热带气象学报最新文献

{"title":"STOCHASTIC SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC REGION WITH CLASSIFICATION MODEL","authors":"Hu Wen-feng, L. Da-wei, Shao Meng-kai","doi":"10.16555/J.1006-8775.2020.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16555/J.1006-8775.2020.005","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is a prerequisite for tropical cyclone risk assessment. Against the spatial characteristics of tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific region, stochastic simulation method based on classification model is used to simulate tropical cyclone tracks in this region. Such simulation includes the classification method, the genesis model, the traveling model, and the lysis model. Tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific region are classified into five categories on the basis of its movement characteristics and steering positions. In the genesis model, Gaussian kernel probability density functions with the biased cross validation method are used to simulate the annual occurrence number and genesis positions. The traveling model is established on the basis of the mean and mean square error of the historical 6h latitude and longitude displacements. The termination probability is used as the discrimination standard in the lysis model. Then, this stochastic simulation method of tropical cyclone tracks is applied and qualitatively evaluated with different diagnostics. Results show that the tropical cyclone tracks in Northwest Pacific can be satisfactorily simulated with this classification model.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"18 1","pages":"47-56"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85051622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"IMPACT OF VERTICAL RESOLUTION, MODEL TOP AND DATA ASSIMILATION ON WEATHER FORECASTING-A CASE STUDY","authors":"Shao Min, Zhang Yu, XU Jian-jun","doi":"10.16555/J.1006-8775.2020.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16555/J.1006-8775.2020.007","url":null,"abstract":"The impacts of stratospheric initial conditions and vertical resolution on the stratosphere by raising the model top, refining the vertical resolution, and the assimilation of operationally available observations, including conventional and satellite observations, on continental U. S. winter short-range weather forecasting, were investigated in this study. The initial and predicted wind and temperature profiles were analyzed against conventional observations. Generally, the initial wind and temperature bias profiles were better adjusted when a higher model top and refined vertical resolution were used. Negative impacts were also observed in both the initial wind and temperature profiles, over the lower troposphere. Different from the results by only raising the model top, the assimilation of operationally available observations led to significant improvements in both the troposphere and stratosphere initial conditions when a higher top was used. Predictions made with the adjusted stratospheric initial conditions and refined vertical resolutions showed generally better forecasting skill. The major improvements caused by raising the model top with refined vertical resolution, as well as those caused by data assimilation, were in both cases located in the tropopause and lower stratosphere. Negative impacts were also observed in the predicted near surface wind and lower-tropospheric temperature. These negative impacts were related to the uncertainties caused by more stratospheric information, as well as to some physical processes. A case study shows that when we raise the model top, put more vertical layers in stratosphere and apply data assimilation, the precipitation scores can be slightly improved. However, more analysis is needed due to uncertainties brought by data assimilation.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"48 1","pages":"71-81"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75957162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Dynamic and Thermal Forcing on the Intensity Evolution of the Vortices over the Tibetan Plateau in Boreal Summer","authors":"Gao Yuan, Yao Xiu-ping","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.022","url":null,"abstract":": The Tibetan Plateau Vortex (TPV) is one of the main weather systems causing heavy rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau in boreal summer. Based on the second Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) reanalysis datasets provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), 8 cases of TPV over the Tibetan Plateau generated in June-August with a lifetime of 42 hours are composited and analyzed to reveal the impact of dynamic and thermal forcing on the intensity evolution of TPVs. The results are as follows. (1) The TPVs appear obviously at 500 hPa and the TPVs intensity (TPVI) shows an obvious diurnal variation with the strongest at 00LT and the weakest at 12LT (LT=UTC+6h). (2) A strong South Asia High at 200 hPa as well as a shrunken Western Pacific Subtropical High at 500 hPa provide favorable conditions for the TPVI increasing. (3) The vorticity budget reveals that the divergence is indicative of the variation of the TPVI. The TPVI decreases when the convergence center at 500 hPa and the divergence center at 200 hPa lie in the east of the TPVs center and increases when both centers coincide with the TPVs center. (4) Potential vorticity (PV) increases with the enhancement of the TPVI. The PV budget shows that the variation of the TPVI is closely related to the diabatic heating over the Tibetan Plateau. The increased sensible heating and radiative heating in the boundary layer intensify the ascent and latent heating release. When the diabatic heating center rises to 400 hPa, it facilitates the development of the TPVs.