{"title":"Confidence Building on Euro Convergence: Theory and Evidence from Currency Options","authors":"E. Perotti, Joost Driessen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.463081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.463081","url":null,"abstract":"Using a unique dataset of currency option prices, we study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied volatility in excess of actual volatility (volatility wedge). We show formally that confidence grows over time as convergence policy is maintained, and the risk of a reversal is progressively resolved. Empirically, we indeed find a positive volatility wedge only for those currencies involved in convergence, which declines over time. The wedge is correlated with both exogenous fundamentals and proxies for policy commitment uncertainty. We also find that the wedge responds to policy shocks in an asymmetric fashion, suggesting that policy risk is resolved at different rates after negative and positive shocks, as the confidence building model suggests. Finally, we estimate a regime-switching model of convergence uncertainty, using data on interest rates, currency rates, and currency option prices. The results confirm the time-varying and asymmetric nature of convergence risk, and indicate that investors demand a risk premium for convergence risk.","PeriodicalId":154291,"journal":{"name":"De Nederlandsche Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130641907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"MAKMODEL: A Macro-Econometric Model for the Republic of Macedonia","authors":"Leo J. de Haan, Aneta Naumovska, M. Peeters","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1861226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1861226","url":null,"abstract":"This report describes the macro-econometric model for the Republic of Macedonia MAKMODEL. It documents the main features of this model that was built by research teams of the Macedonian and Dutch central bank during July 1999 - June 2001 as one module of a large scale PHARE-project, funded by the European Commission. Details on the statistical aspects of the Macedonian monthly data collected for the period 1993-1999 are provided, along with the construction and estimation of the econometric model. The last sections present some simulation and forecasting examples. The ultimate aim of MAKMODEL is to use it for macro-economic policy analyses at the Macedonian central bank, by means of keeping the statistical basis up to date, elaborating upon the model, and making forecasts and running simulations in the near future.","PeriodicalId":154291,"journal":{"name":"De Nederlandsche Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115822311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Regimes: An Empirical Investigation","authors":"Helge Berger, J. Sturm, J. de Haan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.267833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.267833","url":null,"abstract":"It is often argued that deregulation of international transactions and its effects on the \"globalization\" of financial markets is behind the decline in the attractiveness of fixed exchange rate regimes. We argue that, instead, much of the recently observed decrease in the level of capital controls should be seen as endogenous to the exchange rate regime decision. We find that the durability of a peg (measured on the basis of the growth of international reserves), the political benefits of a commitment to a peg, domestic and foreign inflation (aversion), as well as business cycle volatility and synchronization are the main determinants of capital controls. The empirical analysis is based on data for 53 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94.","PeriodicalId":154291,"journal":{"name":"De Nederlandsche Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129030238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Co-Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of Ppp-Based Exchange Rate Expectations","authors":"J. Berk, K. Knot","doi":"10.5089/9781451850345.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451850345.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates international co-movement in bond yields by testing for uncovered interest parity (UIP). Existing work is supplemented by focusing on long instead of short-term interest rates and by employing exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) instead of actual outcomes. Among the major currencies during 1975-97, the paper does not find a further increase in co-movement beyond that associated with the wave of financial market liberalization in the early 1980s. Given the similarity between PPP-based UIP tests and those employing actual exchange rate outcomes, the value added of the former lies mainly with data availability.","PeriodicalId":154291,"journal":{"name":"De Nederlandsche Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115444286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Investment and Financing in Russian Financial-Industrial Groups","authors":"E. Perotti, S. Gelfer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.50346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.50346","url":null,"abstract":"We study whether Russian Financial-Industrial Groups help the Russian industrial sector to obtain investment finance. We examine the set of firms which are members of official Financial Industrial Groups and/or are owned by one of the large Russian banks, and compare them with a set of other large firms categorized by dispersed ownership or/and management and employee control. We find that investment is sensitive to internal liquidity for the second set of firms but not for the first. This is consistent with extensive reallocation of resources within the groups. One possibility is that group firms have easier access to finance than independent firms, suggesting that financial groups may alleviate agency problem and result in better corporate control over the investment process. Interestingly, large independent firms with a significant stock market valuation and trading appear also less liquidity constraints, suggesting that the Russian equity market may start to provide a positive function. The possibility for opportunistic value transfer across firms is harder to assess. In future research we plan to distinguish between bank-led groups, which appear more hierarchical, and industry-centered groups which may be more defensive.","PeriodicalId":154291,"journal":{"name":"De Nederlandsche Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114789935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Feldstein-Horioka Test of International Capital Mobility: Is it Feasible?","authors":"W. Jansen","doi":"10.5089/9781451852356.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451852356.001","url":null,"abstract":"Feldstein and Horioka (1980) argued that the correlation of saving and investment in a cross-section of countries may provide a test of global capital mobility. This paper argues that neither the long-run nor the short-run correlation can serve as a reliable basis for such a test. The intertemporal budget constraint implies that each country`s saving and investment should be cointegrated over time. Simulations show that the cross-section regressions used in the literature will produce correlations that strongly tend towards one, regardless of the degree of capital mobility. Although the short-run correlation is not affected by the intertemporal budget constraint, the empirical analysis shows it is primarily a country-specific business cycle fact.","PeriodicalId":154291,"journal":{"name":"De Nederlandsche Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115104850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}