International Journal of Wildland Fire最新文献

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Prescribed fire increases forage mineral content in grazed rangeland 放火可增加放牧牧场的牧草矿物质含量
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学
International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1071/wf24009
Megan R. Wanchuk, Devan Allen McGranahan, Kevin K. Sedivec, Kendall C. Swanson, Torre J. Hovick
{"title":"Prescribed fire increases forage mineral content in grazed rangeland","authors":"Megan R. Wanchuk, Devan Allen McGranahan, Kevin K. Sedivec, Kendall C. Swanson, Torre J. Hovick","doi":"10.1071/wf24009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf24009","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>Sustainable rangeland management balances production and conservation. While a broad literature describesthe conservation benefits of prescribed fire, benefits for livestock production have emerged more slowly. Mineral nutrition is important for livestock health and performance, but the impact of prescribed fire on mineral concentration of forages, especially in the northern US Great Plains, remains unknown.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>We investigated how burning affects the mineral concentration of forage early and late in the growing season.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>Data were collected on mixed-grass prairie in south-central North Dakota, USA. Vegetation was clipped from recently burned, 1 year post-fire, 2 years post-fire, and not-yet-burned patches at the same sampling points in spring and late summer. Samples were analysed for calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, potassium, copper, iron, manganese, and zinc concentration.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>Burning increased forage mineral concentration across most minerals. Phosphorous, potassium, copper and zinc were higher in burned areas in late spring and summer; calcium, magnesium and manganese were only higher during the late summer; Late-season iron levels increased with time since fire.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>Prescribed fire has a positive effect on forage mineral content.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>Prescribed fire has the potential to reduce mineral supplementation costs and improve cow performance.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141547982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A comment on the use of visually assessed fuel hazard ratings and scores for Australian fire management and research 关于在澳大利亚火灾管理和研究中使用目测燃料危害等级和分数的评论
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学
International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1071/wf23164
Miguel G. Cruz
{"title":"A comment on the use of visually assessed fuel hazard ratings and scores for Australian fire management and research","authors":"Miguel G. Cruz","doi":"10.1071/wf23164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23164","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>Assessment of fuel hazard has become the dominant method of describing Australian forest fuel complexes, despite a lack of evidence supporting the veracity of its underpinning assumptions.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>To analyse and discuss the merits of fuel hazard ratings and scores in representing measurable fuel characteristics, such as fuel load and fire behaviour potential.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>Published findings were reviewed, and available data analysed to investigate the validity of the Australian fuel hazard assessment concepts.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>Multiple published studies showed the Australian fuel hazard assessment methods to be subjective and non-replicable. All available evidence shows no relationship between fuel hazard ratings and fuel quantity. No relationship between the ratings and fire behaviour potential was found.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>The principles underpinning the use of fuel hazard ratings for fuel assessment were shown to be unfounded. The ratings cannot be converted into physical fuel characteristics or fire behaviour potential, and its application in Australian fire management is unwarranted.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141547981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spot ignition of a wildland fire and its transition to propagation 野地火灾的点燃及其向蔓延的过渡
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学
International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1071/wf23207
Supan Wang, Maria Thomsen, Xinyan Huang, Carlos Fernandez-Pello
{"title":"Spot ignition of a wildland fire and its transition to propagation","authors":"Supan Wang, Maria Thomsen, Xinyan Huang, Carlos Fernandez-Pello","doi":"10.1071/wf23207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23207","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>The prediction of the propagation of wildland fires is an important socio-technical problem. Wildland fires are often initiated by small spot ignition sources and then spread to larger burning areas.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>Experiments are conducted for the spotting ignition of a forest surface fuel (pine needles) in a relatively large (up to 1 m<sup>2</sup>), horizontal laboratory bed, and the subsequent fire spread without wind. The spotting ignition sources are a cluster of steel particles, an ember and a small pilot flame.</p><strong> Key results and conclusions</strong><p>Wildfire spread has an initial acceleration phase, with the growth of the burned area in the fuel bed following a power law dependence in time, almost independent of the ignition source. Comparison with previous larger-scale experiments and FARSITE modelling of the fire spread over similar fuel beds shows that the power function with time describes well the combined results of the initial wildfire growth and the transition to larger fire propagation for relatively long times.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>The Rothermel equation under different environmental conditions may be extended to describe the initial accelerative growth of a spot fire. This work supports the modelling of fire propagation that currently is geared to a later time in the development of a wildfire.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141530545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of live/dead condition, moisture content and particle size on flammability of gorse (Ulex europaeus) measured with a cone calorimeter 用锥形量热计测量活/死状态、含水量和颗粒大小对戈壁草(Ulex europaeus)可燃性的影响
