TransportRN: Transportation Supply & Demand (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Demand Elasticity of Imported Cars in China","authors":"Q. He, Z. Yang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2914193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2914193","url":null,"abstract":"China recently has been through a quick economic development, in which its GDP went up and has influenced people’s lives. This paper is written to present the income elasticity of growing GDP and people’s purchasing power on imported cars which is due to their incomes. As well as the demand elasticity of imported cars due to the GDP growth, and the effective rate of imported car parts of imported cars will be concluded as well. Therefore a single regression is recommended to be used to analyze both the first and secondary data that were collected under a 95% significant level. In the research, 11 variables were used to testify the demand elasticity which are number of imported cars; number of imported oil; GDP per capital; GNI per capital PPP; final consumption; rural population; the average imported car price; number of individual vehicles; unemployment and number of motorbike sold. Based on the final results, it shows that there is a considerable demand of imported cars in China. Furthermore, with the development of China’s economy in the future, there is still much space for the demand of imported cars to grow.","PeriodicalId":187449,"journal":{"name":"TransportRN: Transportation Supply & Demand (Topic)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134333008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ride Your Luck! A Field Experiment on Lottery-Based Incentives for Compliance","authors":"M. Fabbri, P. Barbieri, M. Bigoni","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2881465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2881465","url":null,"abstract":"In a field experiment, we studied the performance of an incentive scheme that combines a lottery-based reward for compliance with probabilistic sanctions for noncompliance. For one month, bus passengers who purchased a ticket on board a subset of buses operating in a medium-sized Italian city participated in a lottery awarding a €500 prize. The remaining buses—otherwise identical—were used as controls. We observed the amount of tickets sold on treated and control buses over three months, before, during, and after the introduction of the lottery. Results show that treated buses sold significantly more on-board tickets than control buses during the lottery period. In our setup, the estimated extra revenues from the ticket sales caused by the introduction of the lottery fell short of the amount of the total prizes raffled off. However, the incentive scheme proved cost-effective because not all the lottery prizes were claimed by winners. This paper was accepted by Uri Gneezy, behavioral economics.","PeriodicalId":187449,"journal":{"name":"TransportRN: Transportation Supply & Demand (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116649653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flagging Off High-Speed Trains in India: Prerequisites, Feasibility, Benefits and Challenges","authors":"Anmol Vashisht","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3591721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3591721","url":null,"abstract":"The paper is an attempt to answer the convoluted riddle: how can India achieve global standards in high-speed railway infrastructure? The need for overhauling the current railway network is conspicuous. With dull patchy walls of railway stations daubed in paan spits, railway tracks rusting with age and train compartments reeking with stench; a travel in the Indian Railways could be a possible nightmare for many. The rot runs deep in the system: it is running in huge losses. The Indian Railways suffered a loss of nearly Rs. 25,000 crore the previous fiscal year. A comprehensive analysis of the issues riddling the network and suggesting solutions thereto are prerequisites to inducting high speed railways to the network. Introducing high-speed railways in the network without thought to the existing problems is meaningless. The paper shall commence with cataloging the issues plaguing the railway network with relevant suggestions. After addressing the issues, the paper would continue to chart a road-map for successful introduction of high-speed railways in India. The costs involved in the project along with possible routes shall be discussed. The paper would conclude with juxtaposing the benefits of the high-speed system with the challenges arising therefrom.","PeriodicalId":187449,"journal":{"name":"TransportRN: Transportation Supply & Demand (Topic)","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123963861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Pure Characteristics Demand Model for Automobile Variants","authors":"O. Thomassen","doi":"10.22904/SJE.2014.27.2.