Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences最新文献_第10页

Optimal probabilistic placement of facilities using a surrogate model for 3D tsunami simulations 使用替代模型进行三维海啸模拟的设施最佳概率布局

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023

K. Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, S. Takase, Y. Otake, M. Motley, A. Suppasri, K. Terada

{"title":"Optimal probabilistic placement of facilities using a surrogate model for 3D tsunami simulations","authors":"K. Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, S. Takase, Y. Otake, M. Motley, A. Suppasri, K. Terada","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This study proposes a framework for utilizing results obtained from advanced numerical simulations and performing probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for investigating optimal facility placement. A set of numerical simulations of the tsunami off the Pacific coast caused by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake are performed considering uncertainties in fault parameters. Both inundation depths and tsunami forces acting on buildings are numerically simulated and defined as tsunami hazard indices. Proper orthogonal decomposition is then applied to numerical results for extracting characteristic spatial modes, which can be used to construct surrogate models. Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs) were performed at a low computational cost using surrogate models. The optimal placement of facilities was probabilistically investigated with the help of genetic algorithms using the MCS results along with the concept of system failure probability. The results indicate that the proposed framework allows determining the optimal placement of facilities by applying different strategies at low computational costs while effectively reflecting the results of advanced tsunami simulations.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49588428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia 哥伦比亚萨巴纳森特罗省住宅楼的地震风险情景

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023

Dirsa Feliciano, O. Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, D. Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, Juan Camilo Gomez- Zapata

{"title":"Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia","authors":"Dirsa Feliciano, O. Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, D. Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, Juan Camilo Gomez- Zapata","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Colombia is in one of the most active seismic zones on\u0000Earth, where the Nazca, Caribbean, and South American plates converge.\u0000Approximately 83 % of the national population lives in intermediate to\u0000high seismic hazard zones, and a significant part of the country's building\u0000inventory dates from before the nation's first seismic design code (1984).\u0000At present, seismic risk scenarios are available for the major cities of the country, but there is still a need to undertake such studies in other\u0000regions. This paper presents a seismic risk scenario for the Sabana\u0000Centro province, an intermediate hazard zone located close to the\u0000country's capital. An exposure model was created combining information from\u0000the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, surveys, and the national\u0000census. Fragility and vulnerability curves were assigned to the building\u0000types of the region. A hazard model was developed for the region and\u000018 earthquake scenarios with a return period of 475 years were\u0000simulated using the OpenQuake (OQ) hazard and risk assessment tool to\u0000estimate damage and economic losses. In addition, a social vulnerability\u0000index (SVI) based on demographic information was used to assess the direct\u0000economic loss in terms of replacement costs. The results show that 10 % of all buildings considered in the region would experience collapse, and 7 % would suffer severe damage. Losses account for 14 % of the total replacement cost of the buildings and represent 21 % of the annual gross domestic product (GDP) of the region.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46900794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Enabling dynamic modelling of coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographs 通过定义风暴潮过程线实现沿海洪水的动态建模

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023

J. Dullaart, S. Muis, H. de Moel, P. Ward, D. Eilander, J. Aerts

{"title":"Enabling dynamic modelling of coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographs","authors":"J. Dullaart, S. Muis, H. de Moel, P. Ward, D. Eilander, J. Aerts","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Coastal flooding is driven by the combination of (high) tide and storm\u0000surge, the latter being caused by strong winds and low pressure in tropical\u0000and extratropical cyclones. The combination of storm surge and the\u0000astronomical tide is defined as the storm tide. To gain an understanding of\u0000the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are\u0000especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation. Most models used to simulate the coastal inundation scale follow a simple planar approach, referred to as bathtub models. The main limitations of this type of models are that they implicitly assume an\u0000infinite flood duration, and they do not capture relevant physical processes.\u0000In this study we develop a method to generate hydrographs called HGRAPHER,\u0000and we provide a global dataset of storm tide hydrographs based on time series\u0000of storm surges and tides derived from the Global Tide and Surge Model\u0000(GTSM) forced with the ERA5 reanalysis wind and pressure fields. These\u0000hydrographs represent the typical shape of an extreme storm tide at a\u0000certain location along the global coastline. We test the sensitivity of the\u0000HGRAPHER method with respect to two main assumptions that determine the\u0000shape of the hydrograph, namely the surge event sampling threshold and\u0000coincidence in the time of the surge and tide maxima. The hydrograph dataset can be used to move away from planar inundation modelling techniques towards dynamic inundation modelling techniques across different spatial scales.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46417632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data 寻找未记录的地震效应:意大利大地震数据的概率分析