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学
International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1071/wf23167
Katharine O. Melnik, Andres Valencia, Marwan Katurji, Daniel Nilsson, Greg Baker, Oleg M. Melnik, H. Grant Pearce, Tara M. Strand
{"title":"Effect of live/dead condition, moisture content and particle size on flammability of gorse (Ulex europaeus) measured with a cone calorimeter","authors":"Katharine O. Melnik, Andres Valencia, Marwan Katurji, Daniel Nilsson, Greg Baker, Oleg M. Melnik, H. Grant Pearce, Tara M. Strand","doi":"10.1071/wf23167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23167","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>Live fuel comprises a significant portion of the fuel consumed in forest and scrub crown fires. However, its flammability remains poorly understood. Although live fuel differs from dead fuel in moisture content, chemical composition, cellular structure and physiological characteristics, its higher moisture content masks the effect of other characteristics on its flammability.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>The aim of the study was to delineate and assess the effects of live/dead condition, moisture content and particle size on flammability of gorse (<i>Ulex europaeus</i> L.).</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>Live and dead gorse material of three size classes (0–3, 3–6, and 6–10 mm in diameter) at six moisture contents (0, 10, 25, 50, 75 and 100%) was tested in a cone calorimeter to evaluate its flammability using new sample preparation and moisture conditioning techniques.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>On average, live fuel ignited 21% slower, reached 11% higher peak heat release rate, and had a 12% shorter burn duration than dead fuel of the same moisture content. These differences were most pronounced in coarser material.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>For gorse, fine dead fuels increase the likelihood of ignition, fine live fuels contribute to high burning intensities, and coarser live and dead fuels prolong combustion.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>These findings highlight the need to account for flammability differences between live and dead fuels in fire behaviour models beyond those driven by variations in moisture content.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141505751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Future fire events are likely to be worse than climate projections indicate – these are some of the reasons why 未来的火灾事件很可能比气候预测显示的更严重--以下是部分原因
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学
International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1071/wf23138
Mika Peace, Lachlan McCaw
{"title":"Future fire events are likely to be worse than climate projections indicate – these are some of the reasons why","authors":"Mika Peace, Lachlan McCaw","doi":"10.1071/wf23138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23138","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>Climate projections signal longer fire seasons and an increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days for much of the world including Australia.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>Here we argue that heatwaves, dynamic fire–atmosphere interactions and increased fuel availability caused by drought will amplify potential fire behaviour well beyond projections based on calculations of afternoon forest fire danger derived from climate models.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>We review meteorological dynamics contributing to enhanced fire behaviour during heatwaves, drawing on examples of dynamical processes driving fire behaviour during the Australian Black Summer bushfires of 2019–20.</p><strong> Results</strong><p>Key dynamical processes identified include: nocturnal low-level jets, deep, unstable planetary boundary layers and fire–atmosphere coupling.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>The future scenario we contend is long windows of multi-day fire events where overnight suppression is less effective and fire perimeters will expand continuously and aggressively over multiple days and nights.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>Greater overnight fire activity and multi-day events present strategic and tactical challenges for fire management agencies including having to expand resourcing for overnight work, manage personnel fatigue and revise training to identify conditions conducive to unusually active fire behaviour overnight. Effective messaging will be critical to minimise accidental fire ignition during heatwaves and to alert the community to the changing fire environment</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wildland fire evacuations in Canada from 1980 to 2021 1980 年至 2021 年加拿大野地火灾疏散情况
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学
International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1071/wf23097
Amy Cardinal Christianson, Lynn M. Johnston, Jacqueline A. Oliver, David Watson, David Young, Heather MacDonald, John Little, Bruce Macnab, Noemie Gonzalez Bautista
