{"title":"Saudi Financial Structure and Economic Growth: A Macroeconometric Approach","authors":"M. Ageli, Shatha Mousa Zaidan","doi":"10.5539/IJEF.V5N3P30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5539/IJEF.V5N3P30","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the nexus between financial sector development and economic growth in the Saudi economy over the period 1970-2012 by using four alternative proxies for financial development and several techniques including unit root tests, the co-integration test, the Granger Causality Test, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We used time series econometrics techniques to examine the causal relationship between financial sector development and economic growth in the Saudi economy. The results obtained from the analyses show that there is a positive relationship between financial sector development and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The development of the financial system will thus have a positive impact on the growth of the Saudi economy.","PeriodicalId":191102,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Time-Series Models (Multiple) (Topic)","volume":"75 9-11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134362810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evaluating the Accuracy of Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions","authors":"Todd E. Clark, Michael W. McCracken","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2226014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2226014","url":null,"abstract":"This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point and density forecasts in the context of forecasts made by Vector Autoregressions. Specific emphasis is placed on highlighting those parts of the existing literature that are applicable to direct multi-step forecasts and those parts that are applicable to iterated multi-step forecasts. This literature includes advancements in the evaluation of forecasts in population (based on true, unknown model coefficients) and the evaluation of forecasts in the finite sample (based on estimated model coefficients). The paper then examines in Monte Carlo experiments the finite-sample properties of some tests of equal forecast accuracy, focusing on the comparison of VAR forecasts to AR forecasts. These experiments show the tests to behave as should be expected given the theory. For example, using critical values obtained by bootstrap methods, tests of equal accuracy in population have empirical size about equal to nominal size.","PeriodicalId":191102,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Time-Series Models (Multiple) (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122609707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Efficient Gibbs Sampling for Markov Switching GARCH Models","authors":"Monica Billio, R. Casarin, Anthony Osuntuyi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2198837","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2198837","url":null,"abstract":"Efficient simulation techniques for Bayesian inference on Markov-switching (MS) GARCH models are developed. Different multi-move sampling techniques for Markov switching state space models are discussed with particular attention to MS-GARCH models. The multi-move sampling strategy is based on the Forward Filtering Backward Sampling (FFBS) approach applied to auxiliary MS-GARCH models. A unified framework for MS-GARCH approximation is developed and this not only encompasses the considered specifications, but provides an avenue to generate new variants of MS-GARCH auxiliary models. The use of multi-point samplers, such as the multiple-try Metropolis and the multiple-trial metropolized independent sampler, in combination with FFBS, is considered in order to reduce the correlation between successive iterates and to avoid getting trapped by local modes of the target distribution. Antithetic sampling within the FFBS is also suggested to further improve the sampler's efficiency. The simulation study indicates that the multi-point and multi-move strategies can be more efficient than other MCMC schemes, especially when the MS-GARCH is not strongly persistent. Finally, an empirical application to financial data shows the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed estimation procedure.","PeriodicalId":191102,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Time-Series Models (Multiple) (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128009509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Role of Initial Values in Nonstationary Fractional Time Series Models","authors":"S. Johansen, M. Nielsen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2175574","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2175574","url":null,"abstract":"We consider the nonstationary fractional model $Delta^{d}X_{t}=varepsilon _{t}$ with $varepsilon_{t}$ i.i.d.$(0,sigma^{2})$ and $d>1/2$. We derive an analytical expression for the main term of the asymptotic bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of $d$ conditional on initial values, and we discuss the role of the initial values for the bias. The results are partially extended to other fractional models, and three different applications of the theoretical results are given.","PeriodicalId":191102,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Time-Series Models (Multiple) (Topic)","volume":"2002 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117024674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis: Trygve Haavelmo and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression","authors":"K. Hoover, K. Juselius","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2171700","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2171700","url":null,"abstract":"The paper provides a careful, analytical account of Trygve Haavelmo's unsystematic, but important, use of the analogy between controlled experiments common in the natural sciences and econometric techniques. The experimental analogy forms the linchpin of the methodology for passive observation that he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR scenario analysis can be seen as a clear example of Haavelmo's 'experimental' approach; and, in turn, it can be shown to extend and develop Haavelmo's methodology and to address issues that Haavelmo regarded as unresolved.","PeriodicalId":191102,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Time-Series Models (Multiple) (Topic)","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115939541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Babak Mahdavi-Damghani, Daniella Welch Welch, Ciaran O'Malley, Stephen Knights
