INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"China's High Saving Rate: Myth and Reality","authors":"Guonan Ma, Yi Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1631797","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1631797","url":null,"abstract":"The saving rate of China is high from many perspectives - historical experience, international standards and the predictions of economic models. Furthermore, the average saving rate has been rising over time, with much of the increase taking place in the 2000s, so that the aggregate marginal propensity to save exceeds 50%. What really sets China apart from the rest of the world is that the rising aggregate saving has reflected high savings rates in all three sectors - corporate, household and government. Moreover, adjusting for inflation alters interpretations of the time path of the propensity to save in the three sectors. Our evidence casts doubt on the proposition that distortions and subsidies account for China's rising corporate profits and high saving rate. Instead, we argue that tough corporate restructuring (including pension and home ownership reforms), a marked Lewis-model transformation process (where the average wage exceeds the marginal product of labour in the subsistence sector) and rapid ageing process have all played more important roles. While such structural factors suggest that the Chinese saving rate will peak in the medium term, policies for job creation and a stronger social safety net would assist the transition to more balanced domestic demand.","PeriodicalId":188920,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133512747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Design of Micro Credit Contracts and Persistent Access to Credit Constraints of Micro Enterprises in Uganda","authors":"Winifred M. Tarinyeba-Kiryabwire","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1616084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1616084","url":null,"abstract":"Contractual arrangements in microfinance are designed to overcome the problems of adverse selection and moral hazard that are prevalent in developing and low income countries. Micro credit lenders use “innovative” lending methods such as group lending, contingent credit and use of collateral substitutes to provide credit to those unable to borrow from mainstream financial institutions such commercial banks. However, despite growth of the microfinance industry in terms of outreach and product development, the businesses at the bottom end - micro enterprises - still face considerable access to credit constraints. A study of micro enterprise access to credit in Uganda revealed limiting factors such as the evolving nature of micro credit and its providers, the lack of flexibility in structuring micro loans, and the negative perceptions about loan application and screening processes. In addition, harsh expected consequences of default, the disincentives of contingent credit, and the blind sanctioning of default also negatively impact access to credit. The study involved 602 micro enterprises located in various parts of Uganda and 105 lending institutions including commercial banks, credit institutions, microfinance deposit taking institutions, microfinance non-deposit taking institutions and Savings and Credit Cooperatives and Savings and Credit Societies.","PeriodicalId":188920,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114685294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Efficiency of Indian Commodities Market: A Study of Agricultural Commodity Derivatives Traded on NCDEX","authors":"G. Kaur, D. Rao","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1600687","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1600687","url":null,"abstract":"Since commodity “futures” trading was permitted in 2003, the commodity derivative market in India has witnessed phenomenal growth. Though the volume of commodity futures trade increased exponentially since its launch in 2003, the functioning of the futures market came under scrutiny during 2008-2009 due to price rise and the role of futures market in stabilizing spot prices was widely discussed. The study aims at testing the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of an emerging commodity market - National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which is considered as the prime commodity derivatives market in India. The study considered daily spot and futures prices of four agricultural commodities traded on NCDEX over a 13 month period (the futures contracts originating and expiring during the period July 2008 to July 2009). The four commodities chosen are Pepper, Refined Soya Oil, Guar seed and Chana as they account for almost two-thirds of the value of agricultural commodity derivatives traded on NCDEX. 27 Future Contracts for the above four commodities were analyzed for the period of study. Autocorrelation and Run test have been used to test the efficiency of the agricultural commodity market. It has been observed that the coefficients are high for lags in the beginning and the values continue to fall as the lags increase. However, the fall in values of autocorrelation coefficients is not much. This may suggest that information embedded in longer period of lags would be as influential in determining future price as that of information embedded in short lag periods. The results of Autocorrelation and Run test indicate that both spot and futures prices are weak form efficient.","PeriodicalId":188920,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114063092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Income Per Capita Inequality in China: The Role of Economic Geography and Spatial Interactions","authors":"Laura Hering, Sandra Poncet","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01241.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01241.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper contributes to the analysis of growing income disparities within China. Based on a structural model of economic geography using data on per capita income, we evaluate the extent to which market proximity and spatial dependence can explain growing income inequality between Chinese cities. We rely on a data set of 195 Chinese cities between 1995 and 2002. Our econometric specification incorporates an explicit consideration of spatial dependence effects in the form of spatially lagged per capita income. We provide evidence that the geography of access to markets is statistically significant in explaining variation in per capita income in China, especially so in provinces with low migration inflows which is coherent with NEG theory.","PeriodicalId":188920,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"2010 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128862227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates Stationary? A Regime-Switching Perspective","authors":"Mark J. Holmes","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2010.00497.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2010.00497.