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023

Andrea Antonucci, A. Rovida, V. D'Amico, D. Albarello

{"title":"Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data","authors":"Andrea Antonucci, A. Rovida, V. D'Amico, D. Albarello","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. A methodology to detect local incompleteness of\u0000macroseismic intensity data at the local scale is presented. In particular,\u0000the probability that undocumented effects actually occurred at a site is\u0000determined by considering intensity prediction equations (in their\u0000probabilistic form) integrated by observations relative to known events\u0000documented at surrounding sites. The outcomes of this analysis can be used\u0000to investigate how representative and known the seismic histories of\u0000localities are (i.e., the list of documented effects through time). The proposed approach is applied to the Italian area. The analysis shows that, at most of\u0000the considered sites, the effects of intensity ≥ 6 should most probably\u0000have occurred at least once, but they are not contained in the current\u0000version of the Italian macroseismic databases. In a few cases, instead, the\u0000lack of data may concern higher intensity levels (i.e., ≥ 8). The\u0000geographical distribution of potentially lost information reflects the\u0000heterogeneity of the seismic activity over the Italian territory.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42310594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Spatiotemporal seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen 台湾造山带地震活动的时空格局

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023

Y. Wen, Chu-Song Chen, S. Wen, Weifan Lu

引用次数: 0

The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea 波罗的海西部极端风暴潮的预处理作用

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023

E. Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, M. Drews, M. Stendel, Kristine Skovgaard Madsen

{"title":"The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea","authors":"E. Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, M. Drews, M. Stendel, Kristine Skovgaard Madsen","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. When natural hazards interact in compound events, they may reinforce each other. This is a concern today and in light of climate change.\u0000In the case of coastal flooding, sea-level variability due to tides, seasonal to inter-annual salinity and temperature variations, or larger–scale wind conditions modify the development and ramifications of extreme sea levels. Here, we explore how various prior conditions could have influenced peak water levels for the devastating coastal flooding event in the western Baltic Sea in 1872. We design numerical experiments by imposing a range of precondition circumstances as boundary conditions to numerical ocean model simulations. This allows us to quantify the changes in peak water levels that arise due to alternative preconditioning of the sea level before the storm surge. Our results show that certain preconditioning could have generated even more catastrophic impacts. As an example, a simulated increase in the water level of 36 cm compared to the 1872 event occurred in Køge just south of Copenhagen (Denmark) and surrounding areas – a region that was already severely impacted. The increased water levels caused by the alternative sea-level patterns propagate as long waves until encountering shallow and narrow straits, and after that, the effect vastly decreases. Adding artificial increases in wind speeds to each study point location reveals a near-linear relationship with peak water levels for all western Baltic locations, highlighting the need for good assessments of future wind extremes. Our research indicates that a more hybrid approach to analysing compound events and readjusting our present warning system to a more contextualised framework might provide a firmer foundation for climate adaptation and disaster risk management. In particular, accentuating the importance of compound preconditioning effects on the outcome of natural hazards may avoid under- or overestimation of the associated risks.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47243913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides 基于web的GIS（web GIS）地震引发的滑坡科学文章数据库

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023

L. Schilirò, M. Rossi, F. Polpetta, F. Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, P. Reichenbach

{"title":"A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides","authors":"L. Schilirò, M. Rossi, F. Polpetta, F. Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, P. Reichenbach","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Over the last 2 decades, the topic of\u0000earthquake-triggered landslides (EQTLs) has shown increasing relevance in\u0000the scientific community. This interest is confirmed by the numerous\u0000articles published in international, peer-reviewed journals. In this\u0000work we present a database containing a selection of articles published on\u0000this topic from 1984 to 2021. The articles were selected through a\u0000systematic search on the Clarivate™ Web of Science™ Core\u0000Collection online platform and were catalogued into a web-based GIS (web-GIS),\u0000which was specifically designed to show different types of information.\u0000After a general analysis of the database, for each article the following aspects were identified:\u0000the bibliometric information (e.g. author(s), title, publication year), the\u0000relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and the earthquake(s) addressed. The\u0000analysis allowed us to infer general information and statistics on EQTLs (e.g.\u0000relevant methodological approaches over time and in relation to the scale of\u0000investigation, most studied events), which can be useful to obtain a spatial\u0000distribution of the articles and a general overview of the topic.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42925914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Clustering of eruptive events from high-precision strain signals recorded during the 2020–2022 lava fountains at the Etna volcano (Italy) 2020-2022年埃特纳火山熔岩喷泉期间记录的高精度应变信号中的喷发事件集群（意大利）