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical and Comparative Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (1977–2018)","authors":"Xiao-ting Fan, L. Ying, Lyu Ai-min, Long-sheng Liu","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.038","url":null,"abstract":"A statistical comparative analysis of tropical cyclone activity over the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) has been conducted using best-track data and wind radii information from 1977 to 2018 issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Results show that the annual variation in the frequency and duration of tropical cyclones has significantly increased over time over the AS and insignificantly decreased over the BoB. The monthly frequency of tropical cyclones over the AS and the BoB shows a notable bimodal character, with peaks occurring in May and OctoberNovember, respectively. The maximum frequency of tropical cyclones occurs in the second peak as a result of the higher moisture content at mid-levels in the autumn. However, the largest proportion of strong cyclones (H1-H5 grades) occurs in the first peak as a result of the higher sea surface temperatures in early summer. Tropical cyclones over the AS break out later during the first peak and activity ends earlier during the second peak, in contrast with those over the BoB. This is related to the onset and drawback times of the southwest monsoon in the two basins. Tropical cyclones over the AS are mainly generated in the eastern basin, whereas in the BoB the genesis locations are meridionally (zonally) distributed in May-June (October-November) as a result of the seasonal movement of the low-level positive vorticity belt. The Arabian Sea is dominated by tropical cyclones that track west and northwest, accounting for about 74.6% of all the tropical cyclones there, whereas the tropical cyclones with a NE track account for only 25.4%. The proportions of the three types of tracks are similar in the BoB, with each accounting for about 33% of the tropical cyclones. The mean intensity and size of tropical cyclones over the AS are stronger and larger, respectively, than those over the BoB and the size of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean in early summer is larger than that in the autumn. The asymmetrical structure of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean is affected by topography and the longest radius of the 34 kt surface wind often lies in the eastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone circulation in both sea areas.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70475685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Performance Evaluation of the GRAPES Model in Wind Simulations Over South China","authors":"Zhong Shuixin, Chen Zi-tong, Ding Wei-yu, XU Dao-sheng, Zhang Yanxia, Wu Kai-xin, Liang Jia-hao, T. Qun, Wang Li-wen","doi":"10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.001","url":null,"abstract":"In the present study, the performance of the GRAPES model in wind simulation over south China was assessed. The simulations were evaluated by using surface observations and two sounding stations in south China. The results show that the GRAPES model could provide a reliable simulation of the distribution and diurnal variation of the wind. It showed a generally overestimated southerly wind speed especially over the Pearl River Delta region and the south of Jiangxi Province as well as the coastal region over south China. GRAPES also exhibited a large number of stations with the opposite surface wind directions over the east of Guangxi and the south of Jiangxi during the nocturnal-to-morning period, as well as an overall overestimation of surface wind over the coastal regions during the afternoon. Although GRAPES could simulate the general evolutional characteristics of vertical wind profile, it underestimated wind speed above 900 hPa and overestimated wind speed below 900 hPa. Though the parameterization scheme of gravity wave drag proved to be an effective method to alleviate the systematic deviation of wind simulation, GRAPES still exhibited large errors in wind simulation, especially in the lower and upper troposphere.