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper tests for long-run purchasing power (PPP) among nine Asia-Pacific countries. Non-stationarity of the real exchange rate is tested within a Markov regime-switching framework. Two new concepts of PPP are defined that allow for real exchange behaviour to switch between stationary and non-stationary regimes (partial PPP) or between stationary regimes of differing degrees of persistence (varied PPP). The results indicate that each country is characterized by at least one stationary regime. Indeed, five countries are characterized by two such regimes. Further analysis indicates that the Asian crisis of 1997 gave mixed impetus to the achievement of long-run PPP.","PeriodicalId":188920,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125859028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Vertical Trade and China's Export Dynamics","authors":"Wei Liao, K. Shi, Zhiwei Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1628048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1628048","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines how China's exports are affected by exchange rate shocks from countries who supply intermediate inputs to China. We build a simple small open economy model with intermediate goods trade to show that due to the intraregional trade in intermediate goods, a devaluation of other Asian currencies does not necessarily damage China's exports, as imported intermediate goods could become cheaper. This channel through the cost of intermediate goods depends critically on the share of intermediate goods used in China's export goods production and the degree of exchange rate pass-through in imported intermediate goods prices. If prices for intermediate goods are not very sticky, the effect through this channel could be large and China's exports could even benefit. We find the above findings do not depend on China's choice of currency invoicing between RMB and the US dollar or the choice between fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes.","PeriodicalId":188920,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125652496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Speed of Adjustment to Macroeconomic Information: Evidence from Ghanaian Stock Market (GSE)","authors":"S. Frimpong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1595513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1595513","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the speed of adjustment of stock prices to macroeconomic information using monthly Databank stock Index (DSI) from November 1990 to December 2007. We use Granger-Causality test to show unidirectional causality from macroeconomic information to stock prices. Our findings suggest slow adjustment of stock prices to macroeconomic information with exchange rate being the slowest. We argue that the speed of adjustment of exchange rate reflects the behaviour of foreign investors.","PeriodicalId":188920,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"112 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132365204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corporate Governance in an Emerging Market – What Does the Market Trust?","authors":"R. Chakrabarti, Subrata Sarkar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1615960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1615960","url":null,"abstract":"The recent corporate governance scandals at the fourth largest software firm in India, Satyam Computers Limited, provide two clean and major corporate governance events, with effects on firms across the board in India (and possibly other emerging market countries). The first instance was a shock about board ineffectiveness on Dec 16, when Satyam’s board approved of an acquisition of two companies – one unlisted – where members of the Chairman’s family were the main entrepreneurs and had majority or complete shareholding; and the second, an accounting shock, occurred on January 7 when it was disclosed that the firm had been fudging its accounts for several years and its much-vaunted $1.2 billion cash holding was largely non-existent and the result of a long-drawn accounting fraud. We analyze the cross-sectional variation in the stock price reactions to these two corporate governance shocks for Indian companies. We relate the firm-specific cumulative abnormal returns on these two dates to different measures of corporate governance to find out the market perception of the validity of these measures. We show that with regard to board effectiveness, i) Board independence matters; ii) the characteristics of the independent directors also have a favorable effect on market reaction: companies with independent directors having more expertise (proxied by number of multiple directorships) do better; iii) institutional holdings have a salutary effect, but only for foreign institutions; iv) board size has a positive effect on market reaction; and v) there is a large discount for companies belonging to business groups. For the second episode, none of the board or audit committee independence related variables are significant, but indicators of quality of audit committee seem to matter. The discount of group companies becomes even more pronounced in this episode. These findings help us identify what variables among those identified by prior research are actually taken into account by investors in an emerging market to assess the corporate governance levels of companies and to what extent they affect valuation.","PeriodicalId":188920,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"7 26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129599289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The GCC Banking Sector: Topography and Analysis","authors":"Abdullah Al-Hassan, Nada Oulidi, M. Khamis","doi":"10.5089/9781451982619.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451982619.001","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyze the evolution of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sectors in the six member countries including ownership, concentration, cross-border linkages, balance sheet exposures and risks, recent trends in credit growth, and financial soundness. We identify risks to the banking sector's financial stability in the context of the current global crisis and their mitigating factors.","PeriodicalId":188920,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"542 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123465899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The 'Dragon' and the 'Elephant' and Global Imbalances","authors":"M. Spoor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1619267","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1619267","url":null,"abstract":"Global financial imbalances receive a great deal of attention in relation to the emerging economies China and India. This chapter analyzes this relation, but argues first that they are actually re-balancing the existing structural inequality in the world economy, in which for so long only the Western economies and Japan dominated economic growth and international trade, moving towards a more multi-polar world economy. China in particular, with its rapid export-led growth, has indeed been part and parcel of the emerging financial imbalances, feeding the ‘over-consumption’ in the US and using its accumulating international reserves in buying US-treasury bonds. Finance therefore is moving to the economy that ‘least needs it’. This imbalance can only be redressed if the US (and some of the other OECD countries) start saving more and consuming less (and become more competitive), with China further stimulating domestic demand (which it already did in response to the crisis). China and to a lesser extend India, as emerging large economies and a more important roles in global markets, also contribute to new imbalances, such as the influence of the insatiable appetite for resources (carbon-hydrates, minerals and bio-mass) of these relatively energy-inefficient economies, while at the same time attracting an increasing share of FDI towards them. The chapter finally raises the issue that these three mentioned imbalances make it more difficult for developing countries (except for those who are resource-rich) to get access to the necessary development finance.","PeriodicalId":188920,"journal":{"name":"INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129591942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}