{"title":"Wildland fire evacuations in Canada from 1980 to 2021","authors":"Amy Cardinal Christianson, Lynn M. Johnston, Jacqueline A. Oliver, David Watson, David Young, Heather MacDonald, John Little, Bruce Macnab, Noemie Gonzalez Bautista","doi":"10.1071/wf23097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23097","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>Every year, people in Canada are evacuated due to wildland fires to avoid death, injury, and illness from fire and smoke events.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>In this paper, we provide an overview of evacuations recorded in the Canadian Wildland Fire Evacuation Database between 1980 and 2021.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>Our analysis covers evacuations in Canada from 1980 to 2021. We provide summary statistics including number of evacuations and evacuees, evacuation duration, seasonality, evacuation causes, community types, structure losses, and fatalities. We also investigate temporal and spatial patterns.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>Between 1980 and 2021, there were 1393 wildland fire evacuation events with 576,747 people evacuated. During this period, there was an overall increase in frequency of evacuations, number of evacuees, and duration of events. Structure loss occurred during 194 evacuation events, with 4105 homes burned. We estimate wildland fire evacuations cost at least CAD3.7 billion (excluding structural losses), jumping to CAD4.6 billion if we include productivity losses. Indigenous peoples are disproportionately impacted in wildfire evacuations compared to the general Canadian population.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>Wildland fire evacuations continue to occur across Canada and are increasing.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>The findings from this study give us a better understanding of the characteristics of wildland fire evacuations, which can help guide emergency management.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Uncharted territory: governance opportunities for wildfire management and the case of Cyprus 未知领域:野火管理的治理机会和塞浦路斯案例
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学
International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-05-30 DOI: 10.1071/wf23177
Judith A. Kirschner, Toddi A. Steelman, Iris Charalambidou, Salih Gücel, Petros Petrou, Kostakis Papageorgiou, Achilleas Karayiannis, George Boustras
{"title":"Uncharted territory: governance opportunities for wildfire management and the case of Cyprus","authors":"Judith A. Kirschner, Toddi A. Steelman, Iris Charalambidou, Salih Gücel, Petros Petrou, Kostakis Papageorgiou, Achilleas Karayiannis, George Boustras","doi":"10.1071/wf23177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23177","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global environmental and social change are pushing wildfire activity and impact beyond known trajectories. Here, we conducted a targeted review to distill five wildfire challenges that we argue form opportunities for their governance (research aim 1). We exemplified our arguments by drawing from the case of Cyprus (research aim 2), a small island country in the south-east European Mediterranean Basin at risk of extreme wildfire impact. Findings indicate that burning for social and ecological resource benefits, innovative management paradigms and anticipatory governance systems offer actionable solutions to the wildfire paradox and the limits of suppression. Local adaptive institutions and a reconceptualisation of wildfire as a risk and process beyond technocratic interpretations are necessary to account for broader social conditions shaping wildfire regimes and community impact. Governance systems that accommodate collective action have proven suitable to address multiple wildfire complexities linked with different socio-economic systems and values. A systematic literature review, policy review, and qualitative data collection on wildfire management in Cyprus track back to the initial framing. Our case study offers insights for tackling wildfires with actionable steps through overarching governance systems, and illustrates the potential for change in thinking of and acting on wildfire in flammable landscapes globally.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141254633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Long-term post-fire succession of reptiles in an urban remnant in south-western Australia 澳大利亚西南部一处城市遗迹中爬行动物的长期火灾后演替
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学
International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1071/wf24033
Robert A. Davis, Michael D. Craig
{"title":"Long-term post-fire succession of reptiles in an urban remnant in south-western Australia","authors":"Robert A. Davis, Michael D. Craig","doi":"10.1071/wf24033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf24033","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>Reptile responses to fire may differ between remnants and contiguous vegetation but this is poorly understood.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>We aimed to explore long-term (≤15 years) post-fire responses of reptiles in an urban <i>Banksia</i> woodland remnant.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>We trapped reptiles for 10 nights in November and December each year between 2009 and 2023 inclusive (except 2014 and 2019) to estimate relative abundance. We used mixed models to explore differences between unburnt and burnt sites and changes in both over time.</p><strong> Key results and conclusions</strong><p>The reptile community showed short-term negative responses to fire, but communities had returned to their pre-fire state within 3 years. Two species showed short-term (3 and 5 years respectively) negative responses to fire while two species showed positive responses; one in the first year post-fire only, and the other in sites &gt;8 years post-fire. There did not appear to be consistent differences in fire responses between this study and studies conducted in contiguous <i>Banksia</i> woodlands, although differences in study designs renders this conclusion equivocal.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>Reptile communities in <i>Banksia</i> woodland remnants, and the species they contain appear to be relatively robust to a wide range of fire regimes.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141193405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Framework for a savanna burning emissions abatement methodology applicable to fire-prone miombo woodlands in southern Africa 适用于南部非洲易发生火灾的 miombo 林地的稀树草原燃烧减排方法框架
