{"title":"On the Strength of the Us Dollar: Can it Be Explained by Output Growth?","authors":"Peter J. G. Vlaar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.300241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.300241","url":null,"abstract":"One popular view on the current strength of the US dollar is that the higher growth in the US compared to Europe has stimulated foreigners to buy American assets, thereby driving up the exchange rate. In this paper a modified portfolio balance model is presented, in which it is shown that the impact of output growth on the exchange rate depends crucially on the origin of this growth. An improvement of the output gap is shown to actually depress the exchange rate whereas an increase in potential output growth leads to an appreciation, especially if this improvement is likely to be persistent. In an empirical example, it is shown that the equilibrium Dmark dollar rate is indeed positively affected by a positive trend growth differential between the US and Germany, whereas it is negatively affected by a positive output gap differential.","PeriodicalId":172053,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Berlin Meetings Presentation Papers (Archive)","volume":"127 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122448956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Diversification Discount or Premium? New Evidence from Bits Establishment-Level Data","authors":"Belén Villalonga","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.253793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.253793","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines whether the finding of a diversification discount in U.S. stock markets is only a data artifact. Segment data may give rise to biased estimates of the value effect of diversification because segments are defined inconsistently across firms, and that inconsistency does not occur at random. I use a new establishment-level database that covers the whole U.S. economy (BITS) to construct business units that are more consistently and objectively defined across firms, and thus more comparable. Using a common methodological approach on a sample of firms which exhibit a diversification discount according to segment data, I find that, when BITS data are used, diversified firms actually trade at a significant average premium. The premium is robust to variations in the method, sample, business unit definition, and measures of excess value and diversification used.","PeriodicalId":172053,"journal":{"name":"EFA 2002 Berlin Meetings Presentation Papers (Archive)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116994165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}