Family Medicine and Community Health Journal最新文献

{"title":"Adherence to clinical guidelines for monitoring diabetes in primary care settings","authors":"M. Dai, Michael R. Peabody, Lars E. Peterson, A. Mainous","doi":"10.15212/FMCH.2018.0121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15212/FMCH.2018.0121","url":null,"abstract":"Objective Adherence to clinical guidelines is key to improving diabetes care. Contemporary knowledge of guideline adherence is lacking. This study sought to produce a national snapshot of primary care physicians’ (PCPs) adherence to the American Diabetes Association guidelines for monitoring diabetes and determine whether continuity of care promotes adherence. Methods Using the 2013 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, we examined adherence to ordering hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and lipid profile tests as recommended by the American Diabetes Association for monitoring diabetes in 2379 primary care visits of patient with diabetes. Results In the preceding 12 months, less than 60.0% of the patients were given a test recommended for monitoring diabetes (58.0% for HbA1c and 57.0% for lipid profile). Continuity of care with PCPs increased the odds of adhering to diabetes monitoring guidelines by 36.0% for the HbA1c test (P=0.06) and by 76.0% for the lipid profile test (P=0.0006). Conclusion A substantial gap exists in achieving optimal monitoring for diabetes in primary care settings in the United States. While PCPs are ideally positioned to ensure that guidelines are closely followed, we found that even in primary care settings, patient-provider continuity of care was associated with guideline adherence. Significance statement Adherence to clinical guidelines is an integral part of the World Health Organization’s Global Action Plan to reduce the impact of diabetes. In this study, we used the 2013 National Ambulatory Care Survey to assess US physicians’ adherence to the American Diabetes Association’s guidelines for monitoring diabetes. We found a substantial gap between what was done in primary care settings and what is recommended for optimal diabetes management. Our findings support the positive effect of continuity of care on improving diabetes quality of care.","PeriodicalId":152216,"journal":{"name":"Family Medicine and Community Health Journal","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121351103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors associated with visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure in hypertensive patients at a Primary Health Care Service, Tabanan, Bali, Indonesia","authors":"Gusti Ayu Riska Pertiwi, Anak Agung Ngurah Aryawangsa, I. Prabawa, I. Manuaba, Agha Bhargah, Ni Wayan Sri Ratni, I. G. Budiana","doi":"10.15212/FMCH.2018.0124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15212/FMCH.2018.0124","url":null,"abstract":"Background An increasing number of valid and well-designed trials have demonstrated a positive correlation between visit-to-visit variability (VVV) in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and increased risk of stroke and coronary heart disease among hypertensive patients. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted that involved 74 patients who visited the outpatient clinic at the Tabanan III Primary Health Care Service during April to May 2017. Blood pressure was retrospectively obtained from medical records. VVV was classified as low or high on the basis of the standard deviation of SBP. Antihypertensive medication adherence was expressed as the percentage of days covered, and sodium intake was measured with 24-hour food recall. Bivariate analysis was performed, followed by multivariate analysis for significant variables. Results Among the participants, 67.6% were female, with a mean (standard deviation [SD]) age of 62.70 (10.00) years. Blood pressure was measured 4.82±0.78 times during the period, and the mean (SD) SBP was 139.65 (10.57) mm Hg. Nonadherence and sodium intake were significantly higher in the high-VVV group than in the low-VVV group (nonadherence 13.5% vs. 37.8%, P=0.033; sodium intake 1278.44±43.02 mg vs. 1495.85±45.26 mg, P=0.038). After adjustment for other covariates, the differences remained significant only for nonadherence (model I exp β=3.89 [95.0% confidence interval 1.23–12.34, P<0.05], model II exp β=3.9 [95.0% confidence interval 1.12–14.15, P<0.05]). The area under the curve was 0.636 (P<0.05), with sensitivity of 67.6% and specificity of 51.4%. Conclusion Nonadherence to antihypertensive medication was significantly associated with higher VVV of SBP. Further study is needed to assess whether improving adherence could reduce VVV and improve cardiovascular outcomes. Significance statement This study provides an overview of visit-to-visit variability (VVV) in hypertension blood pressure management in a primary health care service setting. In this study there was a significant relationship between the use of antihypertensive drugs and VVV. This finding illustrates that VVV can be used as an additional factor in considering the target of controlling blood pressure in primary health services, given that hypertension has many complications that can arise if management is not done properly.","PeriodicalId":152216,"journal":{"name":"Family Medicine and Community Health