ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic)最新文献

Declining Real Interest Rates: The Role of Energy Prices in Energy Importers 实际利率下降:能源价格在能源进口国中的作用

ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-02-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3779685

Myunghyun Kim

引用次数: 0

Job Stability, Earnings Dynamics, and Life-Cycle Savings 工作稳定性、收入动态和生命周期储蓄

ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3734755

M. Kuhn, Gašper Ploj

{"title":"Job Stability, Earnings Dynamics, and Life-Cycle Savings","authors":"M. Kuhn, Gašper Ploj","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3734755","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3734755","url":null,"abstract":"Labor markets are characterized by large heterogeneity in job stability. Some workers hold lifetime jobs, whereas others cycle repeatedly in and out of employment. This paper explores the economic consequences of such heterogeneity. Using Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) data, we document a systematic positive relationship between job stability and wealth accumulation. Per dollar of income, workers with more stable careers hold more wealth. We also develop a life-cycle consumption-saving model with heterogeneity in job stability that is jointly consistent with empirical labor market mobility, earnings, consumption, and wealth dynamics. Using the structural model, we explore the consequences of heterogeneity in job stability at the individual and macroeconomic level. At the individual level, we find that a bad start to the labor market leaves long-lasting scars. The income and consumption level for a worker who starts working life from an unstable job is, even 25 years later, 5 percent lower than that of a worker who starts with a stable job. For the macroeconomy, we find welfare gains of 1.6 percent of lifetime consumption for labor market entrants from a secular decline in U.S. labor market dynamism.","PeriodicalId":151802,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114807633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Inter-temporal Inequality of Opportunity 跨时间的机会不平等

ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3654123

Domenico Moramarco, F. Palmisano, Vito Peragine

引用次数: 2

Life-Cycle Portfolio Choice with Imperfect Predictors 具有不完全预测因子的生命周期投资组合选择

ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3450344

Alexander Michaelides, Yu-xin Zhang

引用次数: 0

Exploitative Contracting in a Life Cycle Savings Model 生命周期节约模式下的剥削性承包

ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3507413

T. Sulka

引用次数: 3

Health, Wealth, and Informality over the Life Cycle 生命周期中的健康、财富和不拘礼节

ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-01-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3523170

Julien Albertini, Xavier Fairise, Anthony Terriau

引用次数: 4

Unfinished Business: A Multicommodity Intertemporal Planner-Doer Framework 未完成的事业:多商品跨期计划者-实干者框架

ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-10-25 DOI: 10.1108/rbf-10-2019-0148

H. Shefrin

{"title":"Unfinished Business: A Multicommodity Intertemporal Planner-Doer Framework","authors":"H. Shefrin","doi":"10.1108/rbf-10-2019-0148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/rbf-10-2019-0148","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThere was unfinished business to address in the version of the planner–doer model developed in Thaler and Shefrin (1981). The unfinished business involved identifying and modeling the crucial roles played by temptation and mental accounting in pensions and savings behavior. The present paper has two objectives.Design/methodology/approachThe first objective is to describe the key lessons learned in transitioning from the model in Thaler and Shefrin (1981) to the model in Shefrin and Thaler (1988), a transition which addressed some of the unfinished business. The second objective is to describe as yet unfinished business associated with developing a multicommodity, intertemporal version of the planner–doer framework, incorporating the concepts of temptation and mental accounting, to replace the neoclassical theory of the consumer.FindingsDoing so will provide a theoretical foundation for nudges related to household budgeting, spending, saving, borrowing and investing.Originality/valueThis paper presents the first behavioral theory of the consumer, focusing on the manner in which consumers actually make decisions about budgeting, spending. borrowing and saving. The approach in the paper can be viewed as a behavioral counterpart to the neoclassical theory of the consumer. In contrast to the neoclassical approach, which assumes that consumers set and follow utility maximizing budgets, the empirical evidence indicates that only a small minority of consumers describe themselves as setting and following budgets. The behavioral theory presented here focuses on the heuristic nature of consumers' actual budgeting processes and extends the approach described in Thaler and Shefrin's 1981 seminal paper on self-control. The core of the present paper is a working paper which Shefrin and Thaler began in 1980, and as such represents unfinished business from that time. The first part of this paper describes earlier unfinished business from the 1981 framework that the authors subsequently addressed as they developed the behavioral life cycle hypothesis during the 1980s.","PeriodicalId":151802,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115532603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

The Life Cycle of Investment Management When 'Today's Alpha is Tomorrow's Beta' 当“今天的Alpha是明天的Beta”时投资管理的生命周期

ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3206237

G. Magkotsios

引用次数: 2

Top Income Concentration and Volatility 最高收入集中度和波动性

ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-02-05 DOI: 10.17016/feds.2018.010

{"title":"Top Income Concentration and Volatility","authors":"","doi":"10.17016/feds.2018.010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2018.010","url":null,"abstract":"Measures of income concentration?such as the share of income received by the highest income families?may be biased by pro-cyclical volatility in annual income. Permanent income, though, can smooth away such volatility and sort families by their usual economic resources. Here, we demonstrate this bias using rolling 3-year panels of IRS tax records from 1997 to 2013 as a proxy for permanent income. For example, one measure of 2012 income concentration?the share of income received by the top 0.1 percent?falls from 11.3 percent to 8.9 percent when families are organized by permanent income instead of annual income. However, the growth in income concentration cannot be explained by this volatility, as growth rates are comparable in the permanent income and annual income groupings during our sample period. Further, the probability of remaining in the highest income groups, while relatively low at the very top of the distribution, increased slightly during our sample period, suggesting that top incomes have become less volatile in this dimension. These results are confirmed using household income data measured in the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF)?a household survey with a large oversample of high-income households and a unique measure of permanent income.","PeriodicalId":151802,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic)","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122728780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

인구고령화가 가계의 자산 및 부채에 미치는 영향 (Impacts of Aging on Households Assets and Liabilities) 人口老龄化对家庭资产和负债的影响(Impacts of Aging on Households Assets and Liabilities)

ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-08-02 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3055579

Se-hyung Jo, Yong-Min Lee, Kim JeongHoon

{"title":"인구고령화가 가계의 자산 및 부채에 미치는 영향 (Impacts of Aging on Households Assets and Liabilities)","authors":"Se-hyung Jo, Yong-Min Lee, Kim JeongHoon","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3055579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3055579","url":null,"abstract":"This paper looks into the impacts of the progress of aging on the financial markets from the perspective of changes in households' asset and liability portfolios. To identify these impacts empirically, this paper sets up a hypothesis and conducts an analysis through a macroeconomic panel model using economic indicators from OECD member countries, and through a microeconomic panel model using Korean labor and income panel data. The results of empirical analysis show that, as the level of population aging increases, the household savings ratio and the share of households' investment in risky assets decline. The financial debt-to-financial assets ratio is found to fall as the level of aging rises, but this fall was statistically insignificant. In the microeconomic panel model, considering the cohort effect, the baby-boomer generation that experienced a period of high economic growth is found to have been able to build up more real and financial assets than the generations before them. In addition, the elderly are found to maintain their financial assets to some extent, rather than reducing them, owing mainly to the precautionary savings and bequest motives, while their real assets show modest downward movements. However, it is estimated that high-income elderly people, belonging to the fifth income quintile group, will reduce their real assets to repay their debts, hold financial assets for retirement savings, and so on. This paper is significant in that it verifies not only the impacts of aging on households' asset and liability structures but also the impacts of factors such as the retirement of baby-boomers in Korea through microeconomic panel data. This is expected to have implications for us in coming up with policy solutions related to aging.","PeriodicalId":151802,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115589326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0