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023

L. Carleo, G. Currenti, A. Bonaccorso

{"title":"Clustering of eruptive events from high-precision strain signals recorded during the 2020–2022 lava fountains at the Etna volcano (Italy)","authors":"L. Carleo, G. Currenti, A. Bonaccorso","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are spectacular eruptive events characterized by powerful jets that expel hot mixtures of solid particles and volcanic gases, easily reaching stratospheric heights. Ash dispersal and fallout of solid particles affect the inhabited areas, often causing hazards both to infrastructure and to air and vehicular traffic. We focus on the extraordinary intense and frequent eruptive activity at Etna in the period of December 2020–February 2022, when more than 60 lava fountain events occurred with various ejected magma volume and lava fountain height and\u0000duration. Differences among the events are also imprinted in tiny ground\u0000deformations caught by strain signals recorded concurrently with the lava\u0000fountain events, reflecting a strict relationship with their evolution. To\u0000characterize this variability, which denotes changes in the eruption style,\u0000we clustered the lava fountain events using the k-means algorithm applied on the strain signal. A novel procedure was developed to ensure a high-quality clustering process and obtain robust results. The analysis identified four groups of strain variations which stand out for their amplitude, duration and time derivative of the signal. The temporal distribution of the clusters\u0000highlighted a transition in different types of eruptions, thus revealing\u0000the importance of clustering the strain variations for monitoring the\u0000volcano activity and evaluating the associated hazards.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41451654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction 用于全球野火预测的降阶数字孪生和潜在数据同化

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023

Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, M. Kasoar, Rossella Arcucci

{"title":"Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction","authors":"Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, M. Kasoar, Rossella Arcucci","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The occurrence of forest fires can impact vegetation in\u0000the ecosystem, property, and human health but also indirectly affect the\u0000climate. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator – INteractive Fire and Emissions\u0000algorithm for Natural envirOnments (JULES-INFERNO) is a global land surface model, which simulates\u0000vegetation, soils, and fire occurrence driven by environmental factors.\u0000However, this model incurs substantial computational costs due to the high\u0000data dimensionality and the complexity of differential equations. Deep-learning-based digital twins have an advantage in handling large amounts of\u0000data. They can reduce the computational cost of subsequent predictive models\u0000by extracting data features through reduced-order modelling (ROM) and then\u0000compressing the data to a low-dimensional latent space. This study proposes\u0000a JULES-INFERNO-based digital twin fire model using ROM techniques and deep\u0000learning prediction networks to improve the efficiency of global wildfire\u0000predictions. The iterative prediction implemented in the proposed model can\u0000use current-year data to predict fires in subsequent years. To avoid the\u0000accumulation of errors from the iterative prediction, latent data\u0000assimilation (LA) is applied to the prediction process. LA manages to\u0000efficiently adjust the prediction results to ensure the stability and\u0000sustainability of the prediction. Numerical results show that the proposed\u0000model can effectively encode the original data and achieve accurate\u0000surrogate predictions. Furthermore, the application of LA can also\u0000effectively adjust the bias of the prediction results. The proposed digital\u0000twin also runs 500 times faster for online predictions than the original\u0000JULES-INFERNO model without requiring high-performance computing (HPC)\u0000clusters.\u0000","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46896937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Statistical modeling of sediment supply in torrent catchments of the northern French Alps 法国阿尔卑斯北部激流集水区泥沙供应的统计模型

2区地球科学

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023

Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, Caroline Le Bouteiller

{"title":"Statistical modeling of sediment supply in torrent catchments of the northern French Alps","authors":"Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, Caroline Le Bouteiller","doi":"10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The ability to understand and predict coarse-sediment transport in torrent catchments is a key element for the protection against and prevention of the associated hazards. In this study, we collected data describing sediment supply at 99 torrential catchments in the northern French Alps. The sample covers a wide range of geomorphic activity: from torrents experiencing debris flows every few years to fully forested catchments exporting small bed load volumes every decade. These catchments have long records of past events and sediment supply to debris basins. The mean annual, the 10-year return period and the reference volume (i.e., the 100-year return level or the largest observed volume) of sediment supply were derived for the studied torrents. We examined the relationships between specific sediment supply volumes and many explanatory variables using linear regression and random forest approaches. Results showed that the ratio of sediment-contributing area (bare soil or rock) to catchment area is the most important predictor of the specific sediment production volumes (m3 km−2). Other variables such as the Melton index or the indices of sediment connectivity also have an influence. Several predictive models were developed in order to estimate the sediment supply in torrents that are not equipped with debris basins.","PeriodicalId":18922,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135421494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0