Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological最新文献

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On Use of the EM Algorithm for Penalized Likelihood Estimation EM算法在惩罚似然估计中的应用
Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological Pub Date : 1990-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.2517-6161.1990.TB01798.X
P. Green
{"title":"On Use of the EM Algorithm for Penalized Likelihood Estimation","authors":"P. Green","doi":"10.1111/J.2517-6161.1990.TB01798.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.2517-6161.1990.TB01798.X","url":null,"abstract":"SUMMARY The EM algorithm is a popular approach to maximum likelihood estimation but has not been much used for penalized likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimation. This paper discusses properties of the EM algorithm in such contexts, concentrating on rates of conver- gence, and presents an alternative that is usually more practical and converges at least as quickly. The EM algorithm is a general approach to maximum likelihood estimation, rather than a specific algorithm. Dempster et al. (1977) discussed the method and derived basic properties, demonstrating that a variety of procedures previously developed rather informally could be unified. The common strand to problems where the approach is applicable is a notion of 'incomplete data'; this includes the conventional sense of 'missing data' but is much broader than that. The EM algorithm demon- strates its strength in situations where some hypothetical experiment yields data from which estimation is particularly convenient and economical: the 'incomplete' data actually at hand are regarded as observable functions of these 'complete' data. The resulting algorithms, while usually slow to converge, are often extremely simple and remain practical in large problems where no other approaches may be feasible. Dempster et al. (1977) briefly refer to the use of the same approach to the problem of finding the posterior mode (maximum a posteriori estimate) in a Bayesian estima-","PeriodicalId":17425,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87336707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 393
Models for exceedances over high thresholds 超过高阈值的超标模型
Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological Pub Date : 1990-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.2517-6161.1990.TB01796.X
A. Davison, Richard L. Smith
{"title":"Models for exceedances over high thresholds","authors":"A. Davison, Richard L. Smith","doi":"10.1111/J.2517-6161.1990.TB01796.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.2517-6161.1990.TB01796.X","url":null,"abstract":"We discuss the analysis of the extremes of data by modelling the sizes and occurrence of exceedances over high thresholds. The natural distribution for such exceedances, the generalized Pareto distribution, is described and its properties elucidated. Estimation and model-checking procedures for univariate and regression data are developed, and the influence of and information contained in the most extreme observations in a sample are studied. Models for seasonality and serial dependence in the point process of exceedances are described. Sets of data on river flows and wave heights are discussed, and an application to the siting of nuclear installations is described","PeriodicalId":17425,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82624684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1583
Estimation and Inference by Compact Coding 基于压缩编码的估计与推理
Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological Pub Date : 1987-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.2517-6161.1987.TB01695.X
C. S. Wallace, P. Freeman
{"title":"Estimation and Inference by Compact Coding","authors":"C. S. Wallace, P. Freeman","doi":"10.1111/J.2517-6161.1987.TB01695.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.2517-6161.1987.TB01695.X","url":null,"abstract":"SUMMARY The systematic variation within a set of data, as represented by a usual statistical model, may be used to encode the data in a more compact form than would be possible if they were considered to be purely random. The encoded form has two parts. The first states the inferred estimates of the unknown parameters in the model, the second states the data using an optimal code based on the data probability distribution implied by those parameter estimates. Choosing the model and the estimates that give the most compact coding leads to an interesting general inference procedure. In its strict form it has great generality and several nice properties but is computationally infeasible. An approximate form is developed and its relation to other methods is explored.","PeriodicalId":17425,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1987-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82274842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 586
Bartlett Adjustments to the Likelihood Ratio Statistic and the Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator 巴特利特似然比统计量的调整及最大似然估计量的分布
Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological Pub Date : 1984-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01321.X
O. Barndorff-Nielsen, D. Cox
{"title":"Bartlett Adjustments to the Likelihood Ratio Statistic and the Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator","authors":"O. Barndorff-Nielsen, D. Cox","doi":"10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01321.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01321.X","url":null,"abstract":"For rather general parametric models, a simple connection is established between the Bartlett adjustment factor of the log-likelihood ratio statistic and the normalizing constant c of the formula c I I 1?2L for the conditional distribution of a maximum likelihood estimator as applied to the full model and the model of the hypothesis tested. This leads to a relatively simple demonstration that division of the likelihood ratio statistic by a suitable constant or estimated factor improves the chi-squared approximation to its distribution. Various expressions for these quantities are discussed. In particular, for the case of a one-dimensional parameter an approximation to the constants involved is derived, which does not require integration over the sample space.","PeriodicalId":17425,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91431761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 144
Efficient Nonparametric Estimation of Mixture Proportions 混合比例的有效非参数估计
Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological Pub Date : 1984-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01319.X
P. Hall, D. Titterington