{"title":"The Misleading Value of Measured Correlation","authors":"Babak Mahdavi-Damghani, Daniella Welch Welch, Ciaran O'Malley, Stephen Knights","doi":"10.1002/WILM.10167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/WILM.10167","url":null,"abstract":"Within the framework of the financial industry, when representing relationships between assets, correlation is typically used. However, academics have long since questioned this method due to the plethora of issues that plague it. Indeed, it is thought that cointegration is a natural replacement in some of the cases as it is able to represent the physical reality of these assets better. However, despite this general academic consensus, financial practitioners refuse to accept cointegration as a better tool, or even the lesser of two evils. This technical report attempts to explain this bias, specifically focusing on the various consequences of model selection considering the new and challenging regulatory environment and suggests a practical replacement hybrid alternative to both cointegration and correlation.","PeriodicalId":191102,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Time-Series Models (Multiple) (Topic)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114216556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimation of the Long-Memory Stochastic Volatility Model Parameters that is Robust to Level Shifts and Deterministic Trends","authors":"Adam Mccloskey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2171913","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2171913","url":null,"abstract":"I provide conditions under which the trimmed FDQML estimator, advanced by McCloskey (2010) in the context of fully parametric short-memory models, can be used to estimate the long-memory stochastic volatility model parameters in the presence of additive low-frequency contamination in log-squared returns. The types of lowfrequency contamination covered include level shifts as well as deterministic trends. I establish consistency and asymptotic normality in the presence or absence of such low-frequency contamination under certain conditions on the growth rate of the trimming parameter. I also provide theoretical guidance on the choice of trimming parameter by heuristically obtaining its asymptotic MSE-optimal rate under certain types of lowfrequency contamination. A simulation study examines the finite sample properties of the robust estimator, showing substantial gains from its use in the presence of level shifts. The finite sample analysis also explores how different levels of trimming affect the parameter estimates in the presence and absence of low-frequency contamination and long-memory.","PeriodicalId":191102,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Time-Series Models (Multiple) (Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125381844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles","authors":"P. Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes, M. Raissi","doi":"10.5089/9781475581645.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475581645.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.","PeriodicalId":191102,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Time-Series Models (Multiple) (Topic)","volume":"305 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129654554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Simplified Approach to Parameter Estimation and Selection of Sparse, Mean Reverting Portfolios","authors":"N. Fogarasi, J. Levendovszky","doi":"10.3311/PPEE.7075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3311/PPEE.7075","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we study the problem of finding sparse, mean reverting portfolios in multivariate time series. This can be applied to developing profitable convergence trading strategies by identifying portfolios which can be traded advantageously when their prices di er from their identified long-term mean. Assuming that the underlying assets follow a VAR(1) process, we propose simplified, dense parameter estimation techniques which also provide a goodness of model fit measure based on historical data. Using these dense estimated parameters, we describe an exhaustive method to select an optimal sparse mean-reverting portfolio which can be used as a benchmark to evaluate faster, heuristic methods such as greedy search. We also present a simple and very fast heuristic to solve the same problem, based on eigenvector truncation. We observe that convergence trading using these portfolio selection methods is able to generate profits on historical financial time series.","PeriodicalId":191102,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Time-Series Models (Multiple) (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121775549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Improved Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration Rank in the VAR Model","authors":"H. Boswijk, Michael Jansson, M. Nielsen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2150180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2150180","url":null,"abstract":"We suggest improved tests for cointegration rank in the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and develop asymptotic distribution theory and local power results. The tests are (quasi-)likelihood ratio tests based on a Gaussian likelihood, but of course the asymptotic results apply more generally. The power gains relative to existing tests are due to two factors. First, instead of basing our tests on the conditional (with respect to the initial observations) likelihood, we follow the recent unit root literature and base our tests on the full likelihood as in, e.g., Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996). Secondly, our tests incorporate a ?sign?restriction which generalizes the one-sided unit root test. We show that the asymptotic local power of the proposed tests dominates that of existing cointegration rank tests.","PeriodicalId":191102,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Time-Series Models (Multiple) (Topic)","volume":"255 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114416644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}