Journal","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128925520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Efficiency of community health centers in China during 2013–2015: A synchronic and diachronic study*","authors":"Lin Zhao, Yao Zhang, Yabing Hou, G. Yan","doi":"10.15212/FMCH.2018.0119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15212/FMCH.2018.0119","url":null,"abstract":"Objective We aimed to explore the efficiency of community health centers (CHCs) in China from 2013 to 2015, providing policy suggestions for optimizing the allocation of health resources. Methods Data on the efficiency of CHCs in 30 provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities in mainland China (except Tibet) from 2013 to 2015 were collected from China’s Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook 2014, China’s Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook 2015, and China’s Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook 2016. Data envelopment analysis and Malmquist index analysis were performed to investigate the efficiency of sampled CHCs during this period at the national level and the regional level. The applied input indicators include the numbers of CHCs, community health workers, and beds, and the output indicators consist of the numbers of visits and inpatients, the occupancy rate of beds, and the average length of stay. Results In 2015, the average annual overall technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency of CHCs in 30 regions at the national level were 0.715, 0.705, and 0.972, respectively. Eight regions (Guangdong, Guizhou, Hainan, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Chongqing, accounting for 26.7% of the total) had efficient CHCs with overall technical efficiency of 1.000, and the other 22 regions had surpluses of 131 CHCs, 5573 community health workers, and 2086 beds on average. In 2015, the average annual technical change index, pure technical efficiency change index, total factor productivity, technical efficiency change index, and scale efficiency change index of CHCs at the national level were 1.034, 1.002, 1.024, 0.990, and 0.988, respectively. Compared with 2013, the former three increased by 3.4%, 0.2%, and 2.4%, respectively, while the latter two decreased by 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively. Conclusion On the whole, efficiency improvements of CHCs were achieved at the national level from 2013 to 2015, but with obvious interregional differences. In regions with inefficient CHCs identified by data envelopment analysis, there was a problem of coexistence of shortage and wastage of community health resources. In view of this, targeted measures should be taken to optimize the allocation of community health resources, and the management of CHCs should be strengthened to improve the efficiency of these institutions.","PeriodicalId":152216,"journal":{"name":"Family Medicine and Community Health Journal","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132537499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comprehensive AIDS prevention programs in prisons: A review study","authors":"S. Zare, M. Kargar, J. Ostovarfar, M. Kaveh","doi":"10.15212/FMCH.2018.0118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15212/FMCH.2018.0118","url":null,"abstract":"Objective Since prisoners may acquire AIDS and transmit HIV because of highly risky behaviors, implementation of educational and therapeutic programs is important in decreasing the prevalence of AIDS and transmission of HIV. This study was conducted to recognize different types of interventions and compare their effectiveness regarding prevention of AIDS and its control in prisons. Methods The ISI, PubMed, Google Scholar, databases were searched with use of “AIDS,” “prison,” “HIV,” and “incarceration” as keywords from January 2000 to March 2017, with access to free full text and English language as limitations. Related articles, including observational, epidemiological, case, and interventional studies, were extracted and those inconsistent with the study’s goals were excluded. Results Forty-three studies were finally selected. The effectiveness of interventions related to AIDS prevention and control in prisons was studied. Conclusion It seems that theory-based studies conducted with stakeholders participation and evaluated summatively are more successful, because they give a sense of ownership. In addition, considering prison as a setting can lead to more success of these programs.","PeriodicalId":152216,"journal":{"name":"Family Medicine and Community Health Journal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115424125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relationship between glycemic control and perceived family support among people with type 2 diabetes mellitus seen in a rich kinship network in Southwest Nigeria","authors":"Nnenna A. Osuji, O. S. Ojo, S. Malomo, Peter T. Sogunle, A. Egunjobi, O. Odebunmi","doi":"10.15212/FMCH.2018.0115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15212/FMCH.2018.0115","url":null,"abstract":"Objective The practice of diabetes self-care behaviors has been cited as a foundation for achieving optimal glycemic control. Proper motivation of people with diabetes mellitus is, however, needed for the performance of these behaviors. It is therefore pertinent to know if motivation by