{"title":"Efficient Nonparametric Estimation of Mixture Proportions","authors":"P. Hall, D. Titterington","doi":"10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01319.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01319.X","url":null,"abstract":"SUMMARY By constructing a sequence of multinomial approximations and related maximum likelihood estimators, we derive a Cramer-Rao lower bound for nonparametric estimators of the mixture proportions and thereby characterize asymptotically optimal estimators. For the case of the sampling model M2 of Hosmer (1973) it is shown that the sequence of maximum likelihood estimators, which can be obtained explicitly, is asymptotically optimal in this sense. The results hold true even when the multinomial approximations involve cells chosen adaptively, from the data, in a wellspecified way.","PeriodicalId":17425,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79284672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 40
Poisson Convergence for Dissociated Statistics 解离统计的泊松收敛性
Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological Pub Date : 1984-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01311.X
G. Eagleson
{"title":"Poisson Convergence for Dissociated Statistics","authors":"G. Eagleson","doi":"10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01311.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01311.X","url":null,"abstract":"SUMMARY A Poisson limit theorem is derived for the number of \"large\" values observed among comparisons of independent, but not necessarily identically distributed random variables. The comparisons made need not be the same and may depend on the two variables being compared. An application to the assessment of large numbers of correlation coefficients is given.","PeriodicalId":17425,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86348326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 57
Multinomial goodness-of-fit tests 多项拟合优度检验
Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological Pub Date : 1984-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01318.X
N. Cressie, Timothy R. C. Read
{"title":"Multinomial goodness-of-fit tests","authors":"N. Cressie, Timothy R. C. Read","doi":"10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01318.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01318.X","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17425,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88459277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1244
Piecewise‐Deterministic Markov Processes: A General Class of Non‐Diffusion Stochastic Models 分段确定性马尔可夫过程:一类非扩散随机模型
Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological Pub Date : 1984-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01308.X
Mark H. A. Davis
{"title":"Piecewise‐Deterministic Markov Processes: A General Class of Non‐Diffusion Stochastic Models","authors":"Mark H. A. Davis","doi":"10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01308.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01308.X","url":null,"abstract":"A general class of non-diffusion stochastic models is introduced with a view to providing a framework for studying optimization problems arising in queueing systems, inventory theory, resource allocation and other areas. The corresponding stochastic processes are Markov processes consisting of a mixture of deterministic motion and random jumps. Stochastic calculus for these processes is developed and a complete characterization of the extended generator is given; this is the main technical result of the paper. The relevance of the extended generator concept in applied problems is discussed and some recent results on optimal control of piecewise-deterministic processes are described.","PeriodicalId":17425,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88729229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1019
Asymptotic Behaviour of Conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimators in a Certain Exponential Model 一类指数模型中条件极大似然估计的渐近性
Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological Pub Date : 1984-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01316.X
S. Bar-Lev
{"title":"Asymptotic Behaviour of Conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimators in a Certain Exponential Model","authors":"S. Bar-Lev","doi":"10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01316.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01316.X","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17425,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91303972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Outlier Models and Prior Distributions in Bayesian Linear Regression 贝叶斯线性回归中的离群值模型和先验分布
Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological Pub Date : 1984-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01317.X
M. West
{"title":"Outlier Models and Prior Distributions in Bayesian Linear Regression","authors":"M. West","doi":"10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01317.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.2517-6161.1984.TB01317.X","url":null,"abstract":"SUMMARY Bayesian inference in regression models is considered using heavy-tailed error distri- butions to accommodate outliers. The particular class of distributions that can be con- structed as scale mixtures of normal distributions are examined and use is made of them as both error models and prior distributions in Bayesian linear modelling, includ- ing simple regression and more complex hierarchical models with structured priors depending on unknown hyperprior parameters. The modelling of outliers in nominally normal linear regression models using alternative error distributions which are heavy-tailed relative to the normal provides an automatic means of both detecting and accommodating possibly aberrant observations. Such realistic models do, however, often lead to analytically intractable analyses with complex posterior distributions in several dimensions that are difficult to summarize and understand. In this paper we consider a special yet rather wide class of heavy-tailed, unimodal and symmetric error distributions for which the analyses, though apparently intractable, can be examined in some depth by exploiting certain properties of the assumed error form. The distributions concerned are those that can be con- structed as scale mixtures of normal distributions. In his paper concerning location parameters, de Finetti (1961) discusses such distributions and suggests the hypothetical interpretation that \"each observation is taken using an instrument with normal error, but each time chosen at random from a collection of instruments of different precisions, the distribution of the","PeriodicalId":17425,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the royal statistical society series b-methodological","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84397291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 251
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