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22904/SJE.2014.27.2.004","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to demonstrate, via an empirical example, how to obtain point estimates of price elasticities for differentiated products using a single cross section of product level data. Bajari and Benkard (2005) use revealed-preference bounds for the taste coefficients. In order to obtain point estimates, I modify their model in two ways. First, I impose additional bounds on the willingness to pay for characteristics, based on the price consumers actually paid for the product they purchased. Secondly, I make an assumption about the distribution of taste coefficients within the bounds for each product. I estimate the model with data on new car sales in Norway.","PeriodicalId":187449,"journal":{"name":"TransportRN: Transportation Supply & Demand (Topic)","volume":"151 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123497359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"민간투자 도로사업의 교통수요 예측위험의 경제적 가치 (Valuing the Risks Created by Road Transport Demand Forecasting in PPP Projects)","authors":"Kang-suk Kim, S. Cho, I.-Cheng Yang","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2013.35.4.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2013.35.4.31","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 민간투자 도로사업의 경우, 사업의 미래 수익성과 직접적으로 관련 있는 예측 교통량의 불확실성과 이에 따른 위험이 민간 운영자에게 이전된다. 따라서 교통량 예측위험이 민간투자도로사업의 추진에 어느 정도 영향을 미치며, 이러한 위험의 실제적인 경제적 가치를 파악하는 것은 민간투자사업의 적격성을 파악하고 이를 높일 수 있는 중요한 정보이다. 본 논문의 목적은 민간투자 도로사업의 교통수요 예측위험의 경제적 가치를 산정하는 것이다. 이를 위해 예측 교통량은 불확실성이 존재하는 확률변수이며, 시간이 경과하면서 기하 브라운 운동을 따른다고 가정한 후 민간투자사업의 가치변동성을 예측하는 방안을 제안하였다. 특히 본 논문에서는 개통 후 도로사업의 교통량 형성 특성을 고려한 램프업 기간 전후의 상이한 교통량 증가율과 그 변동성을 적용하여 단순히 임의적으로 가정한 기존 연구와 차별화하였다. 사례 사업 분석 결과, 예측된 해당 민간투자사업의 교통수요 예측 리스크 프리미엄은 출자 건설회사의 시가총액을 고려하지 않고 단순평균하는 경우 7.39%, 시가총액을 가중하여 평가하는 경우 8.30%로 분석되었으며, 교통수요 예측위험에 따른 해당 민간투자사업의 가치변동성은 17.11%로 예측되었다. 할인율이 클수록 프로젝트의 가치변동성은 작아졌는데, 비용의 고정으로 인한 레버리지 효과는 교통량 변동성보다 프로젝트의 가치변동성을 크게 하였다. 교통수요 예측위험에 따른 민간투자사업의 가치변동률과 리스크 프리미엄을 통해 산출하는 사례 민간투자사업 교통량 예측위험의 시장가치는 0.42~0.50 사이로 분석되었는데, 이는 교통량 변동성이 1% 증가하거나 감소하면 이에 따른 해당 프로젝트 위험 프리미엄은 0.42~0.50% 증가하거나 감소함을 의미한다.English Abstract: The purpose of this study is to calculate the economic value of transport demand forecasting risks in the road PPP project. Under the assumption that volatility of the road PPP project value occurs only in regard with uncertainty of traffic volume forecasting, this study calculates the economic value of the traffic forecasting risks in the case of the road PPP project. To that end, forecasted traffic volume is assumed to be a stochastic variable and to follow the Geometric Brownian motion as time passes. In particular, this study attempts to differentiate itself from existing studies that simply use an arbitrary assumption by presenting the application of different traffic volume growth volatility and the rates before and after the ramp-up period. Analysis of the case projects reveals that the risk premium related to traffic volume forecast of the project turns out as 7.39~8.30%, without considering option value ― such as minimum revenue guarantee ― while the project value volatility caused by transport demand forecasting risks is 17.11%. As the discount rate grows higher, the project value volatility tends to decrease and volatility in project value is always suggested to be larger than that in transport volume influenced by leverage effect due to fixed expenditure. The market value of transport demand forecasting risk ― calculated using the project value volatility and risk premium ― is analyzed to be between 0.42~0.50, implying that a 1% increase or decrease in the transport amount volatility would lead to a 0.42~0.50% increase or decrease in risk premium of the project.","PeriodicalId":187449,"journal":{"name":"TransportRN: Transportation Supply & Demand (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122966767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}