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"4 1","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82201966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Horizontal and Vertical Resolutions on the Microphysical Structure and Boundary Layer Fluxes of Typhoon Hato (2017)","authors":"Zhao Yang-jie, Li Jiang-nan, Liu Fang-zhou, Ruan Zi-xi","doi":"10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.002","url":null,"abstract":"We set four sets of simulation experiments to explore the impacts of horizontal resolution (HR) and vertical resolution (VR) on the microphysical structure and boundary layer fluxes of tropical cyclone (TC) Hato (2017). The study shows that higher HR tends to strengthen TC. Increasing VR in the upper layers tends to weaken TC, while increasing VR in the lower layers tends to strengthen TC. Simulated amounts of all hydrometeors were larger with higher HR. Increasing VR at the upper level enhanced the mixing ratios of cloud ice and cloud snow, while increasing VR at the lower level elevated the mixing ratios of graupel and rainwater. HR has greater impact on the distributions of hydrometeors. Higher HR has a more complete ring structure of the eyewall and more concentrated hydrometeors along the cloud wall. Increasing VR at the lower level has little impact on the distribution of TC hydrometeors, while increasing VR at the upper level enhances the cloud thickness of the eyewall area. Surface latent heat flux (SLHF) is influenced greatly by resolution. Higher HR leads to larger water vapor fluxes and larger latent heat, which would result in a stronger TC. A large amount of false latent heat was generated when HR was too high, leading to an extremely strong TC, VR has a smaller impact on SLHF than HR. But increasing VR at the upper-level reduces the SLHF and weakens TC, and elevating VR at the lower-level increases the SLHF and strengthens TC. The changes in surface water vapor flux and SLHF were practically identical and the simulation results were improved when HR and VR were more coordinated. The friction velocity was greater with higher VR. Enhancing VR at the lower level increased the friction velocity, while increasing VR at the upper level reduced it.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"7 1","pages":"10-23"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89666151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Different Cloud Microphysics Parameterization Schemes on Typhoon Intensity and Structure","authors":"Wang Chen-x, Ying Ming","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.011","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70475862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of Precipitation in Multi-Generation Reanalyses with Land Observations over Zhejiang Province","authors":"M. Hao, Yin Yue, Xiao Jing-jing, Xue Zhe-yong, Yang Ming, Gao Da-wei, GE Jing-wen","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.014","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison and Analysis of Two Different Calculation Schemes of SLEVE- Hybrid Coordinate in GRAPES_MESO Model","authors":"Li Chao, Liu Xingliang, Huo Jianglin","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.009","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70475737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Utilization of Specific Attenuation for Rainfall Estimation in Southern China","authors":"Zhang A-si, Uang Chao-ying, Chen Shengo, Zhang Peng-fei, HU Dong-ming, Xiao Liu-si","doi":"10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.005","url":null,"abstract":"This study uses rain gauge observations to assess the performance of different radar estimators R(ZH), R(KDP) and R(A) in estimating precipitation based on the observations of an S-band polarimetric radar over southern China during a typical convective storm and an extremely severe typhoon, i. e., Typhoon Manghkut. These radar estimators were derived from observations of a local autonomous particle size and velocity (Parsivel) unit (APU) disdrometer. A key parameter, alpha (α), which is the ratio of specific attenuation A to specific differential phase KDP with three fixed values (α=0.015 dB deg-1, α=0.0185 dB deg-1 and α=0.03 dB deg-1) was examined to test the sensitivity of the R(A) rain retrievals. The results show that: (1) All radar estimators can capture the spatio-temporal patterns of two precipitation events, R(A) with α=0.0185 dB deg-1 is well correlated with gauge measurement via higher Pearson's correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.87, lower relative bias (RB) of 16%, and lower root mean square error (RMSE) of 17.09 mm in the convective storm while it underestimates the typhoon event with RB of 35%; (2) R(A) with α=0.03 dB deg-1 shows the best statistical scores with the highest CC (0.92), lowest RB (7%) and RMSE (25.74mm) corresponding to Typhoon Manghkut; (3) R(A) estimates are more efficient in mitigating the impact of partial beam blockage. The results indicate that α is remarkably influenced by the variation of drop size distribution. Thus, more work is needed to establish an automated and optimized α for the R(A) relation during different rainfall events over different regions.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"3 1","pages":"48-61"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85968597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}