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学
International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1071/wf23193
Jeremy Russell-Smith, Cameron Yates, Roland Vernooij, Tom Eames, Diane Lucas, Keddy Mbindo, Sarah Banda, Kanembwa Mukoma, Adrian Kaluka, Alex Liseli, Jomo Mafoko, Othusitse Lekoko, Robin Beatty, Mirjam Kaestli, Guido van der Werf, Natasha Ribeiro
{"title":"Framework for a savanna burning emissions abatement methodology applicable to fire-prone miombo woodlands in southern Africa","authors":"Jeremy Russell-Smith, Cameron Yates, Roland Vernooij, Tom Eames, Diane Lucas, Keddy Mbindo, Sarah Banda, Kanembwa Mukoma, Adrian Kaluka, Alex Liseli, Jomo Mafoko, Othusitse Lekoko, Robin Beatty, Mirjam Kaestli, Guido van der Werf, Natasha Ribeiro","doi":"10.1071/wf23193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23193","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background and aims</strong><p>To assess development of a robust emissions accounting framework for expansive miombo woodland savannas covering ~2 million km<sup>2</sup> of southern Africa that typically are burnt under relatively severe late dry season (LDS) conditions.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>A detailed site-based study of fuel accumulation, combustion and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factor parameters under early dry season (EDS) and LDS conditions along a central rainfall-productivity and associated miombo vegetation structural and floristics gradient, from lower rainfallsites in northern Botswana to higher rainfall sites in northern Zambia.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>Assembled field data inform core components of the proposed emissions reduction framework: fuel and combustion conditions sampled across the vegetation/productivity gradient can be represented by three defined Vegetation Fuel Types (VFTs); fuel accumulation, combustion and emissions parameters are presented for these. Applying this framework for an illustrative case, GHG emissions (t CO<sub>2</sub>-e) from EDS fires were one-third to half those of LDS fires per unit area in eligible miombo VFTs.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>Our accounting framework supports undertaking EDS fire management to significantly reduce emissions and, realistically, burnt extent at landscape scales. We consider application of presented data to development of formal emissions abatement accounting methods, linkages with potential complementary woody biomass and soil organic carbon sequestration approaches, and necessary caveats concerning implementation issues.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140883794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Near-term fire weather forecasting in the Pacific Northwest using 500-hPa map types 利用 500-HPa 地图类型进行西北太平洋地区近期火灾天气预报
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学
International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1071/wf23117
Reed Humphrey, John Saltenberger, John T. Abatzoglou, Alison Cullen
{"title":"Near-term fire weather forecasting in the Pacific Northwest using 500-hPa map types","authors":"Reed Humphrey, John Saltenberger, John T. Abatzoglou, Alison Cullen","doi":"10.1071/wf23117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23117","url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>Near-term forecasts of fire danger based on predicted surface weather and fuel dryness are widely used to support the decisions of wildfire managers. The incorporation of synoptic-scale upper-air patterns into predictive models may provide additional value in operational forecasting.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>In this study, we assess the impact of synoptic-scale upper-air patterns on the occurrence of large wildfires and widespread fire outbreaks in the US Pacific Northwest. Additionally, we examine how discrete upper-air map types can augment subregional models of wildfire risk.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>We assess the statistical relationship between synoptic map types, surface weather and wildfire occurrence. Additionally, we compare subregional fire danger models to identify the predictive value contributed by upper-air map types.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>We find that these map types explain variation in wildfire occurrence not captured by fire danger indices based on surface weather alone, with specific map types associated with significantly higher expected daily ignition counts in half of the subregions.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>We observe that incorporating upper-air map types enhances the explanatory power of subregional fire danger models.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>Our approach provides value to operational wildfire management and provides a template for how these methods may be implemented in other regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140838634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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