{"title":"Collateral Damage: The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos","authors":"J. Riaño, Felipe Valencia Caicedo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3678347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3678347","url":null,"abstract":"As part of its Cold War counterinsurgency operations in Southeast Asia, the U.S. government conducted a \"Secret War\" in Laos from 1964-1973. This war constituted one of the most intensive bombing campaigns in human history. As a result, Laos is now severely contaminated with UXO (Unexploded Ordnance) and remains one of the poorest countries in the world. In this paper we document the negative long-term impact of conflict on economic development, using highly disaggregated and newly available data on bombing campaigns, satellite imagery and development outcomes. We find a negative, significant and economically meaningful impact of bombings on nighttime lights, expenditures and poverty rates. Almost 50 years after the conflict officially ended, bombed regions are poorer today and are growing at slower rates than unbombed areas. A one standard deviation increase in the total pounds of bombs dropped is associated with a 9.3% fall in GDP per capita. To deal with the potential endogeneity of bombing, we use as instruments the distance to the Vietnamese Ho Chi Minh Trail as well as US military airbases outside Laos. Using census data at the village and individual levels, we show the deleterious impact of UXOs in terms of health, as well as education, structural transformation and rural-urban migration.","PeriodicalId":157668,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Insurgents/Counterinsurgency (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134555826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Military Losses and Public Support for Domestic Counterinsurgency","authors":"Bethany Lacina","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3341583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3341583","url":null,"abstract":"When does the public support domestic counterinsurgency? Do military casualties decrease support for fighting, as during overseas wars? I theorize conditions under which government losses move public opinion against continued counterinsurgency. These are features common to many civil wars: asymmetric combat, an isolated military theater, and socially marginalized insurgents. Evidence comes from a 2010 survey regarding war in southern Thailand. Combining information on the Royal Thai Army's draft system and deployments, I show that army fatalities from a respondent's area predict support for implementing southern autonomy as a means of ending insurgency. As a placebo comparison, I show that army fatalities in the southern campaign do not explain support for compromise in an unrelated conflict in Bangkok. Respondents' assessments of the toll of southern insurgency also predict support for autonomy. This is the first study to show military losses depress support for counterinsurgency in a contemporary civil war.","PeriodicalId":157668,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Insurgents/Counterinsurgency (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124986369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Political Economy of Opposition Groups: Peace, Terrorism, or Civil Conflict","authors":"Michael Jetter, Bei Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3103678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3103678","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a simple framework to better understand an opposition group’s choice between peace, terrorism, and open civil conflict against the government. Our model implies that terrorism emerges if constraints on the ruling executive group are intermediate and rents are sizeable, whereas conflict looms under poor executive constraints. Analyzing annual data for up to 158 countries in a panel setting provides evidence consistent with these hypotheses. The results emerge both when considering the incidence and onset of terrorism and conflict. The corresponding magnitudes are economically sizeable. Overall, these findings can help us understand and anticipate the choices of opposition groups.","PeriodicalId":157668,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Insurgents/Counterinsurgency (Topic)","volume":"87 9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127996591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Political Legacy of Violence: The Long-Term Impact of Stalin's Repression in Ukraine","authors":"Arturas Rozenas, Sebastian Schutte, Y. Zhukov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2934450","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2934450","url":null,"abstract":"Political scientists have long been interested in how indiscriminate violence affects the behavior of its victims, yet most research has focused on short term military consequences rather than long-term political effects. We argue that large scale violence can have an intergenerational impact on political preferences. Communities more exposed to indiscriminate violence in the past will – in the future – oppose political forces they associate with the perpetrators of that violence. We document evidence for this claim with archival data on Soviet state violence in western Ukraine, where Stalin’s security services suppressed a nationalist insurgency by deporting over 250,000 people to Siberia. Using two causal identification strategies, we show that communities subjected to a greater intensity of deportation in the 1940’s are now significantly less likely to vote for ‘pro-Russian’ parties. These findings show that indiscriminate violence systematically reduces long-term political support for the perpetrator.","PeriodicalId":157668,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Insurgents/Counterinsurgency (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114700966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"When Death is Not an Option? Empirical Evidence from Ijaw Armed Group Fighters in the Niger Delta of Nigeria","authors":"Austin Obinna Ezejiofor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2692930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2692930","url":null,"abstract":"Studies have shown that the ultimate consideration intrastate armed group and/or rebel fighters have is the risk of losing their lives in the course of the conflict they execute. Irrespective of how weak or unprepared their enemies seem to be, they do not gloss over this possibility. To this end, they invest a lot of time, energy and resources in ensuring adequate and effective recruitment, training, and armament to ascertain minimal casualty, at least. But, could there be a case where death is not an option for consideration for armed group fighters? This paper casts its searchlight on the armed group fighters in the Niger Delta who invoke the powers of Egbesu, the deity or god of war and justice as they take up arms against the security apparatuses of the Nigerian state and the multinational oil companies. Theoretically, it draws insights from literature on earlier insurgencies and uprisings in Africa, especially the “magic” African guerrillas. Empirically, the paper relies on data collected through narrative and semi-structured interviews with the fighters during field works in the Niger Delta region. From these data which are coded on MAXQDA software and analyzed by Qualitative Content Analysis method, there is strong evidence that the Ijaw armed group fighters do not consider the possibility of death as a viable option. Egbesu is found worthy of protecting the fighters as long as they abide by its principles and the war is within their understanding of justice. This is a bourgeoning insight in understanding motivations for armed resistance in Africa, the paper argues.","PeriodicalId":157668,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Insurgents/Counterinsurgency (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131736698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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