the family will improve glycemic control in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between glycemic control and perceived family support among Nigerians with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods A cross-sectional study was conduced on 316 adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus who attended a medical outpatient clinic. Data were collected through a pretested interviewer-administered questionnaire and a standardized tool (Perceived Social Support – Family scale). Hemoglobin A1c level was used as an indicator of glycemic control. Results The proportion of participants with good glycemic control was 40.6%. Most of the participants (137, 43.8%) had strong perceived family support. Strong perceived family support (P=0.00001, odds ratio 112.51) was an independent predictor of good glycemic control. Conclusion This study shows that strong perception of family support is a predictor of glycemic control among the adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus studied. Physicians working in sub-Saharan African countries with rich kinship networks should harness the available family support of people with type 2 diabetes mellitus in their management. Significance statement Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries are currently experiencing a rapid increase in the incidence of noncommunicable diseases, especially diabetes mellitus (DM), as a result of increasing urbanization and changing lifestyles. People with diseases such as DM that require lifelong management may be tired of taking medications and adhering to the lifestyle modifications over time. This underscores the importance of motivation in people with DM. Can support from the family motivate people with DM to improve self-management behaviors and ultimately their glycemic control? Few studies have looked at the relationship between perceived family support and glycemic control among people with type 2 DM. The conclusions from these studies did not point in any specific direction. Most of these studies were also done in developed countries. Thus, assessing the relationship between perceived family support and glycemic control in a setting with a rich kinship network may give better insight into this theme.","PeriodicalId":152216,"journal":{"name":"Family Medicine and Community Health Journal","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121780087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nutritional status in adolescent girls: Attempt to determine its prevalence and its association with sociodemographic variables","authors":"S. Chandrashekarappa, N. Ramakrishnaiah, R. Manjunath","doi":"10.15212/FMCH.2017.0122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15212/FMCH.2017.0122","url":null,"abstract":"Objective To determine the prevalence of malnutrition among adolescent girls and to assess the association of nutrition with sociodemographic variables. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted among adolescent girls aged 16–19 years. Data regarding sociodemographic variables were collected by administration of a prestructured, pretested questionnaire. Height and weight were measured by standardized techniques in a sample of 700 adolescents. BMI was calculated. IBM SPSS Statistics version 22 was used to determine proportions and for chi-square analysis, independence tests, and binary logistic regression. Results We found 36.2% of adolescent girls were malnourished, among whom 33.7% were obese and 66.3% were undernourished. Conclusion Age and education of the mother and father were found to be significantly associated with malnutrition. Significance statement This article contributes to the field of adolescent nutrition and also adds to the understanding of socio-demographic variables that might be contributing to malnutrition in the age group between 16–19 years (late adolescence). Many countries, including India, have introduced nutritional programs for the improvement of nutrition in adolescents. Such studies like ours would help to evaluate the progress made by such programs, and also by identifying the factors contributing towards malnutrition, would help the planning and implementation of better programs towards specific target groups. Since adolescents form the future of any country, focusing on adolescent nutrition, which has major health implications in the life cycle of an individual, is the need of the hour, more so when it comes to developing countries.","PeriodicalId":152216,"journal":{"name":"Family Medicine and Community Health Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128199107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predictors of successfully quitting smoking among smokers registered at the quit smoking clinic at a public hospital in northeastern Malaysia","authors":"Nur Izzati Mohammad, Selasawati Ghazali, M. N. Shafei","doi":"10.15212/FMCH.2018.0123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15212/FMCH.2018.0123","url":null,"abstract":"Objective The objectives of this study were to determine the proportion of smokers registered at the quit smoking clinic at a public hospital in northeastern Malaysia who successfully quit smoking and the predictive factors for successfully quitting smoking. Methods This was a cross-sectional study involving smokers aged more than 18 years old and registered with the clinic from January 1, 2012, to October 31, 2014. Data were obtained with a designed questionnaire that consisted of sociodemographic information, medical history, smoking characteristics, and type of treatment received by smokers. Smokers who quit smoking 6 months after being registered at the quit smoking clinic were considered as successful quitters. Multiple logistic regression was applied to determine the predictive factors for successfully quitting smoking. Results From a total of 202 respondents, 42.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 35.8–49.4%] of them successfully quit smoking. Multiple logistic regression showed that the number of cigarettes smoked per day (adjusted odds ratio 2.51, 95% CI 1.17–5.41) and a previous quit attempt (adjusted odds ratio 1.88, 95% CI 1.03–3.44) were significant predictors for successfully quitting smoking. Conclusion This study shows that the proportion of smokers who successfully quit smoking among smokers registered at the quit smoking clinic was relatively high. A number of cigarettes smoked per day of 20 or fewer and a previous quit attempt significantly predict successful quitting of smoking. Significance statement Cigarette smoking is one of the risk factors leading to noncommunicable diseases such as cardiovascular and respiratory system diseases and cancer. Quitting smoking is difficult for many people and may involve multiple attempts. A quit smoking clinic is designed to assist smokers with tobacco dependence to quit smoking. There are many factors that contribute to successfully quitting smoking. The present study found that from a total of 202 respondents who attended the clinic, 42.6% of them successfully quit smoking. In addition, the number of cigarettes smoked per day and a previous quit attempt were significant predictors for successfully quitting smoking. These findings should be taken into consideration in interventions for smokers who wish to quit smoking.","PeriodicalId":152216,"journal":{"name":"Family Medicine and Community Health Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131084558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The health of women and children – an integral part of practice of family and community medicine","authors":"Li Li","doi":"10.15212/FMCH.2018.0122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15212/FMCH.2018.0122","url":null,"abstract":"Received 8 August 2018; Accepted 13 August 2018 The practice of family and community medicine covers all spectrum of health, including that of women and children. In this issue of FMCH, volume 6, issue number 3, four original research articles address various aspects of health in these two subpopulations, highlighting the comprehensiveness of primary healthcare. Specifically, Siuw et al. [1] examined intraocular pressure [IOP] among premenopausal and postmenopausal women in Malaysia and reported a significant impact on IOP by menopause; Ishola et al. [2] developed and validated a new tool to screen postpartum depression among mothers of preterm babies, which demonstrated meritorious validity in the obstetric population; Ghose and Yaya [3] examined factors influencing self-management behavior among hypertensive women in Ghana and found that socioeconomic status significantly impacts women’s adherence to blood pressure-controlling behavior; and Shrivastava and Shrivastava [4] assessed the out-of-pocket expenditure on health care of children younger than 5 years in rural India and found that a large part of out-of-pocket expenditure was for injury and trauma in this age group. Campbell et al. [5] shared their experience in the development and implementation of an integrated primary care-behavioral health program. Their experience is particularly relevant to such practice in rural areas. The Commentary by Michael D. Fetters reflects on experience of teaching practices in undergraduate medical education in the USA and provides a comprehensive and synthesized perspective and useful reference for other countries in their efforts to develop a family medicine workforce [6]. Finally, the China Focus article by Luo et al. [7] provides a comprehensive assessment of the current workforce of general practitioners [GPs] in China and predicts the number of GPs needed in China moving forward. I hope our international readership will find these articles informative and useful.","PeriodicalId":152216,"journal":{"name":"Family Medicine and Community Health Journal","volume":"17-18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125685026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors influencing IOP changes in postmenopausal women","authors":"Chin Pei Siuw, S. Vasudevan, M. Mustapha","doi":"10.15212/FMCH.2018.0110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15212/FMCH.2018.0110","url":null,"abstract":"Objective Intraocular pressure (IOP) is essential in maintaining normal function of the eye. High IOP is associated with glaucoma. Many physiological factors, including age and hormones, can cause variation in IOP. This study was designed to investigate IOP changes in postmenopausal women and the associated factors, which included sex hormones and body mass index (BMI). Methods This was a cross-sectional study. Ninety-eight women were recruited: 49 premenopausal women and 49 postmenopausal women. IOPs between the two groups were compared. The influence of estradiol, progesterone, testosterone, and BMI on IOP was analyzed by a multivariate method. P<0.05 was considered significant. Results The age of the premenopausal group was 47.14±3.93 years and that of the postmenopausal group was 52.10±3.04 years. The other factors in both groups, which included BMI, blood pressure, and central cornea thickness, were not significantly different. The mean IOP in the postmenopausal group was significantly higher than the mean IOP in the premenopausal group (15.26±2.96 mm Hg vs. 14.07±2.65 mm Hg, P=0.04). BMI had a weak positive correlation with IOP in premenopausal women (r=0.31, P=0.03). Estradiol was less likely to influence IOP changes in the postmenopausal group as compared with the premenopausal group (B=−0.021, P=0.002). IOP was not significantly related to progesterone and testosterone levels. Conclusion Menopausal status has a significant effect on IOP, with a significant increase in IOP seen in postmenopausal women as shown by our study. Estradiol was shown to be a protective factor in reducing IOP among postmenopausal women. Through understanding of the influence of postmenopausal status and sex hormones on IOP, glaucoma management may be improved and the target group for disease screening may be more specific. Significance statement Intraocular pressure (IOP) is essential in maintaining normal function of the eye. High IOP is associated with glaucoma. Many physiological factors, including age and hormones, can cause variation in IOP. Menopausal status has a significant effect on IOP, with a significant increase in IOP seen in postmenopausal women as shown by our study. However, changes in IOP with menopausal status do not appear to have any correlation with sex hormone changes, but body mass index had a weak positive correlation with IOP in premenopausal women. Through understanding of the influence of postmenopausal status and body mass index on IOP, glaucoma management may be improved and the target group for disease screening may be more specific.","PeriodicalId":152216,"journal":{"name":"Family Medicine and Community Health Journal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133646879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Number, distribution, and predicted needed number of general practitioners in China*","authors":"Baoling Wu, Hanxiang Gong, Zhenni Luo","doi":"10.15212/FMCH.2018.0120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15212/FMCH.2018.0120","url":null,"abstract":"Objective We aimed to investigate the number and distribution of general practitioners (GPs) in China, and to predict the number of GPs needed in the future. Methods From China Health Statistics Yearbook 2014, China Health Statistics Yearbook 2016 and China Statistical Yearbook 2016, we obtained the number of GPs and the populations in China and each of its regions from 2012 to 2015. IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0 was used to conduct descriptive statistical analysis. Grey model GM(1, 1) and the manpower-to-population ratio method were used to predict the number of GPs needed in China from 2016 to 2020. Results The total number of GPs in China was 109,794 in 2012, 145,511 in 2013, 172,597 in 2014, and 188,649 in 2015. The number increased by 78,855 from 2012 to 2015, and the average annual growth rate was 19.77%. By the end of 2015, of the GPs in all of China and in eastern, central, and western China, those who had achieved a GP qualification certificate following training accounted for 63.76% (120,285/188,649), 60.06% (62,474/104,015), 65.20% (29,565/45,344), and 71.89% (28,246/39,290), respectively, of the total. The number of GPs per 10,000 population in all of China and in eastern, central, and western China was 1.37, 1.83, 1.05, and 1.06, respectively, and the number of GPs needed for all of China and the eastern, central, and western parts would be 86,275, 9787, 40,764, and 34,976, respectively, calculated on the basis of the standard of two GPs per 10,000 population. Grey model GM(1, 1) predicted that, in accordance with the natural growth trend of GPs, the number of GPs in China would be 220,314 in 2016, 253,728 in 2017, 293,101 in 2018, 339,928 in 2019, and 396,228 in 2020. Moreover, the number of GPs in China in 2020 would be 277,000–415,500 if the calculated number of GPs to the population ratio is based on the standard of two to three GPs per 10,000 population. Conclusion In recent years, although the number of GPs has increased rapidly, GPs are still greatly needed in all of China and in eastern, central, and western China. Moreover, the distribution of GPs is not balanced, and the number of qualified GPs is far from enough. Therefore, team building for GPs should be strengthened, and the training system for GPs should be improved. Significance statement Analysis of the number and distribution of general practitioners in China from 2012 to 2015 based on China Health Statistics Yearbook 2014, China Health Statistics Yearbook 2016 and China Statistical Yearbook 2016. Grey model and manpower-to-population ratio approach to predict future demand of general practitioners in China from 2016 to 2020.","PeriodicalId":152216,"journal":{"name":"Family Medicine and Community Health Journal","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131141454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}