Gao, Chen Lin, Vesa Pursiainen, Yuchen Xu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3820498","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3820498","url":null,"abstract":"Depositor responses to a large currency shock vary depending on political views. Triggered by a combination of economic policies and a geopolitical conflict with the U.S., the Turkish lira depreciated 14% against the U.S. dollar on August 10, 2018. Using unique depositor-level micro data from a Turkish bank, we find that households significantly increase their share of deposits held in foreign currency after the currency shock, and the shift to FX is most pronounced in areas with low support for president Erdogan, while people in areas with high support are significantly less likely to move from lira to FX. These shifts to FX persist long after the shock, despite the lira regaining much of its lost value. The change in depositor currency preferences is associated with an increase in foreign-currency lending and increasing currency mismatches on Turkish banks' balance sheets, which translate into differences in bank profitability.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122409466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital Euro and ECB Powers 数字欧元和欧洲央行的权力
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2021-03-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3807855
Seraina N. Grunewald, Corinne Zellweger-Gutknecht, B. Geva
{"title":"Digital Euro and ECB Powers","authors":"Seraina N. Grunewald, Corinne Zellweger-Gutknecht, B. Geva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3807855","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3807855","url":null,"abstract":"The use of cash in the euro area is declining. Accordingly, the European Central Bank is exploring options for the design of a digital euro as a form of central bank money available to the public. This article addresses the key question of whether the Eurosystem is empowered to issue a digital euro and, if so, in what form. Based on a historical, teleological, and systematic interpretation, it argues that Article 128(1) TFEU serves as both a source of competence for the Eurosystem to issue a digital euro and a limitation to that competence. The Eurosystem’s powers are necessarily exclusive and must prevail over the remaining competence of Member States to issue tangible coins on the basis of Article 128(2) TFEU. The article also addresses whether a digital euro would and should possess legal tender status, referring to recent case law in the field.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124089350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Inequality in Productivity: Geography and Finance of Leaders and Laggards in Italy 生产率的不平等:意大利领先者和落后者的地理和金融
European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3807839
G. B. Navaretti, A. Rosso
{"title":"Inequality in Productivity: Geography and Finance of Leaders and Laggards in Italy","authors":"G. B. Navaretti, A. Rosso","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3807839","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3807839","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the geography of productivity leaders and laggards in the population of Italian joint stock manufacturing companies between 2007 and 2017 and analyse how far such patterns can be related to their financial structure and the provision of financial services in the Italian provinces. To do so we exploit the reform of the Italian banking system in the mid-Nineties as an exogenous shock on the structure of local banking markets and examine whether this shock affects productivity patterns at the firm level. We find a robust descriptive evidence of a widening of the leader-laggard gaps, with a very sizeable productivity divide between the North and the South of the country. Leaders are concentrated in the North. Leaders, especially in the North are also more likely to have access to capital markets. Firms in the South, instead, also those at the frontier, are more reliant on bank lending. The liberalization of the banking market in the mid 90s and the growth of joint stock banks at the provincial level positively affected firms’ productivity outcomes, possibly through an improvement of firms’ financial structure. We also use a firm specific measure of core-periphery based on distance from airport hubs and find that the likelihood of activating a virtuous capital market productivity link declines with distance from core areas.","PeriodicalId":191513,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Macroeconomics & Monetary Economics eJournal","volume